"Last year, the United States imported 54.3 GW of photovoltaic modules, mainly from four Southeast Asian countries. At that time, the United States had implemented a series of crackdown policies on photovoltaic products in four Southeast Asian countries, with the 'double anti-dumping' as the core, and the superposition of 301 tariffs. Therefore, photovoltaic main chain enterprises have previously expected tariff issues. ”

On April 7, in response to the latest "tariff stick" raised by the United States, a relevant person from Aiko Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), a leading photovoltaic cell and module company, told Jian News reporters.

On April 2, local time, the U.S. government announced the imposition of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners, including a benchmark tariff of 10% across the board. High tariffs on specific countries, including 34% tariffs on Chinese goods; 20% tariff on EU goods, 24% tariff on Japanese goods, 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, 49% tariff on Cambodia, etc.

The above-mentioned base tariffs will come into effect on April 5, 2025, and the additional "equivalent tariffs" will come into effect on April 9.

This tariff policy will have far-reaching consequences for global economies. On April 7, global stock markets fell sharply, with China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index closing down more than 7%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling more than 9%, and the ChiNext Index falling more than 12%.

In recent years, China's photovoltaic and other new energy industries have developed rapidly and have occupied a leading position in the world. According to Jiemian News, the tariffs imposed by the United States have the most direct impact on the photovoltaic and other new energy industries, which may push up the export cost of products. However, the United States has been imposing high tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products for a long time, and the industry generally has a certain psychological preparation for this, so there is not much pessimistic feedback.

"Other industries may be caught off guard by the new U.S. tariff policy, and the domestic photovoltaic industry has been in a battle with the United States." A person from a photovoltaic company said to Jiemian News.

As early as 2012, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of Chinese photovoltaic products. After 2018, on the basis of the "double reversal", 201 tariffs and 301 tariffs were also superimposed. Under the high tax rate, Chinese photovoltaic companies have detoured Southeast Asia to export to the United States, but the channel has gradually "blocked", and the United States has once again launched a "double anti-dumping" investigation on Southeast Asian photovoltaic products in the past two years.

Image source: China Securities

According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the United States has not been among the top 10 export markets for Chinese modules in recent years.

"LONGi's sales area has a global layout and will not be significantly dependent on a single market." On April 7, in response to the tariffs imposed by the United States, a person related to LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), a leading module and silicon wafer company, also told Jiemian News that in addition to China, Europe and the United States, other fast-growing regions, such as the Middle East and Africa, have been the focus of LONGi's development in the past two years.

The latest research report of China Securities pointed out that Trump's tariffs have an important impact on the new energy industry mainly in two aspects: first, who bears the cost of tariffs, if most of them are borne by American customers, the gross profit margin of China's new energy enterprises will be limited. On the other hand, after the imposition of tariffs, the actual local selling price of lithium battery, photovoltaic and energy storage products will increase, and the economy will decline, which may suppress some demand. In the long run, the expansion of new energy companies in the United States may be the most effective means to deal with the current round of tariff shocks.

In the context of the intensification of trade barriers in the United States and the unsmooth path to Southeast Asia, many Chinese companies have previously set up factories in the United States.

LONGi Green Energy told Jiemian News that it has established a 5 GW photovoltaic module factory in Ohio in the United States through a joint venture with American energy giant Invenergy, mainly producing PERC modules, with both production and sales booming. In the short term, U.S. factories may continue to use PERC capacity to meet market demand, but in the long term, BC technology will need to be gradually introduced to remain competitive.

"We are still cautiously evaluating whether the company is deployed in the United States, how much resources to invest, and how much production capacity to establish. The U.S. market is attractive, but it has complex geopolitical implications. LONGi Green Energy thinks.

The U.S. is a highly profitable market for the new energy industry. According to data provided by LONGi Green Energy, in the past two years, module prices in the US have been about three times higher than in other places.

According to Jiemian News statistics, Chinese companies currently have photovoltaic production capacity in the United States also include JinkoSolar (688223.SH), JA Solar (002459.SZ), Canadian Solar (688472.SH), Trina Solar (688599.SH), TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), Runyang Co., Ltd., etc.

