[Dissecting the large plate].

U.S. stocks did not improve overnight as the government was still in danger of a shutdown. The offshore yuan once rose more than 200 points to regain 7.31, and the latest reached 7.30. Hong Kong stocks were generally stable today, closing slightly down 0.16%.

On Thursday (December 19), local time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the International Capital Flows Report (TIC) for October 2024. According to the report, the size of US Treasuries held by foreign investors in October ended five consecutive months of growth. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries have further updated their lows since 2009. China's holdings of U.S. bonds decreased by $11.9 billion month-on-month in October, bringing the total holdings to $760.1 billion. This is also the fourth consecutive month that China has reduced its holdings of U.S. bonds.

Unlike in September, only China and Japan reduced their holdings among the top 10 overseas "creditors" in the United States, this time as many as seven "creditors" chose to reduce their holdings in October. However, this is the data for October, and I don't know what the current position is, and it is likely that it will not be optimistic, and this situation is expected to continue at least until after Trump officially takes office.

Because the United States is very troubled now is that the debt deficit is too large, and it has to issue more bonds every year to pay off the old with the new, and keep rolling. Anyway, it can't be stopped, and it's unlikely that it will be cashed out. Just wait for the final knockdown to start over or pick up the big wool. But the latter is no longer possible, and now there is not so much volume to hedge except for us. You can only do a little bit of piecemeal, and you can get a little bit of it.

Trump's trick is to cut spending. The other is to raise tariffs to get more money, including the latest requirement that Europe must buy oil and gas from the United States, otherwise it will have to use means, and there is also to raise protection fees. It's all the same style. Of course, the issuance of treasury bonds is the most important thing, and if we don't buy them anymore, then this cycle will be difficult to play, and this is the bargaining chip of the game.

Some people say that it is not impossible to start the money printing press directly without issuing treasury bonds. But if you do this, the dollar will not be able to hold up, and credit will collapse, which is also unbearable. Therefore, the United States also has a weakness, and if this problem is not solved well, the US stock market will not be much better. Otherwise, what Trump said the other day: "China and the United States together can solve all problems" is nonsense? First of all, it can alleviate the problem of US bond issuance.

The personal pension mentioned the day before yesterday has a follow-up, and CCB (00939) held the national launching ceremony of the "Pension China Tour" and the Shanghai station activity. Since 2022, CCB has started to comprehensively deploy and build the "1314" pension financial service system, and CCB has successfully launched the first batch of personal pension business among its peers, focusing on one-stop services, full-category investment and full-format services, continuously improving its "third pillar" service capabilities, providing personal pension services to more than 20 million customers, and the cumulative amount of personal pension account contributions has exceeded RMB 10 billion. This is just CCB, and it is roughly estimated that the total amount of personal pension should exceed 100 billion. However, it is estimated that there is not much left of this volume flowing into the stock market.

On Friday, December 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) on December 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.1%, 5-year LPR is 3.6%, both unchanged from the previous value, and the above LPR is valid until the next LPR is issued. This suggests that short-term interest rate cuts have failed.

Today's market is more popular is the WeChat store, which has officially opened the grayscale test of the "gift" function, except for jewelry, education and training categories, and the original price of the product style shall not be higher than 10,000 yuan, the product will support the "gift" function by default. This is a bit similar to the red envelope function, but it has been replaced with a gift.

For this function, the market's views are different, some are optimistic that this opens up the recommendation of good things between acquaintances and friends, it is indeed to open up another way of thinking, not optimistic that the other party may not like the other party, this way will be more embarrassing, it is better to send a red envelope to be real.

But in any case, what is more valuable is that snacks, beauty products, and fashion items are easy to spread among acquaintances, especially young people. Now that Christmas, New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching, the gift-giving function is expected to take advantage of the demand for holiday gift-giving to a wave of benefits. It is estimated that many small businesses may be willing to make this attempt. Therefore, the most beneficiary is such as Weimob Group (02013) as a platform, Weimob Mini Program is the first to access WeChat stores, supporting merchants to participate in the WeChat e-commerce ecosystem. This concept was also mentioned yesterday. It continues to rise by more than 25% today.

Oriental Selection (01797) has also become a hot spot. The official account recently released a message saying that the WeChat store has launched a new function of "sending gifts". Since the launch of its first self-operated product in April 2022, Dongfang Selection has developed and launched 488 SKU self-operated products in two years, thereby expanding the company's product line to more categories, which will indeed benefit.

Other varieties such as snacks, beverages, instant noodles, China Want Want (00151), Uni-President Enterprise (00220), etc., have all performed. According to this point of view, the fashionable Bubble Mart (09992) is also a very authentic concept, and the company should access the WeChat store as soon as possible. The general view of this subject matter is that it will definitely bring some increments, but how much effect it will have needs to be verified by further data, but it does not prevent the hype before it is not falsified.

