According to a research report released by GF Securities, according to Goldwind's performance display materials, in the first three quarters of 2024, a total of 119.1GW of domestic wind turbines were tendered, a year-on-year increase of 93%, of which 111.5GW was tendered for land wind, a year-on-year increase of 101%, and 7.6GW for sea wind, a year-on-year increase of 25%; According to the push of Fengmang Energy's official account on January 11, according to CWEA's forecast, the annual installed capacity of China's wind power in 2025 will be about 105-115GW, of which the new scale of onshore will be about 95-100GW, and the new scale of offshore will be about 10-15GW.

The sustainability of offshore wind power is expected to exceed expectations, and overseas orders from domestic machine manufacturers have increased significantly

According to the push of Fengmang Energy's official account on January 9, the "List of Major Projects in Jiangsu Province in 2025" includes Yancheng Guoxin Offshore Wind Power, Yancheng Three Gorges Offshore Wind Power, Yancheng Longyuan Offshore Wind Power, etc.; According to the push of Fengmang Energy's official account on January 11, the "2025 List of Major Projects in Shandong Province" includes a total of 3 offshore wind power projects, 9 onshore wind power projects and 2 wind power industry chain manufacturing related projects, considering the second batch of 7.65GW of Jiangsu Province, 21.5GW of offshore wind power distribution in Guangdong Province (7GW of provincial sea area), 2.4GW of offshore wind power distribution in Fujian Province and potential deep-sea demonstration projects, and reserve projects to ensure the continuity of offshore wind power. According to the statistics of the daily wind power official account, a total of eight OEMs in the overseas market will receive overseas orders in 2024, with a total of 28.06GW of international orders, a significant increase.

Pay attention to the profit recovery brought by the background of high installations

According to the statistics of GF Securities, in recent years, the wind power industry chain has carried out large-scale capital expenditure, corresponding to a sharp decline in the return on assets, the ROE and ROA of the entire industry are basically in 2020-2021 after reaching the highest point after the rush to install all the way down, and the entire industry has obviously entered the downward period of capital expenditure in 24 years, revitalizing stock assets and improving the yield of stock assets is the top priority for each company.

Investment advice

Pay attention to the offshore wind power industry chain. Pay attention to the offshore tower/pile foundation leader Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), take root in Jiangsu, and gradually expand to the whole country in Shandong, Hainan and other key layouts. Emphasis on strong alpha companies. Recommend Sany Renewable Energy (688349.SH) with a significant increase in market share, the company's cost advantage is obvious, and it is gradually expanding to offshore and overseas; It is recommended that the leading wind power aerial work Zhongji United (605305.SH), which has a leading market share in this field, and product upgrading and improvement can better fight against "deflation" and maintain a high growth rate in exports. Pay attention to Times New Materials (600458.SH), Xinqianglian (300850.SZ), Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Jinlei (300443.SZ), etc.

Risk Warning

The installed capacity is less than expected, the policy promotion is less than expected, the profit repair is less than expected, and the overseas market development is less than expected.