Image source: Diagram Worm

Recently, the humanoid robot index (8841699. WI) closed for 8 consecutive days, becoming a hot plate leading the two cities. The reason why the humanoid robot sector has been recognized is that the market believes that 2025 will be the first year of mass production of humanoid robots, and the imminent mass production of Tesla robots and the recent entry of giants such as Huawei and Nvidia are catalysts.

Humanoid robot motor manufacturer Topstar (300607. SZ), sensor manufacturer Keli Sensing (603662. SH), lead screw manufacturer Beite Technology (603009. SH) and other robot parts branches have doubled their stock prices recently, but the equally important cable supplier known as the "blood vessels" of humanoid robots in the components Xin Hongye (301310. SZ) shares have not moved for a long time.

Why?

The growth rate of special cables exceeds that of other humanoid robot branches

Xin Hongye(301310.HK) SZ) is a high-quality enterprise of new energy special cables in China, the only flexible cable manufacturer in A-shares, and its main business is photovoltaic cables, new energy vehicle cables, industrial cables and other special cables, and it is an excellent supplier of new energy special cables in China. Xinhongye has established stable cooperative relations with well-known customers in various industries, and the position of special cables in the industry is relatively solid. In terms of traditional business, in the field of photovoltaic cables, Xinhongye and JinkoSolar (688223. SH), Canadian Solar (688472. SH) and other well-known photovoltaic module manufacturers to maintain good cooperative relations. In the field of new energy vehicles, Xinhongye and BYD (002594. SZ) and Tier 1 suppliers such as Geely Automobile, SAIC New Energy, and Xiaomi Automobile. In the field of energy storage cables, Xinhongye and Peneng Technology (688063. SH) and other energy storage customers, as well as BYD, CRRC (601766. SH) and other energy storage customer first-tier suppliers have formed a stable and long-term cooperation.

In the direction of innovative business, Xin Hongye has forward-looking layout of robot cables, which are the "blood vessels" in humanoid robots. On August 30, Xin Hongye announced that it had completed the establishment of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangsu Xinlian Intelligent Technology Research Co., Ltd. (the "Research Institute" referred to above), and planned to devote itself to the research and development of megawatt charging cables, liquid-cooled high-voltage cables in the car, signal cables for humanoid robots, high-voltage cables for low-altitude aerial vehicles and other products, which are mainly used in new productivity-related fields such as intelligent driving, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy. So far, Xin Hongye has officially stepped into the humanoid robot market. For Xin Hongye, which has experience in cable production in major industries, it is actually a pioneer in the field of humanoid robots.

The reason why the special cable of the robot can be called the blood vessels in the body of the robot is that the special cable can meet the needs of the robot to continuously provide stable power and signal transmission in the operating environment, which is similar to the blood vessels of the human body. As a key component in humanoid robots, the cost of robot cables accounts for 3%-5% of the total cost.

At present, robot cable brands are still dominated by Japan and Europe, accounting for 70%-80% of the global market share. Europe, the United States and Japan occupy the share of high-end robot cables, and there is no domestic enterprise that stands out, which is an opportunity for Xin Hongye to seize the alternative market. In addition, due to the frequent activity, twisting and movement of the robot, this will lead to a greatly shortened service life of the cable, and if it is not replaced for a long time, it will affect the signal transmission and cause problems such as command reception deviation. The replacement of robot cables has become a rigid need for the maintenance end of future robots, and the normal robot wiring harness replacement is once every six months, which has caused the demand for special cables for humanoid robots to increase significantly in the future. In the future, the growth rate of robot cables will be the increase of robots and the existing ownership, the larger the ownership, the greater the incremental demand in the future, and the growth rate is more than the overall growth rate of other components of humanoid robots.

As an important component of humanoid robots and a cable supplier with an increasing growth rate in the future, why does the stock price increase be much lower than that of other branches in the sector?

There are two main reasons for this

Special cables account for 3%-5% of the cost value of humanoid robots, and the latest estimate of the value of a single machine exceeds 5000, and the future demand will also increase significantly, but the market attention is not as good as other parts of the sector, and the stock price of Xin Hongye is also compared with other companies in the plate. Perhaps these are the points that the market is considering.

First of all, the competitiveness of European, American and Japanese companies cannot be compared with that in the short term. Although the value of a single humanoid robot is about 5,000 yuan, according to conservative estimates, there will be a demand for 2 million units in the global market in 2030, and there should be a market of 10 billion yuan. However, from the current market structure, foreign manufacturers occupy nearly 8% of the market share, and it is not easy to seize the market, so the current domestic manufacturers are still far away from competing for share. Xin Hongye is currently in a leading position in the field of flexible cables in China, in terms of domestic robot brands, Xin Hongye's cable products almost all appear in domestic robot brands, as for foreign robots There is still a way to go. In this year's company's telephone conference, Xin Hongye also revealed that it is in contact with well-known North American companies in the field of robot applications, but there is no definite information to be announced. Therefore, from the performance of the robot business to realize, Xin Hongye is relatively far away.

In addition, performance elasticity is relatively limited. Compared with the future performance expectations of other parts companies in the humanoid robot sector, Xinhongye is not enough to meet market expectations. As a cable company, the company's gross profit margin is maintained around 10% all year round, and the net profit is only about 5%. Since the industry's lower profit margins do not have enough room for performance imagination, this may be the point that the market is considering.

The latest Xinhongye third quarterly report also confirms this. In the first three quarters of this year, Xinhongye increased revenue but did not increase profits. While the operating income reached 1.736 billion yuan, an increase of 18.87% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 20.26% to 95.5517 million yuan. Profitability was weighed on by higher copper prices amid gains in all businesses. Perhaps this can also be a microcosm of the future humanoid robot business, and the increase in revenue does not fully guarantee the company's profit increase. In addition, Xinhongye's revenue accounts are larger, and the current accounts receivable account for 684.93% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, and the market's concerns about Xinhongye's future cash flow will also become one of the reasons for hindering the rise of its stock price.

Even though the humanoid robot industry can bring huge expectations to enterprises in the industrial chain, the specific practical problems faced by enterprises in various sub-sectors will still be taken into consideration.