Recently, a reporter from the "China Times" counted the 2024 performance forecast of 83 battery and energy metal companies, and the total profit of 83 companies was 29.598 billion yuan, with an average of 357 million yuan. Among the 38 profitable enterprises, CATL (300750. SZ) has the strongest profitability, with a net profit range of 49 billion yuan to 53 billion yuan. The total profit of these 38 companies was 58.857 billion yuan to 65.039 billion yuan, and the net profit of CATL accounted for more than 8%. In addition, 22 of the 83 companies that performed well were profitable, indicating that profitable companies are more likely to achieve growth.

According to statistics, unlike in 2023, there will be more loss-making enterprises in 2024. In 2024, 45 companies will report losses, accounting for 54% of 83 companies. In addition to the 24 companies that continued to lose money, another 21 companies lost money for the first time. At the same time, the two major lithium industry leaders with the largest losses, among them, Ganfeng Lithium (002460. SZ) lost at least 1.4 billion yuan, and Tianqi Lithium (002466. SZ) lost at least 7.1 billion yuan.

Earnings are down

In 2024, the reporter counted 57 companies in the lithium battery industry that announced their 2023 performance forecasts. In 2023, most of them are profitable, with 39 of them achieving cumulative performance of 113.4 billion yuan and an average of 2.9 billion yuan; The 18 loss-making companies lost a total of 8.7 billion yuan, with an average loss of 483 million yuan. The total profit of 57 enterprises was about 104.7 billion yuan.

In 2025, the reporter obtained the forecast net profit data of a total of 83 companies in the field of batteries and energy metals through Windla. In the past year, the situation has not gotten better, the majority of loss-making companies in the industry, and the overall profits are shrinking, with a total profit of 29.598 billion yuan - 41.602 billion yuan for 83 companies.

From the perspective of 38 profitable enterprises, their cumulative net profit ranges from 58.857 billion yuan to 65.039 billion yuan, and the average profit is 1.549 billion yuan to 1.712 billion yuan. The top 20 profiteering companies include CATL, ST Shengtun (600711.SH), Yongxing Materials (002756. SZ), beiteri (835185. BJ) and Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ), etc., covering six major fields: power batteries, cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, parts, equipment manufacturing, and lithium mines. Moreover, among the 20 companies, 11 have achieved a turnaround or pre-increase.

Even in the trough of the industry, most of the money still flowed to CATL, and its net profit is expected to be between 49 billion yuan and 53 billion yuan, a slight increase of 20% year-on-year. In addition, only ST Shengtun is expected to make a profit of more than 1 billion yuan, with a net profit of up to 2.15 billion yuan, and Yongxing Materials' net profit of up to 1.23 billion yuan, which is expected to decrease by 69.77% year-on-year.

In addition, there are 20 companies with a net profit ceiling of 110 million yuan to 792 million yuan, with a cumulative profit of 6.138 billion yuan. There are 15 companies in the range of 09 million yuan to 86 million yuan, with a total of 839 million yuan.

There are also a few companies with good performance, but the performance is clearly differentiated. Among the 83 companies, only 22 companies have a year-on-year increase in net profit, and all of them are profitable companies. There are 17 companies with an increase of more than 100%, and the best performer is Dow Technology (300409. SZ), which is expected to increase by 745.30% year-on-year. ST Shengtun is second, which is expected to increase by 712.26% year-on-year; Zhongke Electric ranks third, and is expected to increase by 680%.

Dow Technology pointed out that the turnaround in 2024 will be mainly affected by four major factors: the increase in ternary precursor and copper cathode shipments, the increase in the proportion of overseas shipments, the release of copper and cobalt production capacity, the reduction of inventory price decline provisions, and the impact of non-recurring profits and losses such as government subsidies of 42 million yuan. ST Shengtun's performance growth is also related to the increase in copper prices. Zhongke Electric said that affected by the increase in the penetration rate of downstream new energy vehicles, especially fast charging models, and the rapid development of the energy storage market, the production and sales of lithium-ion battery anode materials have increased significantly, in addition, there are also cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures to enhance profitability, Zhongke Electric told reporters that through research and development cooperation with customers, fast charging related products will achieve some breakthroughs in 2023, and in 2024, with the launch of fast charging models and batch growth, it has brought a relatively rapid and significant improvement.

From the perspective of enterprises that have achieved profitability but are expected to decrease, the maximum decline in net profit is more than 50%, including leading enterprises in all links of the industrial chain, such as beiteri and Hunan Yuneng (301358. SZ), Dangsheng Technology (300073. SZ), Tianci Materials (002709. SZ) and other enterprises. Among them, Paineng Technology (688063. SH) had the largest pre-decline, reaching 93.6%, with a maximum profit of 45 million yuan, followed by Ruitai New Materials (301238.SZ), with a pre-decrease of 82.85%, with a maximum profit of 110 million yuan.

Peneng Technology said that the global economic situation is complex, downstream companies continue to go to the warehouse, and the sales price of energy storage products has led to a decline in revenue, but under the optimization of cost control and the decline in raw material prices, the gross profit margin has remained relatively stable. It is said that Ruitai New Materials last year had more projects under construction and new production, management expenses and depreciation and amortization costs increased significantly, while the price of battery materials fell significantly, and the profit decline has not been stopped under the optimization of customer structure, cost reduction and efficiency increase and continuous research and development of new products.

