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Interface News reporter Gao Jing

"The wind direction of electric bicycle batteries has changed", "lithium batteries have been completely abandoned, and lead-acid batteries have been killed", "those experts finally know how good lead-acid batteries are" ......

In the past two months, similar voices have flooded various social media platforms.

On August 30, the Ministry of Commerce and other five departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Electric Bicycles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Trade-in Plan"), proposing that consumers who return old lithium-ion battery electric bicycles and exchange them for lead-acid battery electric bicycles can appropriately increase subsidies.

On September 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) publicly solicited opinions on the mandatory national standards of the "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles (Draft for Comments)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Comments"), adding detailed rules for the weight of lead-acid battery versions of electric bicycles, making the weight limit of electric bicycles equipped with lead-acid batteries relaxed from the previous 55 kg to 63 kg.

The successive policies have blown gusts of "spring breeze" to the lead-acid batteries of electric bicycles. This seems to be somewhat contrary to the "lead to lithium" route vigorously promoted by the industry before.

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e-bike industry has been saying "lead-lithium controversy" for a long time. Although there is no explicit provision, the replacement of lead-acid batteries by lithium batteries is the development trend of the electric bicycle industry in recent years.

Its origins can be traced back to the mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" (GB17761-2018) (hereinafter referred to as the new national standard 2018), which was implemented in 2019, which limits the weight of electric vehicles.

Lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries are the two most commonly used types of batteries for electric bicycles, and the biggest difference between the two is energy density. The energy density of lithium batteries is about 3-5 times that of lead-acid batteries, which means that the weight of lead-acid batteries will be much heavier for the same mileage. However, lead-acid batteries also have the advantages of low cost and strong stability.

Before the implementation of the new national standard 2018, domestic electric bicycle batteries generally used lead-acid batteries as power. However, the speed and weight of electric bicycles have been too fast, which has led to frequent traffic accidents.

In order to solve the above problems, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology took the lead in organizing the revision of the new national standard 2018.

The new national standard 2018 clarifies that the maximum speed of electric bicycles shall not exceed 25 km/h, the nominal voltage of the battery shall not be greater than 48 V, and the weight of the whole vehicle (including the battery) shall not be greater than 55 kg, and it must have the function of pedaling and riding.

"There are many irrationalities in the new national standard 2018."

Li Feng (pseudonym), a senior practitioner of electric bicycle batteries, told Jiemian News, and pointed out that the pedals on electric bicycles actually have no substantive role, just to distinguish the attributes of electric vehicles.

He Penglin, deputy director of the Safety Technology Research Center of the China Electronics Standardization Institute, found through a questionnaire survey of nearly 130,000 netizens that 79% of electric bicycle consumers basically do not use the pedal riding function.

Li Feng said that in the new national standard 2018, there are some similar "absurd" requirements, such as the inability to install rearview mirrors due to vehicle height restrictions.

"But these are minor issues. The biggest problem with the new national standard 2018 is that the weight of the whole vehicle with batteries is limited to 55 kg. Li Feng said.

This regulation limits the weight of e-bike batteries, which is even worse for lead-acid batteries, which already have a low energy density.

Li Feng said that if the above weight limit is followed, the maximum range of the lead-acid battery version of the electric bicycle can only reach about 40 kilometers, which cannot meet the actual needs of consumers.

As a result, lithium batteries with higher energy density and lighter weight have become the main force of development.

"This is an important reason for the large-scale occurrence of electric bicycle fire accidents in the past two years." Li Feng said.

The evidence he gave was that the new national standard 2018 was officially implemented on April 15, 2019, and domestic electric vehicle fire accidents have increased significantly since 2020.

According to data from the Ministry of Emergency Management, there were more than 3,000 electric vehicle fire accidents in 2018, and by 2021, this number has risen to 15,000, an increase of 4 times in three years, and the number of electric vehicle fire accidents will further increase to 21,000 in 2023, which has increased about 6 times compared with before the implementation of the new national standard in 2018. During this period, the number of electric bicycles in China only increased from 250 million to 350 million, an increase of about 40%.

According

to the latest data from the national electric bicycle safety hazard rectification work team, in July this year, 622 electric bicycle fires caused by battery failure in China were caused by lithium batteries, accounting for 82.1%; There were 131 lead-acid batteries, accounting for 17.3%.

Data from Zhejiang, a major province of electric bicycles in China, also shows that from July to September this year, a total of 160 electric bicycle fires occurred in the province, of which 85 were caused by lithium batteries, accounting for 53.1%; There were 52 lead-acid batteries, accounting for 32.5%.

From a physical point of view, the high energy density of lithium batteries results in the energy stored by them far exceeding that of lead-acid batteries per unit volume and weight. As a result, when subjected to physical damage, overcharging, or overheating, lithium batteries release more intense energy, which can trigger thermal runaway, which can lead to fires.

Li Feng believes that frequent fire accidents have exposed the potential safety hazards of lithium batteries for electric bicycles, and also exposed the defects of the new national standard 2018, and the "Draft for Comments" was born.

For electric bicycles equipped with lead-acid batteries, the Consultation Paper relaxes the weight limit. It requires that the vehicle mass of a fully assembled e-bike should be less than or equal to 55 kg, while the weight of a fully assembled e-bike using lead-acid batteries should be less than or equal to 63 kg.

