Recently, the stock market has been volatile, and global investors are focused on the upcoming "Three Witch Day", the largest option expiration date in history. According to statistics, the notional value of this maturity is as high as 6.5 trillion US dollars, and some institutions even expect it to reach 7.7 trillion US dollars, bringing unprecedented uncertainty to the market. Especially against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy and the upcoming key inflation data, the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market was stable, with a slight decrease of 0.16%.

The volatility of the U.S. economy has a direct impact on global markets. While U.S. stocks failed to improve overnight, Hong Kong stocks were sluggish and stable. The CNH performed relatively strongly, recovering 7.31 and most recently reaching 7.30, which partly shows that the market is paying attention to macroeconomic indicators and market liquidity risks.

According to the latest report on international capital flows, China's holdings of US Treasuries have been declining for four consecutive months, reaching $760.1 billion, the lowest since 2009. This suggests that global investor demand for U.S. Treasuries is under pressure, especially in the upcoming Trump era, and the administration may adopt more aggressive economic and fiscal policies. Against this backdrop, the future trend of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks is still full of uncertainties.

It is worth noting that the semiconductor industry has sprung up recently and has attracted much attention. Cambrian (688256. SH) has a strong performance in A-shares, rising by more than 388% during the year, becoming the second highest-priced stock, which marks the gradual recognition of the domestic chip market by the market. In addition, SMIC (00981) also achieved a rise of more than 8% due to the optimism of the market.

This series of semiconductor companies' gains is closely related to the upcoming AI export control strategy of the United States. The new policy will set licensing requirements for foundry of chips of 7nm and below, which makes domestic chip manufacturers usher in a new historical opportunity. With the intensification of global competition for technology, the development prospects of China's semiconductor industry are worth looking forward to.

At the same time, with the launch of the new function of WeChat Store "Send Gifts", related platform stocks in the market, such as Weimob Group (02013), were also popular among investors, and the stock price rose by more than 25% on the same day. This feature is expected to boost the e-commerce ecosystem of small businesses and drive the willingness of young people and consumers to spend, thereby having a positive impact on Weimob's performance.

If the perspective is expanded, judging from the recent market trends, the lithium carbonate field is also worthy of investors' attention. After experiencing a slight increase, lithium carbonate prices have once again attracted the full attention of the market. Production in November increased by 48.8% year-on-year, which boosted the significant rise of related stocks represented by Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696). With the expanding demand of the new energy vehicle industry, the market potential of lithium battery materials is also continuing to increase, and investors can pay close attention to the trends and trends of related stocks.

Although the overall market performance is stable, the situation between China and the United States and policy changes will have a profound impact on the long-term trend of the stock market. However, towards the end of the year, risks and opportunities coexist in the market. While grasping investment opportunities, investors must maintain risk awareness, remain sensitive to market trends and policy changes, allocate assets reasonably, and formulate a stop-loss strategy to cope with possible market shocks in the future.

Finally, the analysis in this article is for reference only, investment is risky, and it is recommended to make decisions according to your own situation.