Guosen Securities released a research report saying that the energy electronics industry has entered a stable stage, in addition to the demand side of photovoltaic has not significantly improved, consumption and industrial control remain stable, the demand for data centers has accelerated, the total number of new energy vehicles has maintained growth, and the continuous improvement of the automotive power segment has brought about the growth of power device consumption. On the supply side, the head company has entered the stage of on-demand expansion on the basis of 24 years of capacity utilization, and the competition pattern of highly competitive high-voltage applications such as automotive IGBT modules has gradually stabilized; In the context of moderate demand recovery, companies are expected to continue the 24-year trend of steady growth, and the short-term growth difference still depends on product structure, customer layout and cost reduction ability.

The main views of Guosen Securities are as follows:

New energy vehicles: The proportion of the main drive with a power of more than 200kW in China's new energy vehicles increased from 9% in 22 years to 28% in January 25, and the maximum peak power of electric drives increased from 255kW in 22 years to 450kW in January 25.

Vehicle situation: According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's monthly sales of new energy vehicles in February were 890,000 (YoY +87.1%, MoM -5.5%), the output was 888,000 (YoY + 91.6%, MoM -12.5%), and the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 41.9%.

The situation of the main drive power module: the leading advantages of the main manufacturers of the main drive IGBT module, Xinlian Integration, Times Electric, Silan Micro and Star Semiconductor, have gradually been established, the share of overseas manufacturers has gradually declined, and the future industry pattern will gradually converge, and the competition mainly comes from the share switching of the head manufacturers.

Silicon carbide penetration: In January 25, SiC MOSFET accounted for 18.9% of the main drive module of new energy passenger vehicles in China, the penetration rate of 800V models was about 15%, and the penetration rate of silicon carbide in 800V models was 71%.

Charging piles: In February 2025, the increase in charging piles in China will be 634,000 units (YoY +45.7%), of which the increase in public charging piles will be 70,900 units (YoY +61.2%, QoQ-61.1%), and the increase in private charging piles with vehicles will be 166,100 units (YoY +39.9%, QoQ-22.5%).

PV inverters: 20kW, 50kW, and 110kW PV inverter prices will remain stable in February 2025; From January to February 2025, the new installed capacity of PV will be 3.947GW, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%. The production on the supply side is stable and sufficient, the procurement demand is gradually recovering, and the shipments of high-power string and centralized models are more.

Delivery date and price tracking: Inventory has returned to a healthy level, the delivery time and price of products of overseas manufacturers have gradually stabilized, and the industry has gradually moved towards a period of stable improvement.

Subject matter

It is recommended to pay attention to related companies Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ), New Clean Energy (605111.SH), Times Electric (688187.SH), China Resources Micro (688396.SH), Silan Micro (600460.SH), Dongwei Semiconductors (688261.SH), Star Semiconductors (603290.SH), Macro Micro Technology (688711.SH), Jiejie Microelectronics (300623.SZ), Xinlian Integration-U (688469. SH)。 In addition, the downstream penetration of silicon carbide has accelerated, and the substrate has entered the conversion stage from 6 inches to 8 inches, and the head substrate enterprises are expected to benefit, and it is recommended to pay attention to Tianyue Advanced (688234.SH), Jingsheng (688478.SH) and other companies in the upstream of the industry.

Risk Warning

Industry cyclical fluctuation risk: The semiconductor industry penetrates all areas of the national economy, and the overall volatility of the industry has a certain correlation with the macroeconomic situation. Industrial control and power supply, new energy, inverter white goods and other industries, if the macroeconomic fluctuations are large or in the trough for a long time, the overall profitability of the above industries will be affected to varying degrees.

New energy market volatility risk: As an emerging market, the new energy market may have the risk of greater market volatility. If the industrial policy changes, supply chain equipment support, related facilities construction and promotion speed, customer recognition and other factors are affected, resulting in large fluctuations in the demand of the new energy market.

Global supply chain uncertainty. Overseas procurement and sales operations are usually priced and settled in foreign currencies such as euros, Swiss francs, and US dollars, and fluctuations in foreign exchange market exchange rates will affect the value of the company's monetary funds, thereby affecting the value of the company's assets. At the same time, the global semiconductor supply chain is affected by trade restrictions and other aspects, which will bring about an increase in supply chain costs.