Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that there was no cold repair of photovoltaic glass in February, and the overall supply side was stable; After March, the rush to install and the demand resonance in the peak season are expected to significantly improve the production schedule of all links month-on-month, and according to SMM, the module production schedule in March will exceed 50GW. Photovoltaic glass inventory is expected to be further reduced, and the price of new orders is expected to rise, which is expected to drive profit recovery. In January 2025, Datang Group invited bids for the 2025-2026 PV module framework procurement, with an estimated total purchase volume of 19.5/2/1GW for TOPCon, HJT and BC, respectively.

The main views of Hua Chuang Securities are as follows:

The price of photovoltaic glass is running at a low level, and the inventory inflection point is approaching. According to Zhuochuang information, this week's 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was reported at 19.25 yuan/m2, flat week-on-week; 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panel reported 12.00 yuan/m2, flat week-on-week. As of Thursday, the number of industry inventory days was about 37.2 days, down 2.1 days week-on-week and 5.3% month-on-week.

In February, there was no cold repair of photovoltaic glass, and the overall supply side was stable. According to Zhuochuang information, since 2025, only 3,700t/d photovoltaic glass production capacity in China has been cold repaired in January. In February 2025, the downstream procurement of photovoltaic glass was actively transacted, and according to SMM data, the production schedule of photovoltaic glass in February remained at the beginning of 40GW, and it is expected that the overall balance will be in a tight state in the first quarter.

Under the expectation of month-on-month improvement in demand, the price of new orders of photovoltaic glass is expected to rise in March. After March, the rush to install and the demand resonance in the peak season are expected to significantly improve the production schedule of all links month-on-month, and according to SMM, the module production schedule in March will exceed 50GW. Photovoltaic glass inventory is expected to be further reduced, and the price of new orders is expected to rise, which is expected to drive profit recovery.

The demonstration results of BC products are excellent. According to the global photovoltaic public account, the latest data of a commercial building roof demonstration project in Kunming, Yunnan Province has been released, and the project has carried out a comparison of the power generation of BC, TOPCon, and HJT, and the empirical data covers November 24 to early February 25. Under the same unit area, the actual power generation capacity of LONGi's BC second-generation products is 6.67% higher than that of TOPCon and 7.54% higher than that of HJT. In terms of power generation per watt, LONGi's BC second-generation products generate 3.6% more power than TOPCon and 4.5% higher than HJT.

The recognition of BC products continued to improve, and the industrialization accelerated development. In January 2025, Datang Group's 2025-2026 PV module framework procurement bidding was held, with an estimated total procurement volume of 19.5/2/1GW for TOPCon, HJT and BC, respectively. From the current planning, by the end of 2025, LONGi Green Energy's HPBC2.0 cell production capacity is expected to reach 50GW, and Aiko's ABC module production capacity is expected to reach 35GW. BC efficiency continues to break through, industrialization accelerates, it is recommended to pay attention to BC related industrial chain targets.

PV industry chain price:

(1) Main material link: According to InfoLinkConsulting, the average price of polysilicon dense material/granular material this week was 39.0/37.0 yuan/kg, which was flat /+2.8% compared with last week. The average price of 182-183.75mm/210mm mono-Si P-type silicon wafers was RMB 1.15/1.70/piece, unchanged/unchanged from last week. The average price of 182-183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers was 1.18/1.30/1.55 yuan/piece, which was the same/flat/flat compared with last week.

The average price of 182-183.75mm/210mm mono PERC cells was RMB 0.330/0.280/W, unchanged from last week. The prices of 182-183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm TOPCon cells were reported at RMB 0.290/0.285/0.295/W, unchanged from last week/+1.8%/unchanged. The price of 182*182-210mm/210mm bifacial double-glass PERC modules was reported at RMB 0.65/0.66/W, unchanged/flat from last week. This week, the price of 182-183.75mm TOPCon double-glass modules was reported at 0.69 yuan/W, unchanged from last week; The price of 210mm HJT double-glass module was reported at 0.85 yuan/W, unchanged from last week.

(2) Auxiliary materials: This week, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was reported at 19.25 yuan/m2, which was the same as last week; The price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panels was reported at 12 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week. According to Sobi Consulting, the price of transparent EVA film this week was reported at 5.89 yuan/m2, which was the same as last week; The price of white EVA film was reported at 6.42 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week; The price of POE film was reported at 8.28 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week.

Investment Advice:

(1) Polysilicon, integrated modules and auxiliary materials are expected to improve their profitability under the expectation of improved supply and demand and policy regulation. It is recommended to pay attention to: polysilicon sector, Tongwei (600438.SH), GCL Technology (03800), Daqo Energy (688303.SH); Integrated modules, LONGi (601012.SH), JinkoSolar (688223.SH), JA Solar (002459.SZ), Trina Solar (688599.SH), Canadian Solar (688472.SH); Auxiliary material faucets, Foster (603806.SH), Follett (601865.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), etc.

(2) The layout of new technologies is leading, and it is expected that the volume and profits will rise. It is recommended to pay attention to: BC mass production related, LONGi (601012.SH), Aiko (600732.SH), Dier Laser (300776.SZ), Yubang New Materials (301266.SZ), Kuangshun Materials (300537.SZ), etc.; Less silver/silver paste technology, poly and materials (688503.SH), Dike shares (300842.SZ).

(3) Benefiting from the explosion of emerging market demand and the layout of inverters and brackets in high-profitability areas. It is recommended to pay attention to: inverter link, Deye (605117.SH), Sungrow (300274.SZ), SolaX Energy (688708.SH), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ); Bracket link, Arctech (688408.SH), Yihua shares (002897.SZ).

Risk Warning:

Terminal demand is less than expected, market competition is intensifying, upstream raw material price fluctuations, trade friction factors, industry policy changes, etc.