Xu Xiaohua posted an article on Moments, calling on PV competitors to use less "government policy leverage" to bring troubles and risks to decision-makers, and should hand over the choice to the market and customers.

01 Angrily criticize BC's "Three Deadly Sins"

On March 7, Xu Xiaohua, chairman and CEO of Huasheng New Energy, a leader in HJT (heterojunction batteries), suddenly made a circle of friends with "hard steel" BC (back contact battery):

In this long essay with 6 exclamation marks, Xu Xiaohua mentions BC's "Three Deadly Sins":

First, BC technology only talks about positive efficiency, not comprehensive efficiency. Second, the BC process is complex and the manufacturing cost is high, which is to "pass on the manufacturing cost" to the customer in the name of advanced technology. Third, BC is in the name of advanced production capacity, driving a new round of investment and competition involution.

Finally, Xu Xiaohua called on PV competitors to use less "government policy leverage" to bring annoyance and risk to government decision-makers, and should leave the choice to the market and customers.

Including the author, who has been immersed in the photovoltaic circle all year round, the photovoltaic industry knows at a glance who Xu Xiaohua's "bombardment" is.

In early January this year, the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in Shaanxi Province in 2025", clearly proposing the implementation of the 2GW "Photovoltaic Leader Plan".

For projects applying for the plan, if the module conversion efficiency reaches more than 24.2%, the project will be prioritized for inclusion in the provincial 10 million kilowatt wind power and photovoltaic construction scale in 2025 through enterprise commitment, city and county declaration, competitive allocation and other procedures.

The PV industry found that this figure is exactly the same as that of LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), which is about to mass-produce Hi-MO 9\Hi-MO X10 series BC modules with exactly the same frontal efficiency. At present, TOPCon's mainstream products are more concentrated at the 23.5% level.

LONGi has been taking the "upper route" for a long time, which is well known in the industry. Some people in the industry said bluntly: "It is for the vinegar of LONGi BC that the province has wrapped the dumpling of the 'Leader Plan'." ”

If the policy is implemented in all provinces across the country, the BC camp and its "standard-bearer" LONGi may become the biggest beneficiaries of the "Top Runner Program".

If the PV surplus that the top management is desperate to solve, if it is "lobbied" as "only BC is advanced capacity", it is the most trembling supporters of the non-BC technology route.

In recent years, the three major standards of BC, TOPCon and HJT have been inseparably separated in the photovoltaic industry. But why does Hua Sheng, who is in the HJT "Cao Ying", speak for TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact battery), which is also an "enemy camp"?

Xu Xiaohua is low-key, and rarely talks about it outside the product before. Recently, he has spoken out more than once, and the author believes that Xu Xiaohua is ostensibly for TOPCon, but in fact, he is "pulling the banner as a tiger skin", and using TOPCon, which is more powerful and has a larger camp, to "leverage strength" to expand the voice of the non-BC camp.

02 The tragedy of the third child

Years of market experience show that the eldest and the second are fighting, and it is the third who often falls.

Therefore, the concerns of Xu Xiaohua and the HJT camp are not unreasonable.

In the past, from the perspective of pure technology discussion, many people in the industry believed that HJT could replace TOPCon's technology and become the mainstream technology route. And now that the protagonist of the story has become BC, TOPCon will not be able to be replaced for a while.

Through large-scale production, BC is expected to rapidly reduce non-silicon costs. JinkoSolar (688223. SH) and Trina Solar (688599.SH) are accelerating the implementation of TOPCon 3.0 technology, with efficiency targets set at 24.5%-25%, exceeding the aforementioned 24.2% of LONGi's upcoming "benchmark" for BC modules.

When the product performance and price are almost the same, the brand potential energy and the company's strength have become the key to affecting the shipment.

In the BC camp, there are LONGi, Aiko shares (600732. SH) and TCL Solar (002129.SZ). Not to mention TOPCon. The two sides are tense, their strength is equal, and each has its own "thighs" of support, and no one can destroy anyone. On the contrary, the third HJT has more survival anxiety.

In the HJT camp, there are no heavyweight players entering the arena. The existing HJT head companies, except for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), which is running a 1GW HJT pilot line, most of the entrants are cross-border players. They are not highly recognized in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially by customers.

