When forecasting market opportunities in the wind power industry in 2025, almost all major brokerage institutions will mention overseas markets.

The "Wind Power 2025 Strategy" report released by Guojin Securities a few days ago believes that "the high increase in bidding volume guides the definitive growth of offshore and onshore wind installations in 2025, and domestic and overseas demand resonates." "In 2025, the new installed capacity of domestic wind power is expected to reach 110GW to 120GW, and there is strong certainty that offshore wind power will achieve high growth, and overseas markets are showing an upward trend," CICC pointed out in a recent research report. Huatai Securities said: "Overseas multiple positive resonance, wind power installed capacity is expected to continue to grow." ”

At present, wind turbines have become an important growth driver for China's green energy product exports. On January 13, Lv Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, introduced at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's exports of wind power turbines in 2024 will increase by 71.90% year-on-year.

The strong expansion of wind power to the sea is supported by the perfect industrial chain and supply chain of China's wind power industry.

However, it should be pointed out that the prevention of "involution" and changes in overseas market policies are still risks that Chinese wind power companies need to face after going abroad.

Venture companies overseas have achieved fruitful results

According to the statistics of market institutions, since 2023, the scale of overseas orders taken by domestic wind power enterprises is experiencing leapfrog growth. Among them, the new overseas orders in 2024 are expected to reach 3.3 times the export volume of domestic wind turbines for the whole year.

The above data shows that overseas markets have become the main incremental markets for Chinese wind power enterprises. The recent survey information disclosed by A-share wind power companies also reflects that many companies have gained a lot in overseas markets in 2024.

On January 10, 2025, Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772. SZ) introduced in an institutional survey: "The company has obtained orders in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, South America and other regions, and in 2024, the company will achieve breakthroughs in the Middle East and other markets, and has obtained some wind power project orders." At the same time, the company has started cooperation with large foreign energy groups, and will accelerate the global strategic layout in the future, increase the development of new overseas owners, and increase the scale of overseas orders. ”

In December 2024, Mingyang Intelligent (601615. SH) disclosed on the exchange's interactive platform: "In the first three quarters of 2024, the company added more than 2GW of new overseas orders, and the company will continue to deploy overseas markets in the future." ”

Sany Renewable Energy (688349. SH) also replied to investors' questions that month, pointing out that in overseas markets, the company has signed sales contracts for a total of 1,624MW of wind turbines with three subsidiaries of JSW Group and Sembcorp Group's Indian subsidiary in 2024, and "there are still many projects under negotiation in India". It has cooperated with Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund to lay out an industrial base in Kazakhstan and obtained the right to develop GW-level greenfield projects in Uzbekistan. It is also actively involved in the European region and has launched two models developed for the European market during Wind Energy Hamburg 2024.

Based on the obvious increase in 2024, brokerages are more optimistic about the overseas market performance of domestic wind power companies in 2025.

On the whole, the overseas markets for Chinese wind power companies can be roughly divided into two categories: traditional markets dominated by European and American markets, and emerging markets represented by Asia, Africa and Latin America such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

"China's land breeze (onshore wind turbines) go to sea faster, sea breeze (offshore wind turbines) has just started, land breeze goes to sea in Asia (except China, the same below), Africa and the Middle East, and sea breeze is mainly in Asia and Europe." Guosheng Securities concluded that compared with foreign wind turbines, the price of domestic wind turbines is lower and the price competitive advantage is sufficient. "And the profitability of overseas wind turbines is generally better than that of the domestic market, so going overseas is expected to achieve an improvement in the profit structure."

According to the analysis of a number of brokerages, in 2025, the European sea breeze market and emerging markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to become an incremental source of Chinese wind power enterprises going overseas.

According

to CICC's analysis, the medium- and long-term installed capacity of overseas onshore wind power has grown steadily, and the incremental demand mainly comes from the Asian, African and Latin American regional markets, and the total new installed capacity of onshore wind power in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East is expected to basically match the onshore wind demand in the European market around 2027.

In addition, according to the forecast of Pacific Securities, the new installed capacity of sea wind in Europe is expected to increase from 4GW in 2023 to 28GW in 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 22%, which is expected to contribute to the main increase.

Policy risks remain severe

The industry summarizes the overseas path of Chinese wind power enterprises: one is to build production capacity overseas, and the other is to supply factories in China and products to the world.

"China's wind power has ushered in a huge opportunity for internationalization. We have the confidence and ability to go out. Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said at the "2025 China Wind Energy New Year Tea Party" that at present, the output value of all links in China's wind power industry chain accounts for more than 60% of the global market. By 2030, in the Asia-Pacific region, except for China, only India will be able to basically meet the construction demand of the onshore wind power industry chain, and the offshore wind power industry chain will not meet the local and regional construction needs. "Without China's industrial and supply chains, the rest of the world will basically not be able to achieve the planning goals."

In this context, the biggest risk facing China's wind power industry going overseas is undoubtedly the fluctuation of demand expectations.

In fact, since the beginning of 2025, there have been some uneasy factors in the European and American markets.

In early January, newly elected US President Donald Trump said publicly that he would seek to develop a policy of not building wind farms in his second term, which would threaten plans for multibillion-dollar wind power projects. Prior to this, forecast data released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance showed that the new installed wind power capacity in the United States is expected to reach 198GW from 2024 to 2035.

In addition, the risk of trade frictions will intensify, which will continue to intrude on Chinese wind power companies to go overseas.

On 9 January 2025, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued Announcement No. 3 of 2025, announcing the final conclusions of the investigation into trade and investment barriers conducted by the EU in its investigation of Chinese enterprises under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), and determined that the EU's practices constituted trade and investment barriers.

According to the survey, there are many unreasonable practices in the EU's FSR investigation against China, which restrict and hinder the entry of Chinese enterprises' products, services and investment into the EU market, and damage the competitiveness of Chinese related enterprises and their products in the EU market, resulting in direct and indirect economic losses for Chinese enterprises, of which the value of the bidding projects that were forced to abandon is about 7.6 billion yuan, and the value of other affected projects is more than 8 billion yuan.