As one of the "crown jewels of manufacturing", industrial robots are moving towards embodied intelligence in the AI era.

As defined by the international standard ISO 8373:2021, an industrial robot is an automated, reprogrammable, multi-purpose operating device that can be programmed with three or more axes, either in situ or on a mobile platform, for automation applications in an industrial environment.

China is the world's largest market for industrial robots, accounting for half of the world's total installations. At present, domestic manufacturers are continuing to improve their independent innovation capabilities and narrow the gap with leading overseas enterprises. Looking at the world, industrial robots still need to improve their intelligent characteristics and move towards embodied intelligent industrial robots, which will be a new change.

China is the world's largest market for industrial robots

According to the division of functions, industrial robots can be divided into packaging, loading and unloading, spraying, material handling, welding, grinding, palletizing, assembly and other robots. Material handling, welding, and assembly robots are the three most widely used fields.

According to the "2024 World Robot Report" released by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), in 2023, there will be about 4.28 million robots operating in factories around the world, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the number of global industrial robots participating in automated production will reach a record high. Annual installations in 2023 reached 541302, the second highest in history, only 2% lower than the record 552946 installations in 2022, and has exceeded 500,000 units for the third consecutive year. Of the new industrial robots deployed in 2023, 70% are in Asia, 17% in Europe, and 10% in the Americas.

According to IFR, China is currently the world's largest market for industrial robots. In 2023, the number of industrial robots in China will be about 1.8 million, making it the first and only country in the world to have such a large number of industrial robots.

In 2023, China will install a total of 276288 industrial robots, accounting for 51% of the total global installations. This result is the second-highest level ever (290144 installations in China in 2022). IFR expects that the demand for industrial robots in China will accelerate in the second half of 2024, and the market will be more stable by the end of the year. In the long run, the demand for industrial robots in China's manufacturing industry still has great growth potential, and the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 5%-10% before 2027.

From the perspective of downstream applications, MIR Rui Industrial Statistics show that the shipment of industrial robots in the fields of photovoltaics, automotive electronics, and semiconductors has the fastest growth rate.

The market share of domestic industrial robots is rising

The global industrial robots are mainly dominated by Japan's Fanuc (FANUC), Japan's Yaskawa Electric (Yaskawa), Germany's Kuka (acquired by Midea), and Switzerland's ABB.

However, with the help of domestic manufacturers such as Eston (002747. SZ), Inovance Technology (300124. SZ) and other rises, the share of the "four families" in the Chinese market has declined in recent years, from 70% to about 40%. According to MIR and CRIA data, the localization rate of industrial robots in China will reach 45% in 2023, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year.

According to the statistics of Rui Industry, in 2023, the market share of Estun industrial robots in China will be about 8.5%, and Inovance Technology will be about 6.5%, ranking second and fourth respectively.

"It needs to be admitted that although China is the world's largest market for industrial robots, domestic manufacturers mainly occupy the low-end market, and the high-end market is still dominated by international brands." Wu Yiming, founder and chairman of Zhongke Optoelectronics, an embodied intelligent robot company, said in an interview with CBN.

Wu Yiming believes that the development of the domestic robot industry is first to improve the localization ability of core components.

The core components of industrial robots include controllers, servo systems, and reducers, which determine the accuracy, stability, load capacity and other important performance indicators of industrial robots. Among them, the controller is the "brain" of industrial robots, which generally accounts for about 15% of the total cost; The servo system is the "power source" of industrial robots, which generally accounts for about 20% of the total cost; The reducer is the "joint" of the industrial robot, which generally accounts for about 35% of the total cost.

It is reported that due to the high technical barriers to the production of core components, most of the key technologies are monopolized by a few companies, which makes domestic robot manufacturers lack bargaining power and high procurement prices when purchasing.

