"I guess the whole world is confused, let's see what measures each country has." "We are also still discussing, and the stock price is also volatile today." In the face of the "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded expectations, a number of people in the photovoltaic and other new energy industry told the first financial reporter today.

"Reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded expectations

On the news side, on Wednesday (April 2), Eastern time, U.S. President Trump announced the long-watched "Reciprocal Tariffs" (Reciprocal Tariffs) plan, announcing that the United States will set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" for all trading partners, effective on April 5; and the imposition of "discounted reciprocal tariffs" ("reciprocal tariffs"), not only on value-added tax but also on non-tariff barriers to trade, on several trading partners with larger deficits, came into effect on April 9.

Among them, the United States has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on China, 32% reciprocal tariffs on Indonesia, 36% reciprocal tariffs on Thailand, 46% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam, and 49% reciprocal tariffs on Cambodia.

LONGi Green Energy (601012. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of the board of directors, has publicly stated that due to various trade policy restrictions, the photovoltaic production capacity that can be exported directly from China to the United States in the past few years is almost zero, and there is almost no direct export of Chinese photovoltaic products to the United States. This means that the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the United States on China will have little impact on the PV industry.

However, it is worth noting that due to the restrictions on the export of Chinese products to the United States, Chinese enterprises have basically formed a complete overseas photovoltaic industry chain after the construction of production capacity in Southeast Asia in recent years, and the leading enterprises have integrated production capacity from silicon wafers to modules. Since the supply of photovoltaic cell modules in the United States mainly comes from Southeast Asia, the "reciprocal tariffs" on many Southeast Asian countries are expected to have a certain impact on the US market.

Wang Fangying, an unnamed domestic first-tier module company, told CBN: "(Reciprocal tariffs) will definitely raise the cost of overseas production capacity to supply the United States." At the same time, due to the shortage of high-efficiency PV cell production capacity in the United States, tariffs are likely to further push up module prices in the United States. ”

Li Li, an industry insider of another A-share photovoltaic listed company with overseas production capacity, further told the first financial reporter that for enterprises with diversified businesses, the performance is still supported, but it still depends on whether the follow-up (cost) can be transmitted to customers, and the actual impact still needs to be communicated with customers.

"Overseas demand is weak in the near term, US module prices have been falling, and increasing trade barriers are pushing up costs, which is a big challenge for companies." Zhang Nan, another domestic first-tier module company, told the first financial reporter.

The long-term impact is yet to be clarified

Although from the current point of view, the unexpected high tariffs may have a certain negative impact on PV, the sustainability of policies and the countermeasures of trading partners are also key factors in assessing the actual impact.

According to the analysis of CICC Securities, the long-term trade and economic impact has yet to be clarified, after all, there are still many variables in the impact path, such as whether and how trading partners will counteract, whether there is a possibility of reduced negotiations, etc. In addition, it is necessary to consider the back-and-forth and uncertainty of Trump's policies themselves.

"We don't think the unusually high tariff rates are going to stay in place for long." SPDB International said in its latest research report that considering the damage of high tariffs to the U.S. economy itself, Trump is likely to suspend or reduce the "reciprocal tariffs" of some countries after bilateral consultations with important trading partners, especially the more personalized "reciprocal tariff" rates. However, the 10% "minimum base tariff" may be retained for most countries.

From 2023 onwards, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar (688223. SH), Trina Solar (688599. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ) and several other Chinese photovoltaic companies have launched plans to build factories in the United States.

"The U.S. market is attractive, but it has complex geopolitical implications." The relevant person in charge of LONGi Green Energy told the first financial reporter today that in terms of module prices, in the past two years, the price of modules in the United States has been almost three times that of other places. In the U.S., the company has built a 5GW PV module factory in Ohio through a joint venture with U.S. energy giant Invenergy, which mainly produces PERC modules.

According to the reporter's understanding, LONGi Green Energy's 5GW module joint venture plant in Ohio, USA, has been put into operation in the first quarter of 2024 to produce PERC modules, which is currently at full capacity. JinkoSolar's 2GW Topcon module production capacity in the U.S. will be built and put into operation in 2024 and is currently close to full capacity. Trina Solar's 5GW module plant in Wilmer, Texas (acquired by US solar manufacturing company FREYR Battery) was commissioned on 1 November 2024 and is currently ramp-up and is expected to reach full capacity in the second half of 2025, with 30% expected to be supported by long-term offtake contracts with US customers.

(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Nan, Li Li, and Wang Fangying are pseudonyms in the article).