I. Introduction

In the context of the acceleration of the global energy transition and the rapid development of the electric vehicle market, solid-state batteries, as a new generation of battery technology, have become a key force to promote the transformation of the new energy industry by virtue of their significant advantages in energy density, safety, cycle life, etc. Its industrialization process continues to accelerate, attracting many enterprises and capital to compete for layout. This report will deeply sort out the competition pattern of the solid-state battery industry, analyze the investment value and logic of core listed companies, compare the technological development trends of China and Japan, suggest potential risks, and give targeted investment strategy suggestions.

Second, the competition pattern of the core link of the solid-state battery industry chain

(1) Electrolyte materials

Tianci Materials: In the field of sulfide electrolytes, Tianci Materials is in the leading position in the industry. In 2024, kilogram-level production will be completed, and in 2025, it is planned to achieve 100-kilogram mass production, and the industrialization progress far exceeds that of peers. It is estimated that by 2030, the cost of sulfide electrolyte is expected to fall to less than 300,000 yuan/ton, and the cost advantage will become more and more significant. Through the breakthrough of mass production process doped with oxygenanion to optimize the interfacial stability, the product performance has been greatly improved. At the same time, the company has successfully bound CATL, BYD and other leading customers, providing a stable channel for product sales and ensuring its share in the high-end market.

Qingdao Weilan: The conductivity of the sulfide system is close to the international advanced level (12mS/cm), showing strong technical strength. With an in-situ solidified electrolyte capacity of 100,000 tons per year, the large-scale production capacity has laid the foundation for its market expansion. Obtaining CATL certification means that the product quality and performance are recognized by industry giants. By cooperating with car companies to develop a low-cost lithium sulfide preparation process, the cost is reduced by 80% compared with imports, and the results are remarkable in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and it is expected to stand out in the market competition with its cost advantage.

R&D New Materials: Focusing on the oxide electrolyte route, its products have strong stability, and have been stably supplied to new energy vehicle manufacturers, proving the reliability and practicability of the products. High-purity lithium sulfide has achieved small-batch production, bringing new business growth points to the company. In 2025, the oxide electrolyte production capacity is planned to reach 5,000 tons, which is closely adapted to the rapid loading demand of semi-solid-state batteries, and occupies a certain market share in the low-end market due to the relatively low cost of oxide electrolyte.

Xiamen Tungsten New Energy: The world's first CVD lithium sulfide mass production process, the cost has been reduced to 200,000 yuan/ton (import price is 1 million yuan/ton), and the cost has been greatly reduced to enhance the competitiveness of products. The energy density of the positive electrode of the NL structure produced by this process has been increased by 15%, which improves the product performance. Through ATL to cut into Apple's supply chain, and solid-state battery materials to send samples to CATL and Qingtao Energy, customer resources are high-quality and extensive, creating favorable conditions for product promotion and market expansion.

The focus of competition in this link is that the sulfide route dominates the high-end market with its advantages such as high energy density, and companies such as CATL and Tianci Materials occupy a leading position; Due to the relatively low cost of the oxide route, it adapts to the needs of low-end cost reduction, and the new materials of the research and development play an important role in this field. Through continuous process innovation, domestic enterprises will accelerate the commercialization process of solid-state battery electrolyte materials and enhance their competitiveness in the global market.

(2) Positive and negative electrode materials

Rongbai Technology: The cost of lithium-rich manganese-based cathode materials is 15% lower than that of ternary, which has advantages in terms of cost, and adapts to the high voltage needs of all-solid-state batteries, with obvious technical advantages, and plans to realize the application on the car in 2025, which is expected to quickly open the market. In 2025, the production capacity of high-nickel ternary cathode is planned to be 300,000 tons, accounting for 30% of the global solid-state cathode, and the large-scale production capacity layout will provide strong support for the increase of its market share.

Dangsheng Technology: The ultra-high nickel cathode (Ni≥90%) has passed the CATL certification, and the energy density has exceeded 400Wh/kg, and its technical strength has been recognized by the industry. Jointly develop ultra-high nickel materials with Qingtao Energy, with an estimated shipment of 50,000 tons in 2025, and achieve resource sharing and complementary advantages through cooperation with other enterprises, and further enhance market competitiveness.

beiteri (silicon carbon anode): silicon-based anode has a specific capacity of 1,500mAh/g, suitable for 4680 large cylindrical and solid-state batteries, and its technology is at the world's leading level, with the world's largest market share and a solid market position. The mass production cost is 20% lower than that of its peers, and the first efficiency is increased to 86%, which makes it more competitive in the market with cost and performance advantages.

Shanshan Co., Ltd.: The only enterprise in the world that spans the cathode, anode and electrolyte, realizes the layout of all materials, and has the advantages of a complete industrial chain. The production capacity of silicon-carbon anode for solid-state batteries is 20,000 tons/year, which provides a production capacity guarantee for it in the solid-state battery anode material market. Cooperate with Qingtao Energy to develop sulfide system adaptation anode, and continuously improve product performance and competitiveness through cooperation.

The focus of competition in this link is that cathode materials are developing in the direction of high energy density, and lithium-rich manganese-based and ultra-high nickel materials have become hot spots for research and development; The anode material is upgraded to silicon-based/lithium metal. Technology iteration is the core driving force to promote leading enterprises to increase market share, and enterprises with technical advantages and production capacity layout will occupy a dominant position in market competition.

