Finance Associated Press, December 29 (Reporter Wu Chao) The price war is intensifying, the homogenization of products is serious, and the growth rate of downstream demand is slowing down...... This year, China's industrial robot market was under pressure in fierce competition.

Reflected in the performance of mainstream companies, it has become a common phenomenon to increase revenue without increasing profits. According to MIR Rui Industrial data, in the first three quarters of this year, among the domestic industrial robot manufacturers, the top four shipments were Eston (002747. SZ), Inovance Technology (300124. SZ), Efort (688165. SH), Xinshida (002527. SZ）。 Except for Inovance, the net profit of the other three companies in the first three quarters all fell year-on-year. However, the industry is also exploring a breakthrough path, from policy dividends to technological innovation, from domestic substitution to product upgrading, leaving hope for the future.

The downstream boom dragged manufacturers into a price war

The latest data disclosed by GGII predicts that China's industrial robot sales will be about 300,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year decline of about 5%.

At the price level, GGII data shows that the average price of six-axis and above collaborative robot products in the Chinese market in 2023 will be 97,300 yuan, and the price of six-axis robots with a 6-kilogram load will reach more than 20,000 yuan in 2024.

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press saw on the Alibaba procurement platform that even the quotation of some brands of six-axis robots has fallen below 10,000 yuan.

Estun told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the company's shipments of industrial robot products have maintained growth this year, but the unfavorable factors in the industry are: "On the one hand, the prosperity of downstream photovoltaic and lithium battery customers is not good, and the requirements for cost control are higher, and the profits obtained from these fields have decreased; On the other hand, the demand side is closely related to the overall cycle fluctuations of the manufacturing industry, and there is an influx of competitors on the supply side, resulting in lower product prices. ”

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press paid attention to the fact that in recent years, the key downstream industries that support the continuous expansion of the industrial robot market, such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles, have encountered a price decline this year, which has put greater pressure on the product pricing of industrial robot manufacturers.

According to Wind data, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen from 567,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022, and in 2024, it will not only fall below the reference cost price of 80,000 yuan/ton, but also hovered around the 70,000 yuan/ton mark for a time.

According to the data of the Photovoltaic Association, since the beginning of 2024, the average trading price of photovoltaic silicon materials has fallen by 37.29%, and the price of silicon wafers has been "cut in half", the price of P-type cells has fallen by more than 20%, the price of N-type cells has fallen by 41.49%, and the prices of various module products have also fallen by nearly 30%.

Inovance Technology Company told the Financial Associated Press reporter that thanks to the accumulation of customer base in multiple industries, the company's industrial robot business still achieved good growth. The company's gross profit margin declined this year, mainly due to the new development of a large number of new energy vehicle business, "although the new energy vehicle industry has broad development prospects, but because the industrial pattern of the industry has not yet been finalized, the market competition is very fierce, the gross profit margin of products is generally low, and the proportion of this part of the revenue has increased rapidly, resulting in the company's comprehensive gross profit margin is downward year-on-year." ”

In a recent public speech, You Wei, chairman of EFORT, summarized the development process of the robot track as: rushing up, excessive involution, chicken feathers in one place, the leftover is king, standardized order, and healthy development. Due to the lack of clear judgment of "good and bad products" by end customers, price has become the main means of competition.

Enterprise survey data shows that in the past ten years, the number of robot-related enterprises in China has increased year by year, and in 2021, it exceeded 100,000 for the first time, and the annual registration volume increased by 53.3% year-on-year to 131,200, and in 2023, the registration number of robot-related enterprises in China exceeded 150,000 for the first time, and the annual registration volume increased by 28.8% year-on-year to 180,000, setting a new high in the past ten years. In the first 11 months of 2024, 167,900 robot-related enterprises were registered in China, which has exceeded the same period in 2023.

At the end of the year, the dawn is beginning to appear, and next year may be able to pick up

Despite the fierce competition throughout the year, the gradual recovery of the market and the implementation of policies at the end of 2024 have begun to bring positive changes to the industry.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, with the steady improvement of industrial production, the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has rebounded for three consecutive months, and the output of industrial robots in November was 53,581 sets, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%.

