On April 12, Eastern time, the United States announced a memorandum of understanding to exempt computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits and other products from "reciprocal tariffs".
From the perspective of beneficiary sectors, the three industrial chains of consumer electronics, servers and semiconductors have brought significant benefits.
Interpretation of U.S. tariff exemption policy to China and analysis of the beneficiary industrial chain
1. Policy background and core content
On April 12, Eastern time, the United States announced an exemption list, implementing "reciprocal tariff" exemptions for computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits and other products. Key takeaways from the policy:
Scope of Exemptions
: Covering the core links of the industrial chain such as consumer electronics, servers, and semiconductors.
Tariff rules
Server industry chain: If the product contains more than 20% U.S. content (such as NVIDIA GPU), it can be exempted from tariffs.
Semiconductor industry chain: Although the tax rate adjustment has not been clarified yet, the policy guidance has accelerated domestic substitution.
Strategic intent
: Alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. and maintain the stability of the global technology supply chain.
2. In-depth analysis of the beneficiary industrial chain
(1) Consumer electronics industry chain: cost pressure eased, recovery expectations strengthened
Core Logic:
The cost pressure of Apple's industrial chain has been reduced, and the tariff impact has eased due to the superposition of overseas production capacity layout (such as India and Vietnam).
Global consumer electronics demand is picking up, with China's smartphone shipments in 2024 +5.6% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of AI mobile phones/PCs increasing.
Key Segments & Companies:
subdivisions | leading company (code) | core logic and highlights |
|---|---|---|
| OEM assembly | Luxshare Precision (002475) | Deeply bound to Apple, undertake iPhone/Watch assembly, global production capacity layout (India/Vietnam). |
| Acoustics/VR | Goertek (002241) | the main supplier of Apple's acoustic components and the global VR/AR foundry leader (Meta/Oculus core partner). |
| PCB | Pengding Holdings (002938) | the world's largest PCB manufacturer, Apple's OLED screen for the second supply, leading technology + production capacity advantage. |
| panel< | td cms-style="td">Apple's OLED secondary supply, flexible screen technology breakthrough, market share is expected to increase to 15% in 2024. | |
| battery | Desay Battery (000049) | consumer electronics battery leader, cutting into Tesla's energy storage supply chain, technology + customer double barriers. |
Other beneficiary targets: Lens Technology (glass cover plate), USI (SiP packaging), Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing (precision structural parts), etc.
(2) Server industry chain: AI-driven demand, liquid cooling technology exploded
Core Logic:
Tariff Exclusion Rules
: AI servers with more than 20% US content are tax-free (e.g. NVIDIA GPU servers).
Liquid cooling technology
Driven by policies, the market size of liquid-cooled servers in China may reach $16.2 billion in 2029.
Key Segments & Companies:
subdivisions | leading company (code) | core logic and highlights |
|---|---|---|
| AI Server Foundry | FII (601138) | It is a global AI server foundry leader, a core supplier of Microsoft/Amazon, and a leader in liquid cooling technology. |
| PCB/Optical Module | Zhongji InnoLight (300308) | the world's leading optical module, with a large volume of 800G products, benefiting from the explosion of demand for AI data centers. |
| power/cooling | Invic (002837) | NVIDIA's designated supplier of liquid cooling components, and the precision temperature control technology covers all scenarios of the data center. |
| chip/hashrate | Cambrian (688256) | pioneer of domestic substitution of AI chips, and Siyuan series chips are suitable for mainstream AI training scenarios. |
Other beneficiary targets: Inspur Information (server), Victory Giant Technology (GPU PCB), Dawning Digital Innovation (immersion liquid cooling), etc.
(3) Semiconductor industry chain: domestic substitution is accelerating, and policy catalysis is clear
Core Logic:
Tariff implications
: The United States exempts some products, but the pressure of long-term technology blockade is still there, and the fields with low localization rate (analog chips, equipment parts) benefit.
Autonomous and controllable
: The China Semiconductor Association promotes the implementation of rules of origin and accelerates the localization of wafer tape-outs (such as Hua Hong Semiconductor).
Key Segments & Companies:
subdivisions | leading company (code) | core logic and highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment/Materials | NAURA (002371) | The leading domestic etching equipment, the world's leading plasma etching machine, covering the process below 14nm. |
| memory chip | GigaDevice (603986) | the top three in the world for NOR Flash, and the mass production of self-developed DRAM, benefiting from the growth of domestic substitution + AIoT demand. |
| analog chip | Shengbang Co., Ltd. (300661) | a breakthrough in the localization of high-precision ADCs/DACs, and power management chips cover the consumer/industrial field. |
| automotive chips | Weir Co., Ltd. (603501) | CMOS image sensor is the second in the world, with a market share of more than 30% in the automotive CIS, bound to Tesla/BYD. |
Other beneficiary targets: SMIC (wafer foundry), JCET (packaging and testing), Jiangfeng Electronics (target), etc.
3. Policy impact and investment strategy
Short-term opportunities:
Consumer electronics
: Focus on Apple's industrial chain (Luxshare Precision, Goertek) and AI hardware (Industrial Fortune, Zhongji Innolight).
Semiconductors
: Focus on domestic substitution (North Huachuang, GigaDevice) and equipment parts (Jiangfeng Electronics).
Long-term trends:
Liquid cooling technology
: Under the explosion of computing power in data centers, Invic and Sugon Digital have significant technical barriers.
AI chips
: Cambrian and Jingjiawei benefited from the wave of domestic GPU/ASIC substitution.
Risk Warning:
The U.S. tariff policy on China has been repeated, and geopolitical risks have intensified.
The recovery of consumer electronics demand is less than expected, and the cycle of semiconductor inventory depletion is extended.
Data Description:
The selection of concept stocks is based on public policy documents and industry chain research, and does not constitute investment advice.
Dynamic tracking needs to be combined with the industry's prosperity (such as AI computing power demand) and the company's ability to deliver performance.
Conclusion: The U.S. tariff exemption policy will boost the consumer electronics and server industry chain in the short term, and the logic of domestic substitution of semiconductors will be strengthened in the long term. It is recommended to focus on the layout of high-barrier leaders (Industrial Fortune Federation, North Huachuang) and technology scarcity targets (Zhongji Innolight, Cambrian).
(Redirected from: Little Doctor of Finance).
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