(3) Equipment and process

Pilot Intelligence: As the world's first supplier of dry electrode lines, it has high technical barriers. Bound to Tesla's 4680 production line, the order visibility in 2025 will reach 8 billion yuan, with sufficient orders and guaranteed performance growth. Its solid-state electrolyte coating machine and dry molding equipment cover the whole process of solid-state battery production, realize the layout of the whole industrial chain, provide customers with one-stop solutions, and enhance market competitiveness.

Naconoel: The only enterprise in China that realizes the mass production of dry rolling equipment, realizes domestic substitution, and breaks the monopoly of foreign technology. Obtained an order of 100 million yuan from CATL and was recognized by the industry leader. In 2025, the gross profit margin of equipment will exceed 50%, and the profitability will be strong. Continuous rolling technology improves mass production consistency, with a yield rate of 95%, obvious process advantages, and reliable product quality.

Mike Moore / Munster: Sulfide electrolytes require solvent-free dry processing, and the unit price of the equipment is 4 to 5 times that of the wet process, with high technical barriers and high added value of the product. Cooperate with Weilan New Energy and Huineng Technology in the pilot line, and continuously optimize product performance and expand market share through cooperation.

The focus of competition in this link is that with the advancement of solid-state battery industrialization, the demand for equipment will usher in explosive growth after 2027. Enterprises with dry technology reserves will dominate the market, with a gross profit margin of more than 50% for equipment, and high profit margins to attract many enterprises to layout, and the market competition is fierce.

(4) Battery manufacturers

CATL: The sulfide all-solid-state battery laboratory has an energy density of 500Wh/kg, and its technology is at the leading level in the industry, and it is planned to be mass-produced in 2027 (with a production capacity of 20GWh), which is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale commercial application. The number of patents is among the top three in the world, and the technology research and development strength is strong. Cooperate with Chery to load vehicles, with a target market share of more than 40%, and accelerate the implementation of technology and market expansion through cooperation with car companies.

Qingtao Energy: The semi-solid-state battery has been installed in the NIO ET7 with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, and the product has been verified by the market. In 2025, a separator-free all-solid-state battery will be launched, and technological innovation continues. In 2025, the production capacity of semi-solid-state batteries will be 50GWh, which is a large production capacity. Bound to SAIC, BAIC and other car companies, to provide a stable channel for product sales, the market card position advantage is obvious.

Gotion Hi-Tech: Focusing on the silicon anode + sulfide route, the 360Wh/kg semi-solid-state battery has been mass-produced and installed in the NIO ET7, with mature technology and mass production applications. In 2027, the production capacity of all-solid-state batteries is planned to be 5GWh to provide capacity guarantee for future development. The self-sufficiency rate of auxiliary materials such as copper foil and separator exceeds 80%, with significant cost advantages and more price competitiveness in market competition.

Huineng Technology: The world's first all-solid-state battery automatic production line was put into operation, achieving a breakthrough in industrialization. The cost is reduced by 40% compared with the traditional solution, and the cost advantage is obvious. Received an order from Mercedes-Benz for road tests, and its products have been recognized by internationally renowned car companies, and important progress has been made in its global layout.

The focus of competition in this link is that industry giants such as CATL and BYD lead the formulation of technical standards by virtue of their technological and market advantages. Second-tier manufacturers such as Qingtao Energy have seized market share by binding differentiated routes such as large car companies, and the market competition pattern has shown a diversified trend.

3. Comparison of the competition pattern between China and Japan

Japan's advantage: Toyota and Nissan have an early layout of the sulfide route and plan to commercialize it in 2027, so they have a first-mover advantage. Holding 63% of the solid-state battery patents, it has built a strong patent barrier and occupies a favorable position in technology research and development and market expansion.

China's anti-overtaking strategy: CATL, BYD and other Chinese enterprises through industrial chain synergy, such as the Tianci-Ningde-BYD ecosystem, integrate upstream and downstream resources, and accelerate the mass production process. Chinese companies are more capable of cost control and are able to launch products at more competitive prices, which is expected to achieve corner overtaking in the global market competition.

4. Risk Warning

Technical risks: The Chinese Academy of Sciences has made progress in chloride electrolytes, and if chloride electrolytes achieve technological breakthroughs, they may subvert the existing sulfide systems, which will expose the current R&D and production based on sulfide systems to huge risks, and enterprises need to pay close attention to technological development trends and increase R&D investment to cope with potential technological changes.

Risk of overcapacity: In 2025, the planned capacity of solid-state batteries will exceed 200GWh, but the actual demand may be less than 50%, which may lead to intensified market competition, lower product prices, and damaged corporate profitability. Enterprises need to plan their production capacity reasonably and avoid blind expansion.

Policy risk: The EU carbon tariff policy has increased the export cost of domestic enterprises (42 euros per ton of carbon cost), and at the same time, products need to pass UN R100 certification to open the market, and policy factors pose a challenge to enterprises to expand into the international market. Enterprises need to actively respond to policy changes, optimize product structure, improve product quality, reduce export costs, and meet international market access requirements. $Pilot Intelligence (SZ300450) $$ Rongbai Technology (SH688005) $$ Tianci Materials (SZ002709) $