Introduction

1. It takes about one month to forty-five days for a photovoltaic power station to be accepted from the beginning of the record to the acceptance of grid connection. The rush to install PV not only exists in the construction process, but also affects the upstream filing link.

The two time nodes of "430" and "531" are derived from the two photovoltaic policies released at the beginning of this year.

3. For the enterprises in the middle of it, the rush to install can undoubtedly clear the inventory in a short period of time and boost performance, but it is also necessary to consider the possible contraction in demand after June 1.

4. Some leading development companies have lowered the development channel fees and installation fees of photovoltaic power plants on a large scale to prepare for the price reduction after "430" and "531".

After a year-long period of pressure on goods, PV module dealers suddenly couldn't buy them.

A long-term distributor of a tier-1 module company told The Economic Observer that after ordering modules from the factory, he learned the next day that the factory had shipped his goods to someone else. The dealer was worried about the loss of customers, so he had to go to the factory operation to negotiate and communicate, and the result was: the factory transferred someone else's goods to him. After that, the dealer asked the factory to place an order, and it took two price increases to get the goods.

Throughout 2024, news of high inventories, price cuts, and layoffs plagued the PV industry. However, in March 2025, there has been a small peak in sales in the photovoltaic industry.

A PV installer in a southern province told the Economic Observer that the number of PV power plant projects started in a southern city this year was three to five times that of the same period last year. The price of PV modules, which has been falling endlessly, has also begun to enter an upward channel, and the current mainstream module price has approached 0.8 yuan/W, compared with about 0.7 yuan/W in January this year.

The goal of these projects is to complete construction by April 30 or May 31.

"430" and "531" are the dates set out in the two policy documents issued in mid-January and mid-February this year, respectively. The industry generally believes that the revenue of photovoltaic power plants completed after April 30 or May 31 will decline. Therefore, in order to "maintain returns", it is necessary to "rush to install".

But the actions of the participants also show their judgment of the craze: it won't last long, and be prepared for a possible decline at any time. Some Tier-1 module makers have prudently maintained their current capacity to cope with the small peak in the first half of the year by increasing the utilization rate of existing capacity.

Photovoltaic power plant developers are also preparing to deal with the possible decline in revenue of power plants by reducing channel fees and installation fees. Some PV power plant companies are re-evaluating the revenue model of PV power plants and exploring new operating models.

Rush for filing, raw materials, and construction

"As long as we take over your project, even if we give you three construction teams and 24-hour construction, we will finish it for you." A salesperson for a PV installer promised consulters at a PV show in late March, "Of course, the law doesn't allow 24-hour construction." He added.

The company, whose main business is photovoltaic installation, has also launched the acquisition of photovoltaic power plant projects, which are "not confirmed by the investor, but are eager to complete the grid connection before '430' and '531'." ”

He said that now the company has acquired a total of about 300MW of projects and is ready to grab "430" and "531". Usually the size of a project does not exceed 6MW.

The construction of photovoltaic power plants is usually divided into three stages: filing, construction, and grid connection. Filing refers to the delivery of project documents to the relevant management departments and the approval of the project; After getting the approval, the construction team will carry out the construction; After the construction is completed, go to the power grid company or relevant management departments to complete the grid connection acceptance.

It takes about one month to 45 days for a photovoltaic power station to be connected to the grid from the beginning of the filing to the acceptance of grid connection.

From the end of March, there are still more than two months to the time node of "531". The sales staff of the PV installer said: "Our company has a large number of construction teams, and it is completely possible to complete the installation before the time node. ”

The rush to install PV not only exists in the construction process, but also affects the upstream filing link.

A photovoltaic developer in a northern province told reporters that it is not easy for the project to get a record now, because the processing speed of the government department is limited, and after a project is applied for the record, the local power supply department has to send a special person to the site to conduct a survey. But now the number of projects reported by a coastal city in the north has increased a lot, and the government can't handle it, and the project has to wait a long time for the record.

Getting the filing is only the first step. The photovoltaic developers of the above-mentioned southern provinces told reporters that detailed construction drawings are required for the filing of photovoltaic power plants, and the construction must be carried out in strict accordance with the drawings during the construction process. However, now that various materials such as modules, inverters, and brackets have risen in price or even run out of stock, some power stations have been forced to adjust their plans.

The above-mentioned first-tier module dealer told reporters that the current situation is that the second-tier PV module companies are almost out of stock, and they have begun to get goods from the third-tier enterprises, "If it weren't for this rush to install, some PV module brands would never have heard of it, and the project party would buy it back first regardless of the quality, so even second-hand modules were bought." ”

The reporter consulted several second-tier companies in the name of the customer, and the sales staff said that "all payments need to be paid in advance" and "only the goods can be picked up in batches". At the exhibition, a PV seller said that if the order is placed for the factory now, the full payment will need to wait for more than ten days.

