The domestic semiconductor equipment industry may usher in a DeepSeek moment.

Recently, at the 2025 Shanghai International Semiconductor Exhibition (SEMICON China 2025), a company named Shenzhen Xinkailai Industrial Machinery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinkailai") was very popular, and the company's booth attracted many visitors to check in, and the exhibition area was surrounded by water. On platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu, traffic topics such as "big breakthrough in lithography machines" are also highly related to Xinkailai.

During the exhibition, Xinkailai released 31 equipment covering almost the entire process of semiconductor manufacturing, and named it "Famous Mountain Series" (Wuyi Mountain, Emei Mountain, Putuo Mountain, Mogan Mountain, etc.), which caused industry shocks. On March 27th and 28th, a number of "new Kailai concept stocks" drove the lithography machine and semiconductor sectors to rise.

However, most of the industry analysts interviewed by the reporter of China Business News said that they have not seen the direct impact of Xinkailai on the industry. "Xinkailai has not been established for a long time and is involved in a wide range of products, but every process equipment on the production line needs long-term testing and validation." In the face of the possible impact of the new Kailai, the leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer North Huachuang (002371. SZ) recently replied to investors on the investor relations platform.

"It's a very promising company." Zhang Guobin, founder and CEO of Electronic Innovation Network, said that semiconductor equipment needs upstream and downstream support, and some of the media have recently praised Xinkailai too high, "The progress of China's semiconductor equipment is the effort of all Chinese semiconductor people, don't think that it is a company that can undertake the heavy responsibility of breaking through the blockade of China's semiconductors, which is unrealistic and impossible." ”

"National Team".

According to public information, Xinkailai was established in Pinghu Street, Longgang District, Shenzhen in June 2022, and its parent company is Shenzhen Xinkailai Technology Co., Ltd., which was established in August 2021, and the legal person of both companies is Yu Hai. According to the company's investigation data, the registered capital of Xinkailai Technology Co., Ltd. is 1.5 billion yuan, which is 100% held by Shenzhen Shenxinheng Technology Investment Co., Ltd., and Shenxin is 100% held by Shenzhen Major Industrial Investment Group Co., Ltd.

According to the official website of Shenzhen Major Industrial Investment Group, the group has successfully introduced and invested in a number of major leading integrated circuit industry projects such as the National Third-Generation Semiconductor Technology Innovation Center, Tianke, SMIC Shenzhen, Founder Microelectronics and China Resources Microelectronics. The importance it attaches to the semiconductor industry is evident from this.

In addition, New Kailai also has a relationship with Huawei. Relevant information shows that this seemingly "out-of-the-box" company was actually born out of Huawei's "Starlight Engineering Division".

According to the company's official website, the core team of Xinkailai Technology Co., Ltd. has more than 20 years of experience in electronic equipment technology development.

The reporter noticed that in recent years, almost all domestic semiconductor companies have tried to stay away from the spotlight and keep a low profile, fearing being sniped from abroad. The new Kailai is more alternative, playing the slogan of "Core World, New Choice, New Kailai".

The large area of its booth and the large number of products on display undoubtedly reflect that Xinkailai, a little-known company, may become an industry dark horse that tears through the "iron curtain" blockade of American technology.

Li Zhoujian, president of Xinkailai Quantitative Testing Equipment Product Line, once said that Xinkailai Quantitative Testing Equipment has achieved localization in core components, and every breakthrough was regarded as an insurmountable mountain before 2021. This time, Xinkailai announced that its equipment is 100% independent and controllable, and all core components are independently developed or obtained through strategic partners.

"Because it originated from Huawei, our employees have innovation genes in their bones." Zhang Guobin said, but don't over-deify a company, China's semiconductor industry today is tens of trillions of yuan of investment, nearly a million people's efforts for decades, especially the equipment industry, more need to respect the objective law.

"A generation of technology, a generation of materials, a generation of equipment".

It is understood that the product line disclosed by Xinkailai at this year's Semicon China Conference includes epitaxial deposition EPI equipment (Emeishan series), atomic layer deposition ALD equipment (Alishan series), physical vapor deposition PVD equipment (Putuoshan series), etching ETCH equipment (Wuyishan series), thin film deposition CVD equipment (Changbaishan series) and quantity testing equipment.

These new product names point to a critical technology node in the semiconductor manufacturing process. For example, EPI epitaxial layer technology is a key process for advanced processes and third-generation semiconductors, which directly affects chip performance and reliability. CVD chemical vapor deposition is one of the most demanded equipment in semiconductor manufacturing, which needs to meet the needs of thin film deposition in different processes from 28nm to 5nm. ALD is aimed at atomic-level thin film deposition and is the core equipment of the advanced process below 5nm.

These fields were previously dominated by international leaders, and Xinkailai intends to break the inherent competitive landscape. In the international market, EPI equipment has long been monopolized by giants such as AMAT (Applied Materials) and TEL (Tokyo Electron); In the PVD segment, AMAT occupies 85% of the market share.