According to data from Soochow Securities, the existing domestic PV production capacity in the United States is mainly concentrated in the module side, and most of the core components such as cells rely on imports, and finally the module manufacturing is completed in the United States. As of January 2025, mainstream PV companies have a total planned module production capacity of more than 68 GW in the United States, and 40 GW has been put into operation. Among them, Chinese and U.S.-funded enterprises plan to exceed 28 GW each.

In response to Jiemian News, module leader JA Solar said that in order to cope with the increasingly severe risk of international trade frictions, it will accelerate its globalization strategy and actively promote the global layout of production capacity on the basis of the global sales and service network system that has been built.

JA Solar will start a project in Oman with an annual production capacity of 6 GW of solar cells and 3 GW of solar modules in late 2024, with plans to start production by the end of 2025.

Trina Solar's insiders responded to Jiemian News that as of now, it has a sufficient scale of battery module inventory in the United States, and its cost is not expected to be affected by the U.S. tariffs.

"This 'reciprocal tariff' may bring about a certain increase in product prices, which will have a positive impact on the profit of battery module inventory in the United States." Trina Solar believes that in addition, the company's joint venture TOPCon cell module plant in Indonesia (currently with an annual production capacity of 1 GW) will not be affected by the "double reversal" of the four Southeast Asian countries, and the Indonesian factory has a relatively low tax rate among the proposed new tax rates announced this time, and the Indonesian factory has a relative competitive advantage.

Trina Solar said that on the whole, companies with stronger forward-looking strategic research and judgment and global operation capabilities can relatively better cope with the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States on the world.

Image source: Soochow Securities

A person close to TCL Zhonghuan, the leader of silicon wafers, told Jiemian News that the company's direct sales of silicon wafers to the United States account for a very small proportion and are limited by the impact. At present, the company has a global layout in the Middle East, Europe and the United States, radiating the North American and European markets, and its plan will accelerate the process of cooperation in localized manufacturing.

Aiko also told Jiemian News that its cell business and ABC module business account for a very low proportion of direct sales to the United States, and the company has no overseas production capacity, so it will be less affected.

The company gave three main planned responses. First, it will further expand the non-US market, continue to deepen its cultivation in Europe, the Middle East and the "Belt and Road" countries, and will focus on efficient technology iteration, continue to consolidate its leading position in photoelectric conversion efficiency, and hedge the impact of tariffs on the industry through technology premiums.

Second, it will further strengthen the lean cost control of domestic production capacity, deepen the domestic market, and actively respond to the photovoltaic "leader plan" that focuses on the efficiency threshold. Third, we will strengthen the establishment and improvement of the BC ecosystem and actively explore the asset-light operation model, so as to accelerate the improvement of the penetration rate of BC technology.

Some industry insiders also mentioned to Jiemian News that under the highly uncertain situation of relevant policies in the United States, they will consider giving up this part of the market in the short term and focusing on China.

Another business person said that if you build factories overseas, you can consider overseas countries with lower tax rates, but this practice may also lead to "encirclement and interception" in the United States.

Trump and his government advisers have repeatedly stated publicly that the purpose of implementing "reciprocal tariffs" is to reduce the trade deficit, increase government revenue, protect U.S. industry and national security, and promote the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing to improve the competitiveness of U.S. companies. In his previous speech, Trump said that strengthening the domestic industrial base of the United States, opening foreign markets, breaking down foreign trade barriers, and ultimately increasing domestic production would mean stronger competition and lower consumer prices.

At present, Chinese photovoltaic companies still have strong competitiveness in the world, the United States has a high cost of building factories, and it is difficult for the main industrial chain to achieve self-sufficiency in the short term.

On the afternoon of April 7, in response to the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" of the United States, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press conference that the United States is practicing hegemony in the name of "reciprocity", sacrificing the legitimate interests of all countries, serving its own selfish interests, and putting "America First" above international rules, which is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying.

Lin Jian pointed out that the implementation of differentiated tax rates by the United States violates the WTO's principle of non-discrimination, seriously undermines the normal international economic and trade order and the security and stability of the global production and supply chain, seriously undermines the multilateral trading system, and seriously impacts the process of world economic recovery.