Investment highlights

Event: The company released the 2024 performance forecast, which is expected to have a net profit attributable to the parent of 0.8-120 million, and a net profit loss of 7.5-1.05 billion after deducting non-attributable to the parent company; It is estimated that the net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 24Q4 will be 1.09-1.13 billion, and the net profit loss attributable to the parent company will be 1.23-1.53 billion.

Shipments ranked firmly in Longyi, and the domestic proportion in Q4 increased. We expect the company to ship about 93GW of modules in 24 years and 25GW in 24Q4, a year-on-year increase of about 5%, and N-type will account for about 95%+. Q4 The proportion of domestic rush to install increased, and the US shipment fell month-on-month; Delivery prices continued to decline, and it is estimated that the net profit loss of non-unit watts in Q4 was under pressure.

N-type technology remains at the forefront and GDR continues to advance. The mass production efficiency of the company's TOPCon cells can reach 26.5% by the end of 24 years, and the average annual efficiency is expected to increase by 0.5% to 28% in the next three years. N-type 3.0 modules are expected to be gradually introduced to the market in 25 years, with a module wattage of 670W, maintaining technological leadership. The company's overseas GDR continues to advance, which will be used for 1GW high-efficiency modules in the United States, the construction of the second phase of the Shanxi base and repayment. It is expected to strengthen the layout of overseas production capacity and continue to enhance competitiveness.

Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating: Considering that module prices are not recovering as expected, we have lowered our net profit attributable to the parent company in 24-26 to RMB1.0/40.8/6.06 billion yuan (previous value of RMB7.84/40.80/6.061 billion yuan), -99%/+3978%/+48% YoY.

Risk warning: the policy is less than expected, the competition is intensifying, etc