Under the trend of "anti-involution", wind turbine prices will rebound in 2024, and the installed capacity and winning bids of wind power will hit a record high.

"It is estimated that in 2024, China's new grid-connected installed capacity of wind power will be about 88 million kilowatts." A few days ago, Qin Haiyan, secretary general of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said at the 2025 China Wind Energy New Year Tea Party that by the end of 2024, the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity of domestic wind power will be about 530 million kilowatts, and the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity of wind power will account for more than 15% of the power supply structure.

Qin Haiyan said that since the "rush to install" in 2019, the price of wind turbines in China has dropped sharply. Among them, the price of onshore wind turbines (excluding towers, the same below) will drop from 3,800 yuan/kW in 2019 to 1,400 yuan/kW in 2024, a decrease of about 62%; The price of offshore wind turbines dropped from 6,659 yuan/kW in 2019 to below 3,000 yuan/kW, a decrease of about 58%.

"In the last two months, onshore wind turbine prices have rebounded." Qin Haiyan said that the price increase may be due to the self-discipline convention signed at the 2024 Wind Energy Exhibition, or it may be caused by a sharp decline in the profits of wind turbine manufacturers. Judging from the data, the gross profit margin of wind power manufacturers in the third quarter of 2024 will be below 10%.

According to data from Huachuang Securities, in 2024, the average winning price of domestic onshore wind turbines will be 1,381 yuan/kW, and the average winning price of offshore wind turbines will be 2,748 yuan/kW.

Great Wall Securities said in the research report that the price of wind power broke the "involution", the large-scale onshore wind turbine slowed down, and China's wind power industry gradually returned to rationality. In November last year, the State Power Investment Group opened bids for the second batch of large-scale procurement projects of onshore wind turbines in 2024, and the quotations of the whole turbine enterprises participating in the bidding were higher than the historical level.

In 2024, the scale of bidding and the number of winning bids in the domestic wind power industry will also increase significantly.

According to statistics from Huachuang Securities, the domestic wind power bidding volume will reach 123GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 91%. Among them, 114.1GW of onshore wind power was tendered, a year-on-year increase of 109.2%; Offshore wind power tenders were 8.7GW, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, and the decline was narrower than that of the previous year.

According to incomplete statistics of daily wind power, in 2024, the cumulative number of bids won by domestic wind power manufacturers will be 220.644GW (including international projects, excluding centralized procurement framework bidding), an increase of about 90% year-on-year, a record high. Among them, Envision Energy, Goldwind Technology (002202), Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772), Mingyang Intelligent (601615), and Sany Renewable Energy (688349) ranked among the top five in terms of bid-winning capacity.

At the same time, the pace of domestic wind turbine manufacturers entering the international market is also accelerating. According to incomplete statistics from Fengmang Energy, in 2024, 7 domestic OEMs will receive international orders, and a total of 34.3GW of bids will be won in the international market, a year-on-year increase of 345.45%.

The performance of many leading domestic wind power manufacturers began to pick up last year.

In the first three quarters of 2024, Goldwind Technology (002202) achieved revenue of 35.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%; net profit was 1.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%; Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772) achieved revenue of 13.929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%; net profit was 267 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%; Sany Renewable Energy (688349) achieved revenue of 9.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%; net profit was 685 million yuan, down 33.35% year-on-year.

It is worth noting that Mingyang Intelligent (601615) increased revenue and profit in the first half of last year, but its performance in the third quarter declined, of which net profit fell by 74.57% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2024, Mingyang Intelligent achieved revenue of 20.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%; net profit was 808 million yuan, down 34.58% year-on-year.

Qin Haiyan predicts that in 2025, China's new installed wind power capacity will reach 105 million kilowatts to 115 million kilowatts, of which onshore wind power will reach 95 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts, and offshore wind power will reach 10 million kilowatts to 15 million kilowatts.

According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the global installed capacity of wind power will grow from 133GW to 188GW from 2024 to 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of about 10%.