"From the fourth quarter, there are some good phenomena. It can be felt that thanks to the national subsidy policy, the home appliance industry has recovered very rapidly, and orders from home appliance companies have increased. At the same time, subsidies such as large-scale equipment renewal and consumption trade-in are also being implemented. For example, demand from traditional general-purpose industries such as packaging and printing is also recovering. In addition, this year's shipbuilding industry is relatively hot, we are focusing on the shipbuilding scene, there are already small batch orders this year, and there will be more opportunities next year. A person from Estun told reporters.

The person believes: "As the national policy will enter a greater period of fulfillment, as well as the trend of superimposed domestic substitution, I think the industrial robot industry has a better expectation next year." ”

Inovance Technology Company told reporters that the company's products in the past were mainly four-axis robots, and the products have matured, and the gross profit margin is relatively high in isolation. In recent years, the six-axis products have been added, and the research and development is still being continuously invested, and the scale also needs to run more to optimize the gross profit margin of the six-axis products. "In the future, with the scale effect, the gross profit margin should increase."

The photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries that have dragged down the profit margins of some companies this year have also stopped falling and rebounded.

Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated at about 73,000-78,000 yuan/ton during the fourth quarter; In addition, before the end of the year, photovoltaic-related official organizations and institutions frequently held closed-door forums on topics such as industry self-discipline and production and price limits.

There are also many companies that have mentioned that there has been a delay in order confirmation this year. The market is looking forward to the harvest node, and there may be a relatively large increase.

EFORT said at the performance briefing that the company's operating income in the first three quarters fell year-on-year, which was affected by the dual impact of intensified market competition and changes in product structure brought about by changes in market demand, as well as the postponement of investment plans for overseas automobile OEMs and the postponement of the implementation of projects in hand.

Huazhong CNC company told reporters that the company's industrial robot and intelligent production line business has undertaken a large number of overseas orders this year, and the gross profit of overseas orders is higher than that of domestic orders, but there is a problem of a long cycle. "The time for assembly in a domestic plant, and then from sea transportation to commissioning and installation at the customer's site is much longer than that of domestic projects. Therefore, many projects in the first three quarters did not reach the threshold of revenue recognition, and will be recognized later. ”

Domestic substitution accelerates the optimization of product structure

For a long time in the past, the "four families" (ABB in Switzerland, Kuka in Germany, Fanuc and Yaskawa Electric in Japan) firmly occupied more than 50% of the market share of China's industrial robot market. However, in recent years, the market share of domestic industrial robots has continued to increase, and this year it still maintains this trend.

In the first three quarters of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic manufacturers reached 21.1%, far higher than the overall market level; The market share was 51.6%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a new record high. There are 4 Chinese companies in the top 10 of the industry.

Guo Tao, an angel investor and senior artificial intelligence expert, told reporters that local brands have seized the share of the four major families in China's industrial robot market, mainly due to the fact that local industrial robot companies have squeezed the share of the four families in the low-end market with cost-effective products and fast-responding local services. In addition, the support of relevant national industrial policies, such as subsidies for local enterprises, has also enhanced the competitiveness of local enterprises.

According to Estun, the company's industrial robot products have covered most of the application scenarios of foreign brands, and the gap in speed, precision, stability and other aspects has been narrowed. "We hope to benchmark foreign capital and grab the market of foreign brands."

Inovance Technology Co., Ltd. said that as a local brand, the company has a good competitive advantage in coping with the competition with foreign brands, in terms of customized solutions, localized rapid response, and increased determination of customers to promote the localization of core components, and can maintain strong stickiness with customers.

It is worth noting that the head industrial robot manufacturers will focus on more sophisticated, more threshold and more value-added products in the product structure planning. At present, many domestic manufacturers such as Xinshida, Inovance Technology, Estun, and Efort have penetrated into the field of medium and large robots after making achievements in the field of small robots, competing for the market share of six-axis robots and other products with a load of more than 100kg.

"High-end application scenarios, which require multi-joint, heavy-load, and high-precision robots, are what Eston has been continuously developing. This year, in the field of large-load products, the company has broken through the technical barriers of some products, including the country's first 700-kilogram load robot, which is currently developing a one-ton robot, which may be launched next year. Estun said.

Guo Tao believes that the robot industry has entered a stage of rapid development and will continue to maintain a strong growth momentum in the future. With the continuous advancement of technology, the application scenarios of robots are becoming more and more abundant, expanding from traditional manufacturing to services, medical and other fields. Therefore, the market demand for high-end industrial robots will continue to increase. At the same time, the cost of high-end industrial robots is gradually decreasing, which will also provide more opportunities for its market promotion.