"As far as I know, the localization rate of controllers, servo systems, and reducers is 10%~20%." Wu Yiming told Yicai that the iteration of core components is in a linear development stage, and domestic brands are constantly replacing the market share of foreign brands, which is a trend that has been very obvious. ”

With the gradual accumulation and progress of domestic manufacturers' technology, the gap between the current control system and foreign products is gradually narrowing. Some domestic manufacturers have independently developed their own control systems, including Estun, Huazhong CNC, Xinshida, Guangzhou CNC, Inovance Technology, etc., and a number of professional control system service providers such as Gootech, INVT, Canop, etc. have also been born.

In the field of servo systems, Inovance said in its annual report that its domestic market share will reach 28.2% in 2023.

Eston told Yicai that the company has three core technologies of fully autonomous robot controller, operating system and servo system, and the autonomy rate of core components of robots has reached more than 90%, with 87 industrial robots covering 3-700kg loads, ranking second in the world in terms of the number of robot categories and first in domestic shipments.

Towards embodied intelligence

"Innovation ability is the core competitiveness of the industrial robot industry." Wu Yiming said that domestic robot manufacturers are generally fighting for cost and marketing capabilities, and lack technological innovation; Internationally, the technological progress of industrial robots has been stagnant for at least two decades, and the demand side has begun to saturate without a significant expansion of use. These two points have created a situation where it is difficult for domestic robot manufacturers to achieve profitability.

At present, the head manufacturers of domestic industrial robots, Eston and Inovance Technology, have achieved profitability, and the robot (300024. SZ) will still have a negative non-net profit in 2023, and EFORT (688165. SH) has not yet achieved profitability in 2023.

"The most important thing is to improve the intelligent characteristics of industrial robots, and breakthroughs in embodied intelligence theory and technology will lead the leapfrog development of robot intelligent characteristics." Wu Yiming said that the core of intelligent characteristics is the integration of visual perception and industrial robotic arm movement, and the brain directs the manipulation of the robotic arm based on structural and spatial perception and measurement information, so as to break the dominant position of the robotic arm ontology in traditional cognition. Embodied intelligent robots are driven by intelligent algorithms, and intelligent robots based on intelligent algorithms are directed by the brain, rather than inlaid with brains and eyes in the hands. With the development of intelligence, the industrial robots of the future will be able to face more challenging scenarios.

According to the definition of embodied intelligence by Zhongke Optoelectronics, "embodied intelligence" refers to the artificial intelligence method in which the subject (machine) constructs a cognitive model that conforms to the evolution trend of the physical existence and relationship between the elements of self, object and environment in the process of interaction (information perception, transformation and response) between the self, the object and the environment, and achieves problem solving or value realization.

Wu Yiming explained that under embodied intelligence, the brain directs the manipulator to do different workpieces based on the ability to perceive the eyes, not to identify the workpiece (label information) and perform the task according to the programs of different workpieces set by people for different workpieces, but after the eye perceives the workpiece, based on the task requirements of independent understanding, intelligently analyzes the structure of the workpiece, the spatial relationship of each element, and then independently generates the process, action and various motion parameters, and even interacts and iterates to achieve autonomous operation. "Such a robot is similar to a journeyman who gets the drawings of the workpiece and knows the task goal."

However, Wu Yiming believes that all existing industrial robots in the world have not reached the so-called intelligent breakthrough. "Our breakthrough in embodied intelligence is unique. Based on modern mathematical methods (differential geometry, topology, group theory, etc.), we build a new underlying algorithm architecture of intelligence theory, and realize fine recognition based on small sample data, which is the root technology for intelligent equipment and intelligent robots to realize autonomous identification, autonomous movement, and adaptive operation. ”

Wu Yiming said that in the civil field, at present, the "Tongren" series of Zhongke Optoelectronics has produced intelligent welding robots, which can independently identify multiple varieties of small batch workpieces, independently plan complex operation trajectories and form drivers for robotic arms, with a total shipment of about 50 sets; The military industry is expected to form a revenue of 70 million ~ 100 million yuan this year, and related technological breakthroughs have been verified in major national tasks.

(This article is from Yicai).

View original image 1.97M