The launch of this WeChat store is also good for Tencent (00700). According to Tencent's official WeChat account on December 20, Tencent and Honor officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Shenzhen recently. For four consecutive years, Honor's mobile phone shipments have ranked first in the world. In 2022, Tencent supported 100% migration of HONOR's mobile cloud services to the cloud, serving hundreds of millions of HONOR users. In the past three years, HONOR has been actively exploring overseas markets, and Tencent Cloud has simultaneously provided HONOR with global application performance optimization solutions. The cooperation with giants is a win-win situation, and Tencent (00700) continues to rise 2.7% today.

Another thing that is very hot is semiconductors. According to market rumors, the United States may issue a new AI export control update the day after tomorrow, which is reported to involve two aspects. The first is to implement licensing requirements for the foundry of 7nm chips. The second is to set global export restrictions for GPUs, which may only be purchased by VEU whitelisted companies in the future in non-ally countries.

There are two reasons why the market is more excited today: the first is that the Cambrian (688256.SH) of A-shares has hit a record high, and has become the second highest-priced stock in A-shares, second only to Kweichow Moutai, with an increase of more than 388% during the year, and it is a rare large-capitalization stock in China whose stock price has more than doubled - the increase "crushed" Nvidia and Broadcom, which proves that domestic chips have been recognized by the market.

On the other hand, today there is a small essay about SMIC (00981). I won't talk about the specifics, anyway, it's good for the acquisition, but it doesn't feel like it's true, so I won't talk about it here. In short, at the current point in time, the market believes that China's semiconductors are beginning to stand up, and the suspension of overseas production capacity for some Chinese mainland AI/GPU customers 7nm and below foundry business is certainly an opportunity for SMIC.

Looking at the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), the global chip equipment sales forecast for 2024 has been raised again, and it is estimated that the global chip equipment (new products) sales will increase by 6.5% to $113 billion in 2024, and the reason behind it is that Chinese mainland's investment in AI-related fields has exceeded expectations. Today, SMIC (00981) rose more than 8%. Other semiconductor-related products are rising.

After the Federal Reserve's "ultra-hawkish interest rate cut", Wall Street ushered in a new test - the largest "Three Witch Day" in history. About $6.5 trillion of options related to individual stocks, indices and exchange-traded funds will expire on Friday, according to the latest estimates from derivatives analyst firm Asym 500. Other agencies gave an even higher nominal value of $7.7 trillion, which would be the largest on record. In addition, tonight's release of the Fed's favorite inflation data, the core PCE price index, will bring more uncertainty to US stocks. The market is waiting to see this inflation data, if the data is low, there is hope for U.S. stocks, otherwise it will cause a big shock.

[Sector Focus].

According to Jintou.com, at 14:09 on December 20, 2024, the main weighted price of lithium carbonate was 76,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan or 1% from the previous day; The contract price of 2501 was 74,680 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, or 0.8%, from the previous day.

In 2024, the monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate will reach 64,140 tons as of November, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, and the cumulative output from January to November will be 606,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. On the demand side, from January to November, the domestic ternary material output was 624,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate materials was 2.058 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 74.8%.

In addition to new energy vehicles, the serious short-term demand for energy storage is also increasing, which brings new expectations for lithium carbonate. The main varieties in the Hong Kong stock market are: Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696).

[Individual stock nuggets].

Li Auto (02015): Sales in November increased year-on-year and intelligent driving made a breakthrough

The average price of Li Auto was 309,000 yuan, and the sales volume was 50,526 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%; Cumulative sales from January to November were 445,594 units, up 36.7% year-on-year. Li Auto sold 14,100 units last week. Li Auto announced today that it will hold a 30-minute "2024 Ideal AI Talk" at 8 p.m. every night for three consecutive days from December 25 to 27.

Comments: The company's sales in China's passenger car market of 200,000 yuan and above surpassed a number of mature European high-end brands for the first time, ranking among the top three among all brands and ranking first among all Chinese brands. According to the public performance meeting of the third quarterly report, the current production capacity of L6 cannot meet the demand for orders, and the factory will accelerate the expansion of production in the Spring Festival of 2025 to meet the demand for orders.

In terms of retail data, in terms of the extended range series, the average weekly sales of L6 in the first three weeks of November were about 6,000 units, and the average weekly sales of L7/8/9 were about 5,578 units. Pure electric products are basically stable, with an average weekly sales of about 197 units, and with the gradual accumulation of product reputation and the increasingly perfect layout of supercharging stations, subsequent sales are expected to break through.

Recently, Li Auto and the Aerospace Materials Institute of the Third Academy of Aerospace Science and Industry of China jointly established the "Advanced Thermal Insulation Materials Joint Laboratory" in Beijing. Breakthrough in intelligent driving: In October this year, the company released the OTA6.4 update of the Ideal MEGA and L series, realizing new and upgraded functions in intelligent driving, intelligent space and intelligent electric vehicles. The company has fully pushed a new intelligent driving solution that combines end-to-end (E2E) and visual language model (VLM) to more than 320,000 Ideal AD MAX owners.

In addition, Ideal continues to evolve to achieve more natural and anthropomorphic user interactions by upgrading the voice model and adding features such as eye tracking. The company's breakthrough in intelligent driving is expected to drive further growth in orders.