Following the announcement of the preliminary anti-subsidy tariff in October this year, the U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced that it intends to impose anti-dumping duties of up to about 271% on photovoltaic products imported from Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia used to be the "bridgehead" for Chinese PV companies to export to the United States, and the main investors in local production capacity were also Chinese-funded enterprises. However, the Shell Finance reporter learned that domestic enterprises have expectations for the current tariff policy, and have responded through measures such as localized factory construction and capacity transfer.

"The market has also expected that the anti-circumvention preliminary tax rate will be significantly higher than the countervailing duty rate. After the landing of the double anti-dumping market, the advantages of the four Southeast Asian countries in the United States will be greatly weakened, but this is already in the preparation of Chinese photovoltaic companies. Wang Wenqi, a senior analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter.

In order to strengthen localization, a number of leading module companies have previously started to build factories in the United States. Shell Finance reporters paid attention to the fact that JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy's U.S. module production capacity has been announced to be put into production.

According to industry insiders, Southeast Asia will gradually shift from module exports to cell exports after tariffs are implemented in the future.

The anti-dumping duty rate is as high as 271%, and the leading enterprises say that the impact is generally controllable

According to Xinhuanet, the U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced that it intends to impose anti-dumping duties of up to about 271% on photovoltaic products in relevant countries.

According to the report, according to the preliminary ruling made by the U.S. Department of Commerce after investigation, the proposed anti-dumping duties involve crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and their modules imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, and the specific tax rate depends on different companies.

In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced initial tariffs on solar imports from Southeast Asia. According to the official website of the Ministry of Commerce, Cambodia's preliminary general tax rate will be 8.25%; Malaysia 9.13%; Thailand 23.06%; Vietnam 2.85%. Shell financial reporters learned that the tariff is a countervailing duty.

According to the aforementioned report, the final ruling of the U.S. Department of Commerce's trade investigation is expected to be released in April next year, and the U.S. International Trade Agency will make a ruling and announce the final policy in June next year.

Previously, on September 14, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a document saying that at present, the United States is building a protectionist courtyard wall, adopting multiple trade restrictions, and setting up photovoltaic tariff barriers layer by layer; On the other hand, through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Employment Act, it has implemented exclusive and discriminatory industrial policies and provided large-scale subsidies to its local PV industry suspected of violating multilateral rules, seriously distorting the market-oriented operation of the global PV industry chain and supply chain, and undermining international cooperation in the field of global joint response to climate change.

Shell financial reporters learned that at present, domestic enterprises basically have expectations for tariff increases. A first-tier module company told Shell Finance that the impact of the current preliminary tariff ruling on the company's production capacity and operation is generally controllable. "Enterprises will focus on doing their own jobs, strive to do a good job in products, and expand the market, and everyone is facing the same policy." Another leading enterprise told the Shell financial reporter.

"The market has also expected that the anti-circumvention preliminary tax rate will be significantly higher than the countervailing duty rate. After the landing of the double anti-dumping market, the advantages of the four Southeast Asian countries in the United States will be greatly weakened, but this is already in the preparation of Chinese photovoltaic companies. Wang Wenqi, a senior analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, told the Beijing News that most of the photovoltaic modules installed in the United States are manufactured overseas, and about 80% of the imported products come from the four Southeast Asian countries surveyed by the Ministry of Commerce. It is understood that since the end of the anti-dumping exemption window in June 2024, the module production capacity of Chinese companies in Southeast Asia has been preparing to shut down one after another. So far, most of the production capacity has come to a standstill, and only the components in stock are sold for sale.

The

leading module makers in the U.S. may start production within the year, while Southeast Asia may turn to cell exports

A number of industry insiders told the Shell financial reporter that photovoltaic cells made in Southeast Asia may still have the opportunity to continue to be exported to the United States in the future. Since the value of the further links in the industrial chain is, the lower the value, so even if a certain tax rate is levied, battery products still have a certain competitiveness.

According to the record of investor relations activities released by LONGi Green Energy at the end of November, it is expected that Southeast Asia's battery production capacity is expected to continue to enter the US market, considering the shortage of high-efficiency battery production capacity in the United States.

Wang Wenqi said that considering the supply gap and dependence of the United States on cells, Southeast Asia will gradually transition from module exports to cell exports in the future, and the shortage of domestic cells in the United States may remain for two to three years.

In order to ensure market share in the United States, Chinese photovoltaic companies have previously started to build factories in the United States. Shell Finance reporters paid attention to the fact that JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy's U.S. module production capacity has all been announced to be put into production.

Cartography/Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Zhu Yueyi

JinkoSolar (688223. SH) said at the previous third-quarter results briefing that the company is optimistic about the U.S. market demand for a long time, and generally maintains a shipment proportion of 5% to 10%. Looking forward to next year, the company will continue to take advantage of its products and production capacity in the U.S. market, and strive to improve its local market influence and supply capacity.

On the other hand, Indonesia and Laos, which are not currently included in the "double anti-dumping" investigation list, have quickly "filled" and become new hot spots for Chinese enterprises to build factories overseas. "Now these four countries (production capacity) will either go to Indonesia and Laos, or to the United States." An industry insider told the Shell financial reporter.

Trina Solar said at the earnings briefing in early November that the company has forward-looking layout of production capacity in Indonesia (not a country surveyed by the "anti-dumping and anti-dumping" survey) and the United States in 2023, both of which are expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2024, of which the Indonesian base is TOPCon cell production capacity. In addition, Trina Solar announced on November 6 that it has sold its core asset, Trina Solar US Manufacturing Module1, LLC, to FREYR Battery, Inc., a U.S.-listed company, with Trina Solar's 5GW module plant in the U.S. completed construction. The company said that all-round in-depth cooperation with local listed companies and relevant resources is conducive to reducing geopolitical risks and ensuring the supply of products made in the United States.