· A-share closing comments: The GEM index opened low and fell 1.82%, and the Xiaohongshu concept stocks continued to rise sharply On January 15, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index led the decline. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.82%. The full-day turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. On the disk, the hot spots are more chaotic, individual stocks fall more and rise less, and more than 3,500 stocks in the whole market fall. From the perspective of the sector, Xiaohongshu concept stocks continued to rise sharply, and many stocks such as One Network and One Creation rose to the limit.

Cambrian announced its 2024 performance forecast, and the fourth quarter is expected to turn around in a single quarter On the evening of January 14, Cambrian (688256. SH) released its 2024 annual performance forecast, which is expected to achieve operating income of 1.07 billion yuan to 1.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.83% to 69.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to lose 396 million yuan to 484 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.95% to 53.33%; The non-net profit attributable to the parent is expected to lose 765 million yuan to 935 million yuan, and the loss will narrow by 10.34% to 26.64%. Cambrian's net loss in the third quarter of 2024 is 194 million yuan, according to which the company's net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be 240 million yuan to 328 million yuan, which is expected to turn around in a single quarter. According to public information, Cambrian was founded in 2016 and listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in July 2020, and has not yet achieved profitability.

Zhou Hongyi's acting addiction: the first AI short drama was filmed, and the content was through the theme According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, on January 13, Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360 Group, participated in the filming and starred in a short drama that was started in Xi'an and is scheduled to be launched during the Spring Festival. According to Zhou Hongyi, the number of episodes of the short drama he participated in this time is about 60 episodes, and the content is a time travel theme. He said that he hopes to make the short drama the first "AI short drama" in China. "Many special effects in the play will be generated by the picture video function of nano AI search, which can not only greatly save shooting costs, but also far exceed the so-called Wumao special effects."

The total assets of China Merchants Bank exceeded 12 trillion yuan, and the net profit increased by 1.22% on the evening of January 14, China Merchants Bank ((600036.SH) released a performance report, and "turned losses into profits" throughout the year. In 2024, China Merchants Bank will achieve operating income of 337.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.586 billion yuan, or 0.47%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the bank was 148.391 billion yuan, an increase of 1.789 billion yuan or 1.22% year-on-year.

Little Red Book, go to sea overnight

Although Xiaohongshu has attracted some American users, the content format and positioning of the platform are still quite different from TikTok. For example, in terms of functional positioning, TikTok focuses on creating entertainment attributes, and with the two weapons of short videos and live broadcasts, it has attracted many young users to devote themselves to it, satisfying their strong desire for novel ideas and shocking visual experiences. Xiaohongshu, on the other hand, focuses on social interaction, content sharing, and especially all-round sharing of lifestyles, providing guidance for users' consumption decisions, and its main audience is young women. In terms of content form, TikTok takes short videos as the absolute core, and spares no effort to strengthen entertainment and visual appeal. Xiaohongshu uses graphic notes as the main content carrier, and appropriately integrates short video elements, which makes its content richer and more diverse, focusing on the sharing of life bits and pieces and shopping recommendations, and the attribute of "planting grass" is stronger. So why is it Xiaohongshu that undertakes this wave of traffic?

The explosive AI companion toy, is it okay?

When AI has become the latest "traffic password" in all walks of life, the toy industry has also taken the opportunity to take advantage of this spring breeze, and many companies have deployed AI to accompany the field of toys. From LOVOT, the home companion robot of the Japanese robotics company GROOVE X, to the AIGC toy pendant BubblePal of the start-up Haivivi, to the AI pet Moflin developed by Casio in collaboration with Vanguard Industries, the AI companion doll conspicuous bag created by ByteDance based on the bean bag model, and Tesla's robot toy Tesla Bot Action Figure...... These AI companion toys in various forms have achieved surprising results since they were launched. The official price of BubblePal is 449 yuan, and the GMV of the first month of sale exceeded 4 million; Tesla's Tesla Bot Action Figure is officially priced at $40 and was sold out in less than 24 hours after it went live on the official store. Such a popular effect has made the public gradually realize that seemingly inconspicuous toys may be the most potential direction in the AI to C track. Is that really the case?

Hong Kong stocks ushered in a strong counteroffensive, four bullish reasons, why did institutions flock in?

The continuous downturn in the Hong Kong and A markets simultaneously pulled up and counterattacked on January 14, and the market sentiment rebounded significantly. Analysts believe that there are four main reasons for the strength of the market: First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said last night that it will strengthen the monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, over-the-counter, and spot linkages, and enhance the forward-looking, proactive and effective work. Together with the People's Bank of China, we will give better play to the effectiveness of the two structural monetary policy tools, strengthen strategic force reserves and the construction of market stabilization mechanisms. Strengthen policy interpretation and publicity and guidance, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and further stabilize market expectations; Second, the RMB exchange rate has continued to weaken recently, but the regulatory level has also continued to regulate, such as raising the macro-prudential adjustment parameters of cross-border financing yesterday and issuing offshore central bills; Third, the recent regulation and control of the treasury bond market is also increasing, today's 30-year treasury bond futures fell significantly, and the yield of major interbank interest rate bonds generally rose at the beginning of the session; Fourth, foreign investors suddenly turned around and were optimistic about China's stock market.

In 2025, the Fed will be more hawkish and may constrain interest rate cuts

The Fed will have a slightly more hawkish vote in 2025 than in 2024. St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas Fed President Schmid, among the most hawkish members, will receive voting rights. At a time when the Fed's focus of decision-making may be refocused on inflation due to Trump's return, the exact extent of the shift will become even more important when the overall stance turns hawkish. These shifts increase the risk of meeting dissent, which could be a barrier to further rate cuts by the Fed. The Fed had reason to keep interest rates unchanged in January to wait for inflation to fall further and assess the impact of Trump's inauguration. Domestic interbank US dollar funds are relatively loose, and financing enthusiasm has rebounded. The year-on-year growth rate of foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions further declined, continuing to stay away from the threshold of RMB exchange rate appreciation. The offshore dollar interest rate spread converged after a year-end jump. Judging from the use of the Fed's liquidity tools, the dollar tension is relatively manageable. The recent retracement of U.S. equities has converged in the direction of tightening dollar liquidity.

December 2024 Financial Data Review: The replacement of hidden debts accelerated at the end of the year, pushing up new social financing while depressing new credit

On January 14, 2025, data released by the central bank showed that new RMB loans in December 2024 were 990 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion; The scale of new social financing in December was 2,857.5 billion yuan, an increase of 924.9 billion yuan year-on-year. On the whole, the large-scale hidden debt swap at the end of the year had a significant impact on financial data, which was manifested in the reduction of new credit and the increase of new social financing. Looking forward to 2025, in the context of the monetary policy tone turning to "moderate easing", the weakening of the financial "crowding" effect, and the current regulator is emphasizing the "guidance of financial institutions to increase monetary and credit delivery", the annual new credit and social finance are expected to recover year-on-year growth, and it is more likely to achieve a "good start" in financial data in January. We judge that the central bank will implement a strong interest rate cut in 2025 with a view to effectively responding to external shocks, promoting the domestic real estate market to stop falling and stabilizing, and vigorously boosting domestic demand.