In 2024, when the PV inventory is backlogged, the purchase of PV can basically get the spot, and the purchaser can also settle the payment according to a certain account period.

The person in charge of a photovoltaic bracket factory told reporters that the aluminum alloy inventory in the factory has been pulled to the construction site of the small photovoltaic power station project, and the C-shaped steel of the large project is basically out of stock.

A number of leading PV companies also mentioned the current rush to install and its impact on production in response to investors' questions.

JinkoSolar (688223.SH) said that module prices in the domestic market rose slightly as the industry's supply-side reform progressed steadily, demand picked up after the Spring Festival, and the expectation of rush to install in the first half of the year due to the market-oriented reform of the power market. The company believes that in the short term, the new and old separation policy may stimulate some photovoltaic projects to rush to install in advance. Due to the potential rush to install demand caused by the market recovery and the reform of the electricity market, the company's production schedule in March increased significantly compared with February.

Trina Solar (688599.SH) said that China's market-oriented electricity price reform policy has clarified the "separation of old and new" electricity prices between existing and incremental projects, which has promoted the increase in demand for rush installation in the first half of the year.

"430" and "531".

The two time nodes of "430" and "531" come from the two photovoltaic policies released at the beginning of this year.

On January 17 this year, the National Energy Administration issued the Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures").

The "Measures" stipulate that photovoltaic power station projects will be "divided between the old and the new" by April 30: photovoltaic power stations that are connected to the grid on or before April 30 and are less than 20MW can still be fully connected to the grid; Projects that are connected to the grid on or after May 1 will be classified according to the scale of the project, and household projects below 6MW can be fully connected to the grid, and all industrial and commercial projects will be self-generated and self-consumed, and surplus electricity will be connected to the grid; In principle, projects of more than 6MW, 20MW or less than 50MW are all self-generated and self-used, and some areas can be converted into centralized photovoltaic power stations. The Measures further stipulate that "old" projects may not be subject to filing changes, and will still be managed according to the original filing type. Therefore, if the photovoltaic power station has obtained the record certificate for generating electricity and is connected to the grid before April 30, it can continue to be connected to the grid in full or partially.

On January 27, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The "Notice" clarifies that photovoltaic power generation should be fully included in market-oriented transactions, and the electricity price is all formed by market transactions. At the same time, we will continue to demarcate the old and new photovoltaic power stations, with June 1 this year as the boundary: before that, the original policy will be implemented for new energy projects that are connected to the grid; The new policy will be implemented for projects that are invested and connected to the grid on or after June 1.

Specifically, local energy bureaus and power grid companies will set up mechanisms for electricity tariffs. Under the premise that all electricity is marketized in principle, June 1, 2025 is the boundary: for projects that are completed and connected to the grid before June 1, the guaranteed purchase of the mechanism electricity will still be implemented, and the mechanism electricity price will still implement the original policy, but shall not be higher than the benchmark price of coal-fired power; For projects invested and constructed on or after June 1, the guaranteed purchase of electricity shall be determined by the actual consumption, and the mechanism electricity price shall be formed by bidding between projects.

This means that when the market price is higher than the price range of the mechanism electricity price, the enterprise has to "return the money"; When the market price is lower than the price range of the mechanism electricity price, the enterprise will receive a subsidy.

Combining the two policies, the industry has concluded that "projects completed and connected to the grid before April 30 still enjoy fixed electricity prices; Some projects that are completed and connected to the grid after April 30 cannot enjoy fixed electricity prices; For projects connected to the grid after May 31, all projects will not be able to enjoy fixed electricity prices".

The two documents change the logic of "selling electricity" from photovoltaic power plants to the grid from the two dimensions of volume and price, and may also change the revenue model of photovoltaic power plants.

Wang Beibei, director of the Economic Evaluation Center of Northwest Survey, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., introduced at the seminar on the development review of the photovoltaic industry in 2024 and the outlook for the situation in 2025: after the new deal, the revenue model of photovoltaic power plants will shift from "power generation × fixed electricity price" to "on-site market-based transaction electricity price + off-site price difference".

Assuming that the average market-based transaction price is 0.25 yuan/kWh and the mechanism electricity price is 0.3 yuan/kWh, a photovoltaic power station generates 100 kWh of electricity and sells it at a price of 0.2 yuan/kWh in the electricity market, and the final income is: 0.2 yuan/kWh×100kWh (on-site market-based transaction price) + (0.3-0.25) yuan/kWh×100kWh (off-site price difference) = 25 yuan.

The adjusted price of electricity will be formed by the market, and like stocks, it will go up and down. PV projects can make more money if the price of electricity rises, but the industry generally believes that the price of electricity will fall.

Lu Jiabin, a power market consultant of the photovoltaic power generation special committee of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the electricity price in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mengdong in the three regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mengdong, which are continuously running the electricity spot market, has seen a sharp drop in electricity prices during the time period when photovoltaic power generation has increased significantly at noon, and the electricity price has risen sharply during the evening photovoltaic power generation period, with a price difference of up to 0.5 yuan/kWh. The price of electricity during the midday hours is even less than 0.1 yuan/kWh.