The number of loss-making enterprises has increased

From the perspective of 45 loss-making enterprises, the total loss is 23.436 billion yuan to 29.26 billion yuan, and the average loss of each is 521 million yuan to 650 million yuan. In terms of the lowest value of losses, there are 12 companies with losses of less than 100 million yuan; There are 28 companies with losses of more than 100 million yuan and less than 1 billion yuan; There are 4 companies with losses of more than 1 billion yuan and less than 2 billion yuan; Finally, the company with the most losses is Tianqi Lithium, with a loss of at least 7.1 billion yuan.

For Tianqi Lithium, under the downward trend of lithium prices, the time-cycle mismatch between the pricing mechanism of lithium concentrate and the sales pricing mechanism of lithium chemical products has not yet ended. In addition, the income tax recovery of the associate company SQM, the asset impairment loss of the lithium hydroxide project and the loss caused by exchange rate changes are also eroding Tianqi Lithium's profits. Tianqi Lithium told reporters that the termination of investment in the construction of the "second phase of the 24,000-ton-per-year battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate project" can avoid the waste of further resource investment, reduce potential economic losses, and have positive significance for reducing investment risks and improving the company's operations, and mentioned that the 30,000-ton-per-year lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, which is under construction, can be flexibly adjusted to produce lithium carbonate products.

The five companies with the most losses are Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Nandu Power (300068. SZ), Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759. SZ) and German Nano (300769.SZ), whose main products include lithium ore, lithium salt, lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries, lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate, with a total loss of 12.21 billion yuan, accounting for 5% of all losses. Among them, the decline in the price of lithium products and the decline in the price of assets are their common problems, behind which are the fluctuations in raw material prices and market competition. For a loss of 1.25 billion yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, Tianji Co., Ltd. mentioned that the industry has a phased overcapacity, predicts a decline in profitability in the future, and the goodwill of the asset group is impaired after testing, and the estimated impairment amount is about 1 billion yuan.

The industry is reshuffling

In 2024, the loss of the lithium battery industry is basically a cliff-like, in addition to the 24 companies that continue to lose money, there are 21 companies that will lose money for the first time in 2024, and the net profit of these 21 companies will decline by 126.32%-4436.22% year-on-year, compared with 2023, their profits will be at least halved. At the same time, the expected decline of Nandu Power and Tianji shares is as high as 4436.22% and 4193.89%, and Jiayuan Technology (688388. SH), NORD (600110. SH), copper crown copper foil (301217. SZ), Haike Xinyuan (301292. SZ) have all decreased by more than 1000%.

In addition to the reasons such as falling prices and impairment provisions, Nandu Power also pointed out that with the progress of battery technology and the improvement of service life, the number of retired waste batteries has decreased, the recycling industry has been in a state of oversupply for a long time, and the price of recycled waste batteries has continued to be at a high level, which has affected the gross profit margin of products. In terms of energy storage, due to the long period of project ordering, delivery and acceptance, Nandu Power chose to give up the low gross profit order, but due to the impact of a large number of delayed shipments of overseas customer orders, the shipment volume in the second half of the year fell sharply, and the capacity utilization rate was insufficient, which further reduced the gross profit, which was not enough to fully cover the company's daily expenses during the period.

The large losses of Jiayuan Technology, Nord and Tongguan Copper Foil are all related to copper foil. They all mentioned that the lithium battery copper foil market is in a state of oversupply, and the market competition is fierce, resulting in a sharp decline in copper foil processing fees and at a low level, while the price of raw material copper is generally on an upward trend in 2024, resulting in an increase in the company's actual production cost of copper foil and a compression of profit margins.

Jiayuan Technology also said that in terms of lithium battery copper foil, the company will develop and produce copper foil products with thinner thickness and better performance indicators according to the application needs of downstream customers, strengthen customization and high-end, and increase the proportion of high value-added products. In terms of market development, it will focus on increasing the company's marketing and development efforts to further consolidate and expand the existing market share. In terms of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the company will continue to optimize the base construction plan and construction plan, and scientifically grasp the construction progress; standardize the management of consumable materials such as copper and reduce the cost of copper; Optimize the personnel structure and improve operational efficiency; Continue to open sources and reduce expenditures, reduce costs and increase efficiency.

In fact, in the case that the relationship between supply and demand has not been reversed, and product price reductions are difficult to avoid, it is the choice of many companies to try their best to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but whether they can stop losses is "different from person to person" and full of uncertainty. Liu Zhigeng, a well-known financial and tax audit expert and senior certified public accountant, told reporters, "If manufacturing enterprises want to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the measures that can be implemented include optimizing all business processes based on production processes, optimizing supply chain management, introducing advanced technology and talents, improving employee skills and efficiency, eliminating waste phenomena such as material and human consumption, comprehensively managing costs and controlling the trend of production cost changes in a timely manner." For example, enterprises can use big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and other technologies to build a set of intelligent logistics service system covering the whole process of procurement, transportation, warehousing, distribution, installation, etc., clarify the business requirements, service standards and cost quotas of each process in the system, and ensure the standardization and smoothness of the whole process. ”

At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Conference in March 2024, Liu Jincheng, chairman of EVE, said that battery factories have been differentiated in 2023, and 2024 will be a watershed, and the financial status of battery factories will also become an important consideration for customers. Volume prices are not the main battlefield, and they are not sustainable, and second-tier enterprises should return to the essence of the industry and improve the level of technology and quality.

In the imbalance between supply and demand and the continuous price reduction of products, the lithium battery industry has gone through the past year. As Liu Jincheng said, among the battery companies, the first echelon of CATL and BYD are far ahead, forming a very strong moat. Which companies will stick to the end in the reshuffle, reporters will continue to pay attention.