(Source: Silver Persimmon Finance).

Ground-mounted power stations and industrial and commercial distributed projects will still have strong installed power in 2025, and it is expected that the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is still expected to maintain growth in 2025.

On February 26, the market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, with the GEM index leading the rise. In terms of sectors, steel, photovoltaics, securities, humanoid robots and other sectors were among the top gainers, while agriculture, airports, precious metals and other sectors were among the top decliners. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.23%. In terms of ETFs, Huatai Pineapple CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (515790) closed up 3.21%, and among the constituent stocks, JinkoSolar (688223. SH) rose 8.88%, Trina Solar (688599. SH) rose 8.01%, and LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH) rose 5.96%.

On the news side, on February 25, a number of leading PV companies raised module prices. The person in charge of LONGi Green Energy's business said that the company's module prices have indeed increased, but the specific price cannot be disclosed for the time being. Tongwei responded that the company's module prices are expected to rise, but the specific price increase is inconvenient to disclose for the time being. JinkoSolar and Trina Solar said that the company has raised the price of photovoltaic modules by 0.01 yuan to 0.03 yuan/watt.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs to Promote the High-quality Development of New Energy", which clearly states that "the old and the new will be separated" on June 1, 2025. The old project is connected to the existing relevant electricity scale policy with a guaranteed nature; The scale of electricity that can be included in the "price settlement mechanism for sustainable development of new energy" shall be determined by each locality. In response to this news, developers around the world began to increase their procurement of modules, which in turn drove up prices.

Longzhong Information believes that from the perspective of module orders, the impact of the policy side on market sentiment has begun one after another, and industry shipments have accelerated slightly, which in turn has led to a slight increase in prices, but on the whole, industry prices are still below the cost line, and industry losses still exist. It is expected that the overall trend of the industry will still show an upward trend in the future, and the new orders for the new month are expected to rise compared with February, and the market trading tends to be active.

Haitong International Securities believes that the current stock price and fundamentals of the photovoltaic sector are at the bottom, and the current industry has begun to take shape, and the bottom sector has great potential in the context of stimulating the capital market, and the follow-up investment opportunities are worth paying attention to.

Guojin Securities believes that the recent domestic and foreign demand and price signals of photovoltaic are positive, and it is expected to usher in a good start in volume and price after the holiday. In the absence of a clear policy change node at the end of 2024, the installation data that once again exceeded expectations further proves that the demand elasticity of the domestic market is great, and there is no need to repeatedly worry about the growth pressure brought by the "high base". Combined with the recent official draft of the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation", the absolute value and proportion of the installed capacity of household projects that are potentially greatly affected by policy changes have decreased significantly in 2024, and ground power stations and industrial and commercial distributed projects will still have strong installed power in 2025, and it is expected that the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is still expected to maintain growth in 2025.