Macro risks are still difficult to lift, and the center of gravity of the lithium carbonate spot market has shifted downward
DATE:  Apr 09 2025

Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures

The text of the research report

1. Market review and operation suggestions

Lithium carbonate futures increased their positions and fell, the main contract fell below 70,000 at the minimum, the center of gravity of the spot market shifted downward, electricity carbon fell 200 to 72400, industrial carbon fell 200 to 70450, the spot premium to the main force expanded, and the downstream material factories considered the follow-up price change trend, and the current wait-and-see attitude.

The price sentiment of upstream lithium salt plants is still high, and there are few transactions. The mine price was flat compared with the previous trading day, and the production loss of the purchased mica and spodumene salt plant widened to 8291 and 3316 yuan/ton, and the price of cathode materials followed the price of lithium carbonate downward.

In the future, the spot price of lithium carbonate has been close to the lowest point last year, that is, the price when the Yichun mine of Ningde Times announced the suspension of production, and the current futures price has also fallen below the cost price.

Second, the industry news

1. On April 8, EVE responded to the "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States, saying that the current proportion of direct exports to the United States is less than 4%. In the short term, the company and its U.S. customers mainly use the FOB (fob) model for settlement, under which the company does not bear the cost of tariffs, so the current tariff policy has no cost impact on the delivery of existing contracts. EVE said that it will accelerate the completion of the global layout and overseas production capacity construction, strengthen the first-mover advantage of the company's overseas factories, and at the same time do a good job of coordination with overseas customers, while continuing to give full play to the company's advantages in the CLS (cooperative operation) business model, and meet the battery supply needs of overseas customers through technology licensing and services.

2. Foreign media reported on April 3 that Artemis Resources and GreenTech Metals have signed a binding agreement to integrate the lithium mining interests of the two parties in their respective mining rights near Karratha in the western part of the Pilbara in Western Australia. The lithium interests will be integrated into a lithium exploration joint venture called Andover Lithium. Andover will hold the largest lithium exploration tenement package in West Pilbara, with the portfolio covering more than 420 square kilometres along strike. This tenement portfolio occupies a significant portion of the Karratha Roebourne lithium corridor and includes six known lithium prospect zones with four zones with significant outcropping spodumene pegmatites.

3. Trina Solar (688599) said on the interactive platform that the company has a sufficient scale of cell module inventory in the United States so far, and its cost is not expected to be affected by the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States. The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a certain increase in product prices, which will have a positive impact on the profitability of battery module inventories in the United States. In addition, the company's joint venture TOPCon cell module plant in Indonesia (currently with an annual production capacity of 1GW) is not affected by the "double reversal" of the four Southeast Asian countries, and the Indonesian tax rate is relatively low among the proposed new tax rates announced this time, and the Indonesian plant has a relative competitive advantage.

(Redirected from: Quhe Futures).

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