Guoyuan Securities released a research report saying that Tesla expects Robotaxi to be produced in 26 years and mass-produced in 27 years, and if 25Q1 is approved by China and Europe, Model3/Y will be the first to experience the driverless function, or it will have the possibility of becoming a driverless taxi. Other new energy vehicle manufacturers are following up with Robotaxi, which is expected to drive demand for electronic components, such as in-vehicle cameras, memory chips, wireless charging modules, SoCs, smart cockpits and PCBs.

The main views of Guoyuan Securities are as follows:

In-Vehicle Camera (CIS).

The improvement of autonomous driving level has driven the demand for in-vehicle cameras, which in turn has further driven the demand for CIS. The main increment of the camera comes from the front view, and it tends to be polynocular and high-pixelated. Binocular and trinocular have gradually become the mainstream due to higher accuracy, and 8MCIS has better data capture capabilities than 1-2M, which will drive the demand for high-pixel forward-looking CIS.

Memory chips

DRAM is gradually upgraded from L1/L2 LPDDR4 to L4/L5 GDDR6, and the L5 bandwidth is about 9 times that of L1. NAND is upgraded from L1/L2 eMMC to L4/L5 PCIe, and the L5 capacity is about 20 times that of L1. The number of NorFlash installations ranges from a dozen to dozens of pixels, and the installation requirements of EEPROM for smart cars reach 30-40 units. The value of automotive memory chips in automotive semiconductors will increase from 8% in 2023 to 10-11% in 2028.

Wireless charging module

The

problem of unmanned charging still needs to be solved to realize the unmanned operation of the whole process of unmanned driving, and Tesla's submission of four magnetic field resonance charging technologies may become the answer. At present, the power of wireless charging equipment is equivalent to that of AC charging piles, and with the gradual decline of costs, it will form a substitution effect in the medium and long term. At present, a research team has developed a 100kW wireless charging device, which is expected to replace some DC charging piles in the long term as the technology matures and the cost decreases.

　　SoC

The

shift to a centralized domain controller architecture is driving the demand for SoC usage, with the global and Chinese ADAS applications reaching a CAGR of 24% and 23% respectively from 2024 to 2028. In the development of high-end intelligent driving functions, larger computing power SoC chips (≥100TOPS) are needed to support new algorithms and more advanced vehicle EE architecture (central computing + regional control).

Smart cockpit

The intelligent cockpit provides drivers and passengers with a comprehensive experience of safety, intelligence, efficiency, and pleasure through the three dimensions of human-computer interaction, networked services, and scene expansion, and the realization of functions requires the participation of components such as display devices and communication modules. From 2022 to 2025, the CAGR of the global smart cockpit market will reach 10% and 12%, and the penetration rate of China's smart cockpit will lead the world by 11pct in 2022, and the gap will continue to widen in the next few years.

　　PCB

The

process of vehicle electrification continues to deepen, and it is expected that automotive electronics will account for 50% of the overall cost of automobiles by 2030, driving the continuous increase in PCB usage. In terms of subdivided products, the data transmission speed required by smart cockpits and ADAS is higher, which will drive the consumption of multilayer boards and HDI to further increase, especially HDI will reach a CAGR of 16.5% from 2022 to 2028, higher than the overall growth level of PCBs of 7.1%, followed by flexible boards, with a CAGR of 9.1%, and multilayer boards will reach 7.1%.

It is recommended to pay attention

CIS: Weir shares (603501.SH), Smartway-W (688213.SH), Gekewei (688728.SH).

On-board storage: GigaDevice (603986.SH), Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ), Dongxin (688110.SH

Wireless charging module: Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ).

Magnetic materials: Tiantong shares (600330.SH), Zhongke Sanhuan (000970.SZ), Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.SH).

Analog chips: Shengbang (300661.SZ), NOVOSENSE (688052.SH), Siruipu (688536.SH).

Intelligent cockpit: Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021.SZ), Desay SV (002920.SZ).

PCB: Shiyun Circuit (603920.SH), Kinwong Electronics (603228.SH), Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ

Risk Warning

Upside risks: autonomous driving progress is advancing faster than expected; Governments have approved driverless driving ahead of schedule; Wireless charging is being rolled out at an accelerated pace

Downside risks: macroeconomic downturn; The progress of autonomous driving of new energy vehicle manufacturers is not as expected; The launch of the wireless charging function is not as fast as expected; Other systemic risks