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Focus on the field of innovative short transportation and service robots, and create high-end and young intelligent technology products.
Nine Company is an innovative enterprise in the field of intelligent short transportation and service robots, and has grown from a niche balance bike company to a short transportation giant with an annual income of 10 billion yuan in just ten years. We believe that the company's business model revolves around the innovation and sales of intelligent short transportation and service robots, and has the potential for endogenous growth beyond the industry, following the summary of the founder of Nine, that is, "the technological innovation path of Nine Company is to use edge innovation to hit the center, and the robot technology based on algorithms and vision is extended to other categories through the middle platform system, bringing a subversive product experience that better understands user needs." Founded in 2012, the company is backed by a number of leading VC capital, with the help of Xiaomi's ecological chain to build its own advantages, with Ninebot Nine and Segway Segway, two core independent brands, and in 2020, it was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and became the first share of "VIE+CDR" in China.
According to the company's 24-year performance report, the revenue in 2024 will be 14.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.63%, and the CAGR2020-2024 will reach 23.95%. In terms of performance, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 1.088 billion yuan, an increase of 81.90% year-on-year, and 96.48% from CAGR2020 to 2024. We believe that the improvement of high value-added products, cost reduction and efficiency increase will promote the company's profitability to continue to improve, and the gross profit margin will increase from 23.7% in 2017 to 29.7% in 24Q1-Q3.
The No. 9 electric two-wheeled vehicle is clamped on an intelligent and high-end track, and the new national standard and national subsidy stimulate the release of demand. China is the largest country in the production and sales of electric bicycles, and iResearch data shows that the sales of electric two-wheelers in China will be about 55 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. Catalyzed by multiple favorable factors such as the implementation of the new national standard in September 2025 and the trade-in policy, the growth momentum of the domestic industry is sufficient, and the competition pattern continues to be optimized.
The demand for overseas electric two-wheelers continues to grow, according to the Luyuan prospectus, it is expected that the sales of overseas electric two-wheelers will reach 30.8 million in 2024, of which the sales of Europe/ASEAN/India/the United States will reach 1190/850/240/1.4 million. We believe that the two-wheeled vehicles of No. 9 Company will be the first to release the high-end track, the intelligent high-end image has been established, the product matrix growth, with scale effect, as a leader is expected to benefit from the structural increase of the high-end market and enjoy the industry dividends.
The layout of the intelligent robot track, the blue ocean market of science and technology has broad prospects.
The company's robot business includes lawn mowing robots, distribution robots, etc., and the 24Q1-Q3 lawn mowing robot business achieved revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 379.28% (accounting for 80%+ of the robot business in 23 years). According to QYR forecast, the global autonomous robotic lawn mower market size will be about $643 million in 2023 and is expected to reach $1.339 billion in 2030, with a CAGR2024-2030 rate of 11.4%.
Through the accumulation of product advantages through the underlying intelligent technology, the company launched Navimow, the world's first borderless lawn mower robot brand to achieve commercial landing, to promote the intelligent development of the industry. In addition, in recent years, the company's service robots have continued to iterate and update, expand product application fields and continuously improve product performance, accumulating rich customer resources.
As an innovative platform-based technology enterprise, we believe that Nine Company has significant advantages: (1) Intelligent advantages: stronger innovation genes and core technology system with independent intellectual property rights, digging deep into the potential needs of users, forming "intelligent" brand attributes, and breaking competitive barriers with technology: in 2023, R&D personnel will account for 38.9%, 3000+ domestic + overseas authorized patents, and the R&D rate will be 6+%; (2) Continuous iteration of the underlying technology reserves: three underlying core technologies: smart technology, mobile technology, online + data capability; (3) Diversified business layout and marginal orderly expansion: from "0 to 1" and from "1 to N" development; (4) Global sales network layout: mainstream online platforms at home and abroad have been deployed, and localized offices empower overseas sales; (5) High standard of product quality and service: electric vehicle Emark/DOT/CNAS and other international certifications.
Investment Advice As a global leader in intelligent short transportation, the company has accumulated many years of technology research and development advantages to build product competition barriers, and has a rich product matrix. The traditional main business of balance vehicles & scooters has developed steadily, two-wheeled vehicles have been stimulated by policies to stimulate demand growth, and new businesses such as all-terrain vehicles and robots have been cultivated and expanded, with long-term growth momentum. We expect that the revenue from 2024 to 2026 will reach 141.71/184.79/22.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.63%/30.40%/22.18% respectively; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 10.88/17.32/2.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.90%/59.22%/41.61% respectively; EPS is expected to be 15.16/24.15/34.19 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 39/24/17 times. First coverage, with a "buy" rating.
Risk Warning:
The risk of demand being less than expected, the risk of new product sales being less than expected, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of regulatory policies, etc.
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