China UAV (688297): 24 years of performance loss in the future to benefit from the growth of UAV domestic and military trade markets
DATE:  Jan 22 2025

The company issued the "2024 Annual Results Pre-loss Announcement", which is expected to be attributable to the parent company of -58 million yuan to -49 million yuan in 2024. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be -67.5 million yuan to -58.5 million yuan.

24-year performance pre-loss, Q3 inventory increase & prepaid accounts increase, contract liabilities rebounded. The company issued the "2024 Annual Results Pre-loss Announcement", and it is expected that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be -58 million yuan to -49 million yuan. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be -67.5 million yuan to -58.5 million yuan. The main reasons for the pre-loss of performance are 1) a sharp decline in revenue: the fluctuation of the international market demand cycle, the adjustment of the rhythm of domestic market demand and the postponement of the procurement plan of key customers, etc., the company's new orders in the reporting period were less than expected, and the number of products delivered decreased compared with the same period last year. 2) Normal occurrence of expenses: The company adheres to technological innovation, continues to increase R&D investment, and all kinds of operating expenses occur normally. In terms of balance sheet: the company's inventory reached 1.872 billion in the first three quarters of 24, an increase of 89.28% from the beginning of the year; prepaid accounts amounted to RMB105 million, an increase of 600.0% from the beginning of the year; The contract liabilities were 283 million, an increase of 249.38% from the beginning of the year.

The new model led the air show, and the UAV collaboration system is becoming more and more complete. On November 12, the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition opened at the Zhuhai International Airshow Center, and the company's self-developed "Pterodactyl" and "Cloud Shadow" series of multi-model advanced UAVs were collectively exhibited, among which more than 10 types of UAVs such as Pterodactyl-6 and Yunying-350 made their public debut, and the Pterodactyl-X UAV comprehensive anti-submarine configuration was displayed for the first time. At the scene of this air show, "Pterodactyl" and "Yunying" gathered together to display large and medium-sized UAV systems including Pterodactyl-6 and Pterodactyl-X, as well as small and medium-sized UAV systems of the Yunying series, from 10 kg to 6 tons, with a full-scene series of lineages of "high, medium and low" collocation and "large, medium and small" integration. From the perspective of combat effectiveness, in the actual combat environment, the "Pterodactyl" and "Cloud Shadow" UAVs have realized the mixed grouping and flexible matching between different models, and have a "large, medium, small" and "high, medium and low" combat system, realizing the package supply of different intensities and different types of confrontation. Through the systematic combat mode, the synergistic effect of "1 + 1 is greater than 2" is achieved, thereby improving the overall combat efficiency.

Civilian: "Pterodactyl" UAV helps the high-quality development of the civil UAV industry. 1) "Great Meteorology, Great Emergency": Driven by the needs of national ministries and commissions, combined with the characteristics of high reliability and high performance of "Pterodactyl", the company has actively explored the civilian scene of Pterodactyl around "Great Meteorology and Great Emergency", and has achieved remarkable results. By the end of 24, "Pterodactyl" will be deployed in nearly 10 provinces on a regular basis, forming a 3-hour emergency response circle in major regions across the country, effectively responding to various types of emergency situations, and further enhancing the country's comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. 2) Low-altitude economy: Since February 2021, when the low-altitude economy was written into the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline", the company has carried out research and application practice from the airport airspace and the civil UAV industry chain, two key aspects of low-altitude economic development.

Profit forecast: As the company's performance is under pressure due to the pace of delivery and market demand, the performance forecast is lowered, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -0.54/2.26/341 million yuan in 2024/2025/2026, corresponding to a valuation of 114/75 times in 25/26.

Risk warning: product orders are lower than expected, and product delivery progress is lower than expected.

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