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We have been deeply engaged in e-commerce SaaS for 15 years and have built a full-scenario service ecosystem. Based on the e-commerce platform, the company provides SaaS products for e-commerce merchants, and on this basis, it provides value-added products and services such as supporting hardware and operation services, and lays out Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, WeChat and other platforms to build a full-scene service ecology covering small, medium and large merchants. The company has a good reputation and brand effect, and the management is younger, providing merchants with full-link solutions for e-commerce operations.
Cash flow is the first to return to positive, and the product cycle is expected to drive the performance inflection point. From 2018 to 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.65/4.65/5.1/5.45/4.95/4.75/482 million yuan, a year-on-year change of +29.89%/-0.18%/+9.75%/+6.94%/-9.42%/-3.74%/+1.46%. In 2024, the company will gradually reduce its investment in non-core low-margin businesses, and continue to increase its investment in R&D and market development around the strategic layout of large merchants, resulting in a slight increase in revenue. With the completion of the company's product system, the business of large merchants has run through, and the cost control has achieved remarkable results, the company's cash flow will return to positive in 2023, and the financial situation will be significantly improved, and the company's financial situation will further improve in 2024, and the cash flow in the first three quarters has reached 27.05 million yuan, and the whole year is expected to reach a new level. The company's net profit deducted from the non-attributable parent company has gradually recovered since bottoming out in 2022, and the loss will gradually shrink in 2023, and the net loss of non-attributable to the parent company will be 72.9465 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of more than 10 million yuan from the loss in the same period last year. With the company's revenue growth momentum strengthening, the expense side is well controlled, and the cash flow has begun to return to positive, we believe that the company is expected to usher in a performance inflection point in 2025. The
e-commerce SaaS market continues to expand, and platforms and service providers work together. From 2018 to 2024, the size of China's SaaS market will increase from 14.52 billion yuan to 70.28 billion yuan (CAGR 30.2%), and may exceed 100 billion yuan in 2026. The e-commerce SaaS industry has formed a pyramid competition pattern: the demand base of the low-level start-up merchants is price-sensitive, the middle-level development merchants prefer vertical tools, and the top-level mature brand merchants have strong specialization and high willingness to pay. At present, e-commerce platforms and SaaS service providers are symbiotic, small and medium-sized merchant businesses are deeply bound to platform traffic, merchant service markets such as Taobao, Douyin, and Pinduoduo have become a stable ecosystem, and third-party SaaS companies rely on specialized products and platforms to develop synergistically and benefit from ecological dividends for a long time.
The hierarchical strategy deepens customer coverage, and AI empowers the whole chain upgrade. Through a hierarchical operation strategy, the company has built a core business model with small and medium-sized merchants as cash cows and large customers as the growth engine, covering more than 1.2 million paying users and handling more than 30 million parcels per day. The revenue of SaaS products for small and medium-sized merchants on the Douyin platform increased by 78.41% against the trend, and the proportion of multi-platform revenue increased to 49.14%. In
the first half of 2024, the revenue of large merchant business increased by 15.57% year-on-year, and the offline push network covered 30 cities, and customer stickiness was enhanced. At the same time, the company empowers the whole chain efficiency improvement through AI technology, Kuaimai Xiaozhi customer service robot increases GMV by 20%, and acquires Yitao to enter a new track of the supply chain to further enhance the performance growth boundary.
Investment suggestion: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 482 million/566 million/682 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%/17.3%/20.4%; It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2026 will be -83 million/08 million/39 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of -349.4%/109.3%/412.8%. We believe that the company has a significant market competitive advantage in the field of e-commerce SaaS, and in the future, with the recovery of business revenue growth of small and medium-sized merchants, the continuous acceleration of large merchant business, and good control of expenses, the company's profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, and with the further improvement of customer penetration rate and the expansion of new businesses such as supply chain in the future, the company is expected to further consolidate its leading position. The company has a significant market competitive advantage in the field of e-commerce SaaS, and is expected to further consolidate its leading position in the future with the continuous consolidation of cooperation with large customers, the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of small and medium-sized customers, the strategic deployment of new businesses such as supply chain, and the empowerment of AI in the e-commerce industry. Compared with comparable companies in the field of cloud services, the company focuses on the vertical e-commerce industry, and the scale effect is expected to appear, giving Guangyun Technology 16xPS in 2025, corresponding to a target market value of 9.057 billion, and a target price of 21.27 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk factors: the risk of macroeconomic pressure, the risk of intensified competition in the industry, the risk of dependence on e-commerce platforms, the risk of customer expansion falling short of expectations, the risk of technological innovation and iteration falling short of expectations, and the risk of profit conversion falling short of expectations.
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