Zhitong Financial APP learned that Soochow Securities released a research report saying that 25 years is the first year of CVD silicon carbon anode, and the total global shipments are expected to reach 1,500 tons, and the global industry demand is expected to grow to 80,000 tons in 2030, achieving 50 times growth in 5 years. Optimistic about the leaders in each link, recommend Tiannai Technology (688116.SH), Yuanli (300174.SZ), Putailai (603659.SH), Beiteri (835185), Xinde New Materials (301349.SZ), pay attention to Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Shengquan Group (605589.SH), Ribo Fashion (603196.SH), Defu Technology (301511.SZ), etc.

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high energy density of silicon-based anode has significant advantages, and the technology breakthrough of silicon carbon anode on the CVD route has opened up the market space. Silicon-based anode can improve the energy density of the battery and become the upgrade direction of anode materials in the future. Previously, the silicon-based anode was dominated by the ball milling method of silicon carbon anode and silicon oxygen anode, and the ball milling method of silicon carbon anode still had the problem of expansion, poor cycle performance, low first effect of silicon oxygen anode, pre-lithiation will greatly increase the cost, and the overall cost performance is not high. The CVD silicon carbon anode stores silicon through the porous carbon skeleton, and buffers the volume expansion in the process of silicon lithium intercalation through the void inside the porous carbon, so the expansion rate is low, the cycle is excellent, and the carbon skeleton itself is small in density and light in weight, which makes the material energy density higher, the performance potential is large, and the market space is opened.

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consumer market is expected to reach 1,500 tons in 25 years, and the global demand will reach 80,000 tons in 2030. Previously, the consumer field was dominated by silicon oxygen anode, which was mainly used in the overseas power tool market; Since 24 years, CVD silicon carbon anode has been widely used in high-end mobile phone models, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 25%+ in 25 years, and the doping ratio of silicon-based anode is about 6% at present, and it is expected to increase to 10%+ in the future; In the field of power, silicon carbon anode was initially used in cylindrical batteries, Tesla 21700 battery adopts ball mill silicon carbon anode scheme, and the addition ratio is low, but the ball mill method is difficult to meet the performance requirements of power batteries, 4680 batteries and overseas ternary direction batteries are expected to use the CVD method scheme in the future, and domestic battery factories have taken the lead in applying it in 25 years, and the market demand scale of CVD silicon carbon anode has increased rapidly. Considering the volume of consumption and power market, it is estimated that the demand for CVD silicon carbon anode will reach 1,500 tons in 2025, and in 2030, with the increase in the penetration rate of CVD silicon carbon anode and the decline in cost to open up the market space, the penetration rate will increase to 30%+, and the corresponding total demand will reach about 80,000 tons.

Mainstream manufacturers are accelerating the layout of CVD routes, and the long-term cost is expected to drop to less than 200,000 yuan/ton, driving the increase in industrial demand. At present, the production capacity of silicon-based anode is mainly silicon oxygen and ball milling silicon-carbon, and in the CVD production capacity planning, overseas Group14 has been mass-produced, start-ups such as Tianmu Pilot and Lanxi Zhide have 100-ton production capacity, and traditional anode companies such as beiteri and Putailai have followed up one after another; At present, the price of silicon carbon anode is 400,000 yuan/ton +, mainly because of the high proportion of porous carbon in the cost, and the production equipment is still 20 kg, in the long term, with the large-scale application of 100kg equipment, and the cost reduction of porous carbon raw materials, the price of silicon carbon anode is expected to drop to less than 200,000 yuan/ton, calculated according to the 10% addition ratio, the corresponding cost per ton of anode is increased by less than 20,000 yuan, and the battery cost is increased by less than 0.015 yuan/wh, the overall cost is controllable, and the cost performance is further improved.

Raw materials such as porous carbon, single-walled carbon tubes and PAA benefit from the large amount of silicon carbon anode. The core raw material of silicon carbon anode is porous carbon, and the pore making technology and product design of porous carbon directly determine the performance of silicon carbon anode, and the industry barriers are high. It is estimated that the demand for silicon carbon anode will reach 80,000 tons in 2030, corresponding to a market space of 13 billion yuan, and the demand for porous carbon will correspond to 40,000 tons, and the price will be reduced to about 130,000 yuan/ton, corresponding to a market space of 5 billion yuan, and silane is expected to correspond to a demand of 40,000 tons, corresponding to a market space of 1.6 billion yuan. The proportion of single-walled carbon tube powder is expected to reach about 0.2%, corresponding to 1,300 tons + demand and 330,000 tons of slurry in 2030.

Source: Zhitong Financial Network