These cross-border players originally wanted to overtake in corners with the help of HJT technology, but unfortunately they have not caught up with the large-scale application of HJT, and they are about to drain their cash flow in the rapid involution.

The current situation of PV production capacity clearance has also made other large manufacturers committed to self-protection and have no time to take care of new HJT production capacity.

It is difficult for the HJT camp to have powerful players in the short term, and it is naturally difficult to lobby the decision-making level to enhance the weight of the voice. Therefore, it is also helpless to use the Internet to speak out and attract attention with the help of social public opinion.

Moreover, BC's advantage is in the distributed market, but the BC camp represented by LONGi is not satisfied with this. If the BC camp intends to enter the centralized system, this will seriously eat away at the "cake" that belongs to the future of HJT.

Since August 2024, when Huaneng Group separately tendered for 1GW of BC modules, China Huadian, State Power Investment Corporation, and China Datang have all set up BC bids in the centralized module procurement. Centralized project customers cannot ignore the market signal that BC is "giving the green light".

Therefore, the HJT camp and Huasheng can be said to be quite anxious.

In addition to the well-known "price war" and "patent war", the photovoltaic industry is now fighting a "data war".

From Mohe to Hainan, many companies in the three camps have conducted module demonstration tests, and of course the results are the best.

For example, in the test results released by LONGi Green Energy, its BC2.0 distributed version has a gain of 6.67% over TOPCon and 7.54% higher than HJT per unit area.

Subsequently, the single-watt power generation capacity of Huasheng New Energy's HJT module is 2.97% higher than that of the second-generation BC module, and it is added that under high temperature and high humidity conditions, the single-watt power generation may be even greater. The same is true for Risen Energy (300118.SZ), which also does HJT.

According to the analysis of industry insiders, there are many factors that lead to inaccurate power generation data, including module area and model, module installation method, installation capacity, light environment, data collection cycle, etc. This gives players with different technical routes room to make "targeted choices" according to the conditions that are beneficial to them.

However, no matter how you "lobby" the market and the upper echelons in public, it is closely related to the interests behind it. The mall is like a battlefield, and no one is a saint.

In Canadian Solar (688472. According to a recent article titled "HJT or TOPCon, It's a Question", Chairman Qu Xiaohua of Canadian Solar, HJT's power generation is 2% higher than that of TOPCon, based on a six-month outdoor test comparison of HJT and TOPCon modules recently conducted by Canadian Solar.

Canadian Solar's main business is TOPCon, so this conclusion was once considered quite objective by the uninformed outside world.

However, according to people close to Canadian Solar, Canadian Solar is interested in deploying HJT modules in North America. The plank road is repaired in the light, and the warehouse is in the dark. It can only be said that the big guys have their own abacus, but they just don't let you see it.

On March 6, the day before the "Moments Bombardment Incident", Xu Xiaohua mentioned at the 10th Roundtable Meeting of China's Photovoltaic Solar Energy High Efficiency 760W+ Club and the press conference of the "Heterojunction Leading Plan" that HJT has avoided patent risks for Chinese enterprises with a 100% completely independent and controllable technical route, which is the "technical ark" of national energy security. ”

03 Hope for a breakthrough is overseas

At the moment, it seems that HJT's greatest hope is overseas.

The Photovoltaic Association predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 may decline by 8.13%-22.54% year-on-year. The global new PV installed capacity increased by 10% year-on-year and is expected to reach 531 GW-583 GW.

Especially in the United States, compared with TOPcon, HJT can save 60% of labor, 30%-40% of electricity consumption, 20% of water consumption, and reduce carbon emissions by 20%, which is the most suitable photovoltaic technology route for expansion in the United States.

Of course, high gross margins in overseas markets are more beneficial to HJT.

According to Risen's 2024 annual performance forecast, its net profit loss after deducting non-profits is 3 billion yuan to 3.8 billion yuan. However, according to the author's understanding from industry insiders, Risen's HJT production line has been fully opened, sales are good, and HJT also made money last year.

This year, if HJT achieves great growth in the North American market, Canadian Solar will also successfully join the North American battle, which may be of great help to HJT to enhance its voice and break through the encirclement of BC and TOPcon. (Alpha Factory Green)