According to industry analysts, the high-precision thin film deposition equipment displayed by Xinkailai this time adopts a unique reaction cavity design, which can achieve nano-scale film uniformity control, and the technical parameters are close to the international leading level. The new generation of gluing and developing equipment has broken through the monopoly of foreign technology, reached the industry's advanced standards in terms of resolution and production capacity, and can meet the needs of 14nm and above processes.

Even more striking is the quantity detection equipment. Xinkailai previously announced that it has completed the development of 13 types of critical quantity detection products, and has started mass production and application in major semiconductor manufacturing enterprises in domestic logic, storage and compounds.

"A generation of technology, a generation of materials, a generation of equipment." In the speech of "Opportunities and Challenges of Semiconductor Process Equipment", Du Lijun, President of Xinkailai Process Equipment Product Line, explained the company's technical concept and product layout, and the evolution of semiconductor equipment must be synchronized with the progress of technology and materials.

When there is a DeepSeek moment in China's semiconductor equipment industry in pursuit of online "tap water", some industry insiders are also thinking coldly: a group of semiconductor equipment startups are emerging as new entrants, is it a real technical breakthrough or a reinvention of the wheel?

In the view of Chen Qi, a person in the semiconductor industry, China has now made good results in the field of mature process equipment, and what is lacking is the most high-end technology in the field of advanced processes.

"There is still a lack of high-quality suppliers in this area, and who of these startups can tackle the most difficult technology? Do these companies have the basic conditions to do so? Is there such an opportunity? If not, then where are the future for these startups? The mature process and the small size of the cake have long been divided, what products do you use to support the business? Chen Qiwen said.

He also mentioned that semiconductor equipment is well known to be in the field of special equipment, and the customer is the major wafer manufacturing enterprises, which is a pure to B business, "whether the equipment is good or not, whether it can be used, whether it meets the actual needs of customers, has long been in the customer's laboratory, the test line has been decided, the verification is passed, and if it is not passed, it is not passed, and it is really meaningless to hold a press conference on site." Chen Qi said.

The Warring States period of mergers and acquisitions

According to a recent report released by semiconductor industry organization SEMI, although China's investment in new computing chip manufacturing equipment in 2025 will drop sharply year-on-year, it will still be more than any other region. In 2025, China's investment in computing chip manufacturing equipment will reach $38 billion.

SEMI also predicts that in terms of manufacturing spending, global semiconductor equipment investment will grow by 2% this year as a whole to $110 billion due to increased investment in the tools needed to manufacture AI chips, achieving the sixth consecutive year of growth, and by 2026, AI is expected to drive another 18% growth in chip manufacturing investment.

Zhang Guobin said that the size of China's semiconductor equipment market in 2024 will be about 240 billion yuan, and according to the 2024 financial reports of listed semiconductor equipment manufacturers, many domestic semiconductor equipment companies have achieved substantial growth in revenue and profits.

NAURA is expected to achieve operating income of 27.6 billion yuan to 31.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25% to 43.93%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 5.17 billion yuan to 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6% to 52.6%.

AMEC, 688012.SH's total revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 9.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.73%, of which etching equipment sales will be 7.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.71%.

Zhang Guobin also said that the overall performance of domestic semiconductor equipment in the past year has the following trends:

First, product upgrading and domestic substitution are accelerating. With the development of the domestic semiconductor industry, the substitution process of domestic equipment has accelerated. At present, the comprehensive localization rate of all categories of semiconductor equipment has exceeded 40%, and will exceed 50% in 2025. In terms of degumming, cleaning and etching equipment, the localization rate is relatively high; In terms of CMP, heat treatment, and thin film deposition equipment, domestic substitution has progressed rapidly; In terms of measurement, gluing and development, lithography, ion implantation and other equipment, the degree of localization is relatively low, but it is also gradually breaking through.

Second, the competitiveness of the local equipment market has been improved. The competitiveness of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the global market is gradually increasing. NAURA is expected to increase its semiconductor business revenue by 39.4% in 2024, ranking from 8th to 6th, becoming the only Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer to enter the global top 10.

Third, the market demand continues to grow, and the prospects for domestic equipment are improving. With the rapid development of downstream fields such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and automotive electronics, the demand for semiconductor equipment continues to rise. The AI wave has brought new growth opportunities to the semiconductor equipment industry and promoted the accelerated recovery of the semiconductor equipment market, which is expected to reach $128 billion in global semiconductor equipment sales in 2025, and the Chinese market will continue to dominate.

Fourth, industrial integration and coordinated development. The trend of industrial integration in the semiconductor equipment industry will be more obvious, and the cooperation and collaboration between enterprises will be closer. Through mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and other means, domestic manufacturers can achieve resource integration and technology complementarity, and enhance industrial concentration and competitiveness.

For example, NAURA strategically holds Xinyuan Micro to further strengthen the layout of the entire semiconductor equipment industry chain. "These all show that China's semiconductor industry is entering the Warring States era of mergers and acquisitions in 2025, which is beneficial to the development of leading enterprises." Zhang Guobin pointed out.