Photovoltaic modules are the manufacturing link closest to the terminal power station, and they are usually the most intuitive reflection of the industry's cold and warmth. As of this evening, seven of the top 10 PV module companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, of which only GCL Integration and JinkoSolar expect a positive net profit in 2024.

Late today, GCL Integration (002506. SZ) announced that in 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 55 million yuan to 80 million yuan;

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are eight listed companies in the top 10 module shipment list forecast by industry body PV-tech in 2024, of which only Canadian Solar (688472. SH) did not disclose its results for the previous year. Among the seven listed companies that have disclosed their earnings forecasts, only GCL Integration and JinkoSolar (688223. SH) expects a positive net profit last year. A number of loss-making enterprises mentioned that the reason for the large losses is related to the increase in asset impairment provisions due to technological iteration.

GCL Integrated has a production capacity covering both cells and modules, and is a company with a low burden of P-type assets. In terms of production capacity, the company has formed 30GW of high-efficiency large-size module production capacity and 14GW of TOPCon cell production capacity. In the downward cycle of the industry, GCL Integration's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of last year was 10.1%, 7.6% and 11.4% respectively due to the lack of silicon wafers, which was at a high level in the industry.

As for the reason for the positive net profit, the company said that during the reporting period, the supply and demand imbalance in the photovoltaic industry and the deep adjustment of product prices made the company take a series of measures. In the module sector, the company's cell production capacity and module utilization rate ranked among the top in the industry, and module shipments increased significantly year-on-year. According to the data provided by the company, in 2024, the company will rank among the top 4 in the industry in the number of bids won in the bidding of domestic central state-owned enterprise projects, and has successively won bids/shortlisted for module centralized procurement projects such as China Resources, China National Nuclear Corporation, and Datang.

It is worth noting that GCL Integration is one of the few photovoltaic companies that still has the power to expand its production capacity in the battery sector. In November 2024, GCL-SI was approved for the private placement, and according to the company's plan, it will further expand its advanced production capacity, increase liquidity and reduce the debt ratio after the completion of the private placement. Therefore, the agency further predicts that GCL-SI's battery production capacity is expected to reach 24GW in 2025, and the proportion of battery self-supply will increase from 47% to 69%.

Another profitable module maker is JinkoSolar. According to the company's performance forecast, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million yuan to 120 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 98.92% to 98.39%. The company said that the company's operating performance fell sharply year-on-year due to the decline in gross profit margin caused by low-price orders, as well as the elimination of backward production capacity and fire accidents.

Despite the decline, JinkoSolar remains the only PV company among the top five module shipments to achieve profitability. LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ), Trina Solar (688599. SH), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438. SH) lost money to varying degrees last year. Among them, LONGi Green Energy expects a net profit loss of 8.2 billion yuan to 8.8 billion yuan for the whole year.

However, some analysts believe that the industrial chain has entered a price decline cycle since the end of 2022, and the price has basically bottomed out in the second half of 2024. In the upstream polysilicon sector, polysilicon prices have rebounded for several weeks, driving wafer, cell, and module prices to recover. With the supply-side reform of price limit, self-discipline and production limit, energy consumption control and other measures, the marginal repair of the photovoltaic industry has gradually begun.