After experiencing the double test of global industrial chain fluctuations and market competition, China's semiconductor industry has shown a strong momentum of development. This week, a number of domestic semiconductor companies have announced their 2024 performance forecast 688012 s. SH), NAURA (002371. SZ), Shengmei Shanghai (688082. SH) The performance of these leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers is particularly bright, among them, the revenue of micro companies has increased by more than 40%.

This is related to the recovery of the semiconductor market last year and the intensification of the tide of domestic substitution of chips. Industry insiders pointed out that China's semiconductor industry is "stuck", which will prompt the industry to have more options to ensure the security of the semiconductor supply chain, but this does not mean that it is necessary to interrupt technical exchanges with foreign countries, but should deepen cooperation and make breakthroughs in root technology.

The performance maintained rapid growth

In terms of revenue, AMEC has maintained its growth trend in recent years. The company expects an operating income of about 9.065 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 44.73%. Among them, the sales of etching equipment in 2024 will be about 7.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 54.71%; MOCVD equipment sales were about 379 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 18.11%; LPCVD film equipment will achieve the first sales in 2024, with annual equipment sales of about 156 million yuan.

Looking through the financial reports of the past few years, the reporter noticed that since its listing in 2019, the annual revenue growth rate of AMEC has reached double digits, and the revenue growth from 2019 to 2023 is 18.77%, 16.76%, 36.72%, 52.5% and 32.15% respectively.

At the product level, AMEC said that the company's etching equipment and thin film equipment in 2024 will continue to be recognized by many customers, and the new shipments and sales of high-end products for key processes in chip manufacturing will increase significantly; In the past two years, a number of new equipment products have entered the market and obtained repeat orders. The EPI equipment has successfully entered the mass production verification stage of the client.

In terms of production capacity, AMEC's production and R&D base of about 140,000 square meters in Nanchang and about 180,000 square meters of production and R&D base in Lingang, Shanghai have been put into use, supporting the rapid growth of the company's product delivery and sales. At the same time, the company continued to develop key component suppliers to promote a stable and secure supply chain, and the equipment delivery rate remained at a high level, and the timely delivery of equipment also provided strong support for its sales growth.

Compared with revenue, the performance of AMEC in terms of profits is somewhat poor. The company expects net profit attributable to owners of the parent company to be 1.5 billion yuan to 1.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of about 16.01% to 4.81% compared to the same period last year. From 2019 to 2023, the increase in net profit attributable to the parent company was 107.51%, 161.02%, 105.49%, 15.66% and 52.67% respectively.

AMEC explained that this is due to the sharp increase in market and customer demand for the development of a variety of new devices, and the company will significantly increase its R&D efforts in 2024. The company's R&D investment in 2024 will be 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 94.13% over 2023, and the proportion of R&D investment in the company's operating income will be about 27.03%.

On the other hand, in 2023, AMEC sold part of the shares of Tuojing Technology Co., Ltd., generating a net income after tax of about 406 million yuan, while the company did not have such equity disposal gain in 2024. Aside from this factor, AMEC will still be profitable in 2024.

There are still disadvantages in the face of market opportunities

In recent days, North Huachuang and Shengmei Shanghai, which are also semiconductor equipment manufacturers, have also announced their 2024 performance forecasts, which have also reaped a bumper year.

Among them, NAURA will have a revenue of 27.6 billion yuan to 31.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%-43.93%, and a net profit attributable to listed companies of 5.17 billion yuan to 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%-52.6%; In 2024, Shengmei Shanghai will achieve revenue of 5.6 billion yuan to 5.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.02%-51.22%.

"The global semiconductor industry continues to recover, especially the strong market demand in Chinese mainland." Shengmei Shanghai mentioned in the announcement. According to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization, the total size of the global semiconductor market will rise to $611.2 billion in 2024, and looking forward to 2025, the global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 12.5%, with a valuation of $687 billion.

More importantly, under the background of industry recovery, the proportion of Chinese mainland's semiconductor equipment market in the world has increased year by year: according to SEMI's statistical report, Chinese mainland will become the world's largest integrated circuit equipment market in 2023, accounting for 35%; According to Gartner data, from 2018 to 2025, there will be a total of 171 new production lines in the global chip production line construction project, of which 74 are located in Chinese mainland, accounting for up to 43% of the regional total.

This is inseparable from the tide of domestic substitution of chips caused by the "stuck neck" of Chinese semiconductors in recent years. During this period, the United States continued to increase the export control of AI chips in Chinese mainland, and the reporter of "China Times" interviewed the company on whether the relevant ban has affected the company's business and customers, but did not receive a reply as of press time.

"The semiconductor industry is continuously restricted, and there is actually a great opportunity for enterprises related to the domestic semiconductor supply chain, which means that the huge domestic commercial market will increase the demand for China's semiconductor supply chain unprecedentedly, and the growth of commercial revenue will lead to a continuous increase in R&D investment, thereby driving the acceleration of technology iteration of domestic semiconductor companies, which will enable this type of company to achieve a positive cycle of business and technology." Yuan Bo, an expert and senior engineer of the elite think tank, told the China Times.

Because of this, AMEC is still filling its "ammunition depot". Recently, the company announced that it plans to invest in the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, China Micro Semiconductor Equipment (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., in Chengdu High-tech Zone, to build a R&D and production base and southwest headquarters project, mainly for high-end logic and memory chips, to carry out the research and development and production of chemical vapor deposition equipment, atomic layer deposition equipment and other key equipment, between 2025 and 2030, the total investment of the project is about 3.05 billion yuan.

Of course, domestic semiconductors also need to recognize their disadvantages in opportunities. AMEC pointed out that there is still a certain gap between domestic equipment and foreign equipment in terms of categories, performance and large-scale mass production capacity of semiconductor equipment.

Yuan Bo also reminded that the bottleneck of China's semiconductor industry is not only the bottleneck of products, but also the future of China's semiconductors in the basic root technology, which is a more important potential risk for Chinese semiconductor companies, and China's semiconductor companies should work closely with the scientific community at home and abroad to make breakthroughs in root technology, and quickly promote the iteration of their own technologies with the vigorous development of the commercial market.