The average selling price of photovoltaic electricity in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mengxi was 0.1 yuan/kWh, 0.168 yuan/kWh and 0.181 yuan/kWh. Previously, the guaranteed purchase price of photovoltaic power generation referred to the benchmark electricity price of coal power, which was roughly around 0.3 yuan/kWh - 0.4 yuan/kWh.

Based on the average PV electricity price and average PV utilization hours in the three places, this means that for every 1MW PV power station invested, it earns about 200 yuan less per hour, and about 300,000 yuan less a year.

PV manufacturers prepare for "post-531".

For companies in the midst of this, the rush to install can undoubtedly clear inventory and boost performance in a short period of time, but it is also necessary to consider the possible contraction in demand after June 1.

Recently, the Economic Observer visited a number of first-tier photovoltaic enterprises to cope with the rush to install, and the strategies of first-line photovoltaic module companies can be roughly divided into two types: "accompanying the market" and "long-term single lock".

Enterprises that choose to "go to the market" believe that the price of modules in the market is rising rapidly, one price a day, and the price can be adjusted flexibly, and the product is more profitable. These companies believe that module demand will inevitably shrink after June 1, so they can't just see a surge in demand in the first half of the year and significantly increase production or restart shut down production lines, but only need to "fill up" the current capacity utilization rate to cope with the rush to install.

In this way, on the one hand, we can maintain the current tight balance between supply and demand in the market and maintain the price repair trend; On the other hand, it will not cause a large burden on enterprises.

Enterprises that choose "long-term order lock-in" (signing long-term orders at a fixed price, the price does not fluctuate with market fluctuations, and usually the order volume is large) believes that no matter how the price changes, there will be a demand for photovoltaic installation in the market, and they only need to estimate an acceptable price according to their own production costs, and use this price as a benchmark to obtain more purchases at the locked price. The strategic focus of these companies is to maintain market share and capacity utilization.

For second-tier companies, this is an excellent time to replenish their cash flow. Previously, due to the serious surplus of photovoltaic modules, the selling price of first-tier enterprises has fallen below the cost line, and there is almost no market for modules of second-tier enterprises. Now, due to the blowout of market demand, first-tier enterprises are not expanding production on a large scale, and second- and third-tier enterprises are finding sales for their modules again.

Some second-tier companies have maintained a more aggressive attitude, seeing this round of rush as an opportunity to enhance the competitiveness of their products.

A senior executive of a second-tier module company told the Economic Observer: "Our company's production costs are high, and the market price at the end of last year can barely cover the cost, and we will lose money when receiving orders." According to this year's price, the company has a profit from receiving orders. After having an order, the company can invest in equipment to reduce production costs. ”

after the price adjustment

In the center of the rush to install is the photovoltaic power station development enterprise.

The business model of most photovoltaic power plant developers is as follows: the head developer invests and operates the power station as an investor, the landowner receives the rent, and the intermediate installer and construction team receive the construction fee.

After the adjustment of electricity prices, the income of photovoltaic power plants may be reduced. In this case, if the development costs of the landholders, installers, construction teams, etc. remain the same as before, the investment returns of the investors will be greatly reduced.

The reporter learned at a photovoltaic developer's channel investment conference that there have been leading development companies to reduce the development channel fees and installation fees of photovoltaic power plants on a large scale to prepare for the price reduction after "430" and "531".

Photovoltaic power plant developers are also discussing the transformation of investment and development models. In the past, the development and investment decision-making logic of photovoltaic power plants was "open source and cost reduction", based on "power generation ×fixed electricity price", plus the cash flow generated by power auxiliary services, green certificates/carbon trading and other businesses as income, and then subtracting development costs, that is, profits. Among them, the income is relatively fixed, and cost control is very critical.

After the electricity marketization, the income of photovoltaic power plants will be more diversified and unpredictable, and even some developers and owners cannot clearly judge the impact of electricity market-based transactions. As a result, some developers are also planning new development models.

"We are developing a virtual power plant service, so that in the future we can only buy electricity from photovoltaic power plants and sell it on the market. This model does not necessarily require the development of photovoltaic power plants, but shifts the focus of development to the side of small and medium-sized power consumers. A photovoltaic developer told reporters.

Large enterprises should take precautions and make careful plans for the "531" period, while installers have already thought about the plan after "531" - a holiday. More than one installer told reporters that after this busy period, the whole company will be given a holiday, and there are also installers who are organizing group trips.

"Although I will leave the industry for a while in the future because of the decline in earnings, I will come back when developers figure out how to make money under market-based trading conditions." A PV installer told the Economic Observer.

Massive information and accurate interpretation are all in the Sina Finance APP