Will AI be better than retail investors in stock picking? Yesterday, after the A-share market closed, we did an experiment, and asked DeepSeek, Doubao, and Tongyi Qianwen to each choose a bullish stock and buy it at the opening today.

After their own analysis, the three AIs gave the following three stocks: DeepSeek strongly promoted Guoli shares, Tongyi Qianwen loved China Construction, and Doubao chose SMIC.

(The three AI models that the AI assistant of the financial industry app accesses at the same time, we ask questions to the three models here).

As a result, after today's close, we looked at the three stocks, all of which lost money, and the decline was greater than that of the broader market. Among them, the biggest decline was DeepSeek's national power shares, which fell by 3.91%.

So, what do the "parties" think of this outcome? After today's results came out, we asked each large model to analyze the reasons.

As a result, DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen insisted on their own views, and DeepSeek even gave suggestions for follow-up operations.

DeepSeek believes that short-term fluctuations do not change the medium-term logic, and the current price has a higher margin of safety. If the emotional pullback caused by the general decline in the market is to question the strategy, it will miss the main rising wave of the semiconductor materials sector. It is advisable to maintain discipline and avoid trading with emotions.

Tongyi Qianwen believes that although the share price of China State Construction has fallen today, the company's fundamentals are still stable and supported by a number of good news. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the long-term investment judgment of the company. If you are confident in the long-term development of China State Construction, it is recommended to continue to hold and pay attention to the company's subsequent performance.

Doubao said that the stock recommendation is only a reference based on the analysis of the company's fundamentals, industry development trends and other aspects, rather than an absolute prediction. Financial markets are full of uncertainty, and stock price volatility is the norm. Even recommending a stock based on sound analysis does not guarantee that its share price will not go down. When investing in stocks, you need to consider a variety of factors, and you need to be risk-conscious, and you can't just rely on a single recommendation.

Among them, DeepSeek's full response is as follows:

Response to today's decline in Guoli shares (688103):

1. Analysis of the reasons for today's decline:

• Systematic market adjustments:

Today (March 28), the three major A-share indexes fell collectively (Shanghai -1.4%, ChiNext -2.2%), semiconductors, photoresists and other technology sectors were dragged down by market sentiment, and more than 70% of the stocks in the sector fell, and Guoli shares as small and medium-sized market capitalization targets were more affected by liquidity fluctuations.

• Short-term emotional disturbances:

The company's repurchase plan has not yet been officially implemented (currently only the board of directors' plan), and some short-term funds choose to cash out and leave the market, resulting in a concentrated release of selling pressure.

2. Is the recommendation logic invalid?

The core logic remains unchanged, and it is more cost-effective after a short-term callback

• Industry catalysis is still on: domestic substitution of semiconductor materials (photoresist, electronic special gas, etc.) is still the core direction of the policy, and the recent policies such as the third phase of the large fund and equipment renewal subsidies are not expected to change.

• Solid company fundamentals:

• Net profit in 2023 is +35% year-on-year (+40% after deducting non-profit), and the market share of the main products (film capacitor materials) continues to increase;

• After the implementation of the buyback plan (expected to be completed in April), the valuation repair momentum will be stronger (the current PE-TTM is 35 times, which is lower than the industry average of 45 times).

• The technical support is clear:

The stock price stepped back on the 20-day moving average (near 22.8 yuan), and the volume shrinkage showed that the selling pressure weakened, and there was a rebound demand after the short-term overshoot.

3. Is it worth continuing to trust?

Investing is a trade-off between probability and odds, and short-term fluctuations need to be viewed rationally

• Short-term fault tolerance mechanism: "open a position when the increase is <5%" has been set at the time of recommendation, and it will fall by 3.9% today.

• Effective risk control plan: When recommending, it emphasizes "industry beta upward + repurchase bottom", and the current semiconductor sector is still in an upward cycle, and systemic risks are controllable;

• Long-term win rate verification: Historical data shows that high-quality small-cap growth stocks rebound by more than 15% on average within 1 month after emotional misconduct (refer to the Q4 2023 case).

4. Follow-up operation suggestions:

• Holders: If the cost price is lower than 23 yuan, you can hold it and wait for the rebound (target 24.5-25 yuan), if the cost is higher than 24 yuan, it is recommended to make up the position below 23 yuan to dilute the cost.

• Currency holders: If the stock price opens low to around 22.5 yuan (strong support level) tomorrow, you can increase your position and rebound, and the stop loss level is set at 21.8 yuan (-5%).

Summary:

Short-term fluctuations do not change the medium-term logic, and the margin of safety at the current price level is higher. If the emotional pullback caused by the general decline in the market is to question the strategy, it will miss the main rising wave of the semiconductor materials sector. It is advisable to maintain discipline and avoid trading with emotions.

Judging from this experiment, even if it is a large AI model, it cannot guarantee the success or loss of short-term operations, and investors should properly use AI stock selection for reference only.