China UAV (688297): 24 years of performance under pressure 25 years is expected to recover significantly
DATE:  Apr 01 2025

In 2024, the company will achieve revenue of 685 million yuan (-74.28% year-on-year), mainly due to the impact of changes in market demand, the adjustment of the rhythm of the domestic market and the postponement of the procurement plan of key customers, etc., the number of products delivered decreased compared with the previous year, resulting in a significant decrease in operating income compared with the same period last year; the net profit attributable to the parent company was -53.9161 million yuan (-117.82% year-on-year); net profit after deducting non-attributable to the parent company was -62.5393 million yuan (-121.88% year-on-year).

In 24 years, the performance was under pressure due to the adjustment of the rhythm of domestic and foreign demand, and it is expected to recover significantly in 25 years. In 2024, the company will achieve revenue of 685 million yuan (-74.28% year-on-year), mainly due to the impact of changes in market demand, the adjustment of the rhythm of the domestic market and the postponement of the procurement plan of key customers, etc., the number of products delivered decreased compared with the previous year, resulting in a significant decrease in operating income compared with the same period last year; the net profit attributable to the parent company was -53.9161 million yuan (-117.82% year-on-year); The net profit after deducting non-attributable to the parent company was -62.5393 million yuan (-121.88% year-on-year), mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in revenue scale in 2024, in order to maintain the industry position and meet the follow-up development needs, adhere to technological innovation, continue to increase R&D investment, and various operating expenses occurred normally, which comprehensively led to a significant decrease in net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of military trade and domestic sales, the company has sold 578 million yuan to AVIC in 24 years, accounting for 84.29%, and the delivery direction of military trade still occupies a major position in 25 years. According to the company's 2025 related party transaction estimates, it is expected that the amount of related party sales will reach 1.4 billion yuan in 25 years, accounting for 45% of similar businesses, and the military trade business is expected to show a significant growth, and domestic trade is expected to achieve high growth in 25 years.

Inventories hit a record high, and the company actively stocked up for production. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in 2024 increased by 13.10 percentage points year-on-year to 32.05%, mainly due to the adjustment of product delivery structure and the results of cost reduction and efficiency improvement. On the expense side, sales expenses were 24 million (+20.17%), and administrative expenses were 1. 0.9 billion (+16.38%), financial expenses -60 million (-93 million in the same period last year), R&D expenses 2. 0.9 billion (+20.88%). Net profit margin decreased to -7.87% due to revenue reduction and normal expenses on the expense side. In terms of balance sheet: the company's inventory reached 2.62 billion at the end of 24, an increase of 164.91% from the beginning of the year; prepaid accounts were RMB189 million, an increase of 1160.0% over the beginning of the year; The contract liabilities were 416 million, an increase of 413.58% from the beginning of the year.

The new model led the air show, and the UAV collaboration system is becoming more and more complete. On November 12, 2024, the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition opened at the Zhuhai International Airshow Center, and the company's self-developed "Pterodactyl" and "Yunying" series of multi-model advanced UAVs were collectively exhibited, among which more than 10 types of UAVs such as Pterodactyl-6 and Yunying-350 made their public debut, and the comprehensive anti-submarine configuration of the Pterodactyl-X UAV was displayed for the first time. At the scene of this air show, "Pterodactyl" and "Yunying" gathered together to display large and medium-sized UAV systems including Pterodactyl-6 and Pterodactyl-X, as well as small and medium-sized UAV systems of the Yunying series, from 10 kg to 6 tons, with a full-scene series of lineages of "high, medium and low" collocation and "large, medium and small" integration. From the perspective of combat effectiveness, in the actual combat environment, the "Pterodactyl" and "Cloud Shadow" UAVs have realized the mixed grouping and flexible matching between different models, and have a "large, medium, small" and "high, medium and low" combat system, realizing the package supply of different intensities and different types of confrontation. Through the systematic combat mode, the synergistic effect of "1 + 1 is greater than 2" is achieved, thereby improving the overall combat efficiency.

Civilian: "Pterodactyl" UAV helps the high-quality development of the civil UAV industry. 1) "Great Meteorology, Great Emergency": Driven by the needs of national ministries and commissions, combined with the characteristics of high reliability and high performance of "Pterodactyl", the company has actively explored the civilian scene of Pterodactyl around "Great Meteorology and Great Emergency", and has achieved remarkable results. By the end of 24, "Pterodactyl" will be deployed in nearly 10 provinces on a regular basis, forming a 3-hour emergency response circle in major areas of the country, effectively responding to various types of emergency emergencies, and further enhancing the country's comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. 2) Low-altitude economy: Since February 2021, when the low-altitude economy was written into the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline", the company has carried out research and application practice from the airport airspace and the civil UAV industry chain, two key aspects of low-altitude economic development.

Profit forecast: It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025/2026/2027 will be 2.90/3.78/441 million yuan, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 91/70/60 times respectively.

Risk warning: product orders are lower than expected, and product delivery progress is lower than expected.

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