Wang Zeshen, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, pointed out in an interview with other media that the "Draft for Comments" will relax the weight limit of lead-acid battery version of electric bicycles by 8 kg, which can just solve the change from 48V12Ah lead-acid to 48V20Ah lead-acid, improve the endurance of electric bicycles, and basically meet the needs of consumers for daily travel of 70 kilometers.

Wang Zeshen said that the relaxation of vehicle weight restrictions means that the use of lead-acid batteries will be more flexible, which may be a good thing for the lead-acid battery industry and can consolidate its market share in the short term.

"The Draft for Comments is an 'overkill' of the new national standard 2018, and it is truly responsible for the safety of people's lives and property. Tram fires in China could be radically reversed. Li Feng said.

But there are also differing opinions.

Mo Ke, the founder of True Lithium Research, said that whether it is the "Draft for Comments" or the "Trade-in Plan", from the appearance, it seems that it is indeed tilting towards lead-acid batteries, but this is not the case.

Moke pointed out that in recent years, with the implementation of "lead to lithium", the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the domestic electric bicycle industry has grown rapidly. Public data shows that the penetration rate of lithium batteries in domestic electric bicycles has increased from less than 2% in 2011 to 20% at present.

In Moke's view, the current pattern of lithium battery and lead-acid in the electric bicycle industry has been difficult to change on a large scale, "'lead to lithium' has been changed to today, and the basic ones that can be replaced by lithium batteries have been changed, and the remaining part is the basic disk of lead-acid batteries, which is difficult to shake." ”

Under the already relatively fixed industry pattern, the main purpose of successively issuing policies that are favorable to lead-acid batteries is not to promote lead-acid batteries to replace lithium batteries, but to solve the current problems faced by the electric bicycle industry.

Li Xiang, product director of Xinneng'an's mini vehicle division, also holds a similar view. He believes that the launch of the "Draft for Comments" is more to solve the problem that the lead-acid battery version of the electric bicycle with the weight standard cannot meet the actual use needs of consumers.

Xinneng'an, a joint venture between CATL and ATL, is a lithium battery manufacturer involved in three major fields: energy storage systems, mini vehicles, and smart product drive batteries.

Li Xiang pointed out that even if the lead-acid battery version of the electric bicycle weighs 8 kg more than the lithium battery version, its cruising range is still far less than that of the lithium battery version, and it can only meet the needs of short-distance travel. The position of lithium batteries in the field of electric bicycles is still solid.

"In the e-bike market, the final choice is still in the hands of the user." Li Xiang said.

Regarding the fire accident of lithium batteries, Moke believes: "It should be noted that in the actual use process, the lithium batteries that cause fires are often modified inferior lithium batteries. ”

The

main cost of electric bicycles is concentrated in the three parts of lithium batteries, motors, and frames, and in high-end models, the cost of lithium batteries accounts for about one-third; In the low-end models below 4,000 yuan, the cost of lithium batteries accounts for about half. Since lithium is still a scarce resource, it is currently mainly dependent on imports, and the cost of lithium batteries is high. In the case of similar configurations, an electric bicycle with a lithium battery will be hundreds more expensive than a lead-acid battery.

The consumer group of electric bicycles is often more sensitive to price. Some consumers who have speed and battery life needs for electric bicycles will choose to install inferior lithium batteries produced by small workshops. Its price is generally only one-half or even one-third of that of compliant lithium batteries.

Many of the cells of this type of lithium battery come from the lithium batteries eliminated by electric vehicles, which have potential safety hazards, and the superimposed rough assembly process and messy production environment make the lithium batteries produced very prone to problems.

Li Xiang pointed out that the previous electric bicycle lithium battery industry specifications were not perfect, the lack of systematic management, the industry threshold was low, and a large number of modified and inferior batteries entered the market, which led to frequent fire accidents and made the reputation of lithium batteries in the field of electric bicycles worse.

Moke said that the introduction of the "trade-in program" provides users with low-quality lithium batteries with an opportunity to choose, which can also further eliminate the remaining safety hazards in the market.

In addition, Mo Ke also pointed out that various policies will always go through a process of gradual improvement and gradual rationality. Previously, the step of "lead to lithium" was too big, and all aspects of the industry did not keep up, causing many problems. At present, the introduction of new policies and the revision of old policies reflect the adjustment of the rhythm of "lead to lithium" at the national level.

For lithium batteries for electric bicycles, the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standards Committee) issued the "Safety Technical Specifications for Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles" in April this year. The "Technical Specification" is a mandatory national standard for the safety of lithium batteries for electric bicycles, which regulates the design, production and sales process of lithium battery products for electric bicycles. The Technical Specifications will be officially implemented on November 1, 2024.

In September, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Guidelines for the Health Assessment of Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles" and solicited opinions from the public. The "Work Guidelines" set up two parts for lithium batteries: "general conditions" and "technical conditions" to identify whether there are potential safety hazards in batteries.

Li Xiang pointed out that the successive release of lithium battery specifications for electric bicycles is a good thing for the market, enterprises are limited by the norms, some are eliminated, some are adjusted, the safety of lithium batteries will be improved, and consumers will gradually eliminate the panic about lithium battery safety.

As the global leader in electric light vehicle batteries, the relevant person in charge of Tianneng Co., Ltd. (688819.SH) told Jiemian News that the so-called "lead-lithium dispute" in the field of electric bicycles is a false proposition, and there is no question of who wins whom.

He pointed out that lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries have their own characteristics, the former is safe and cheap, but it is large in size and has a relatively short battery life; The latter is light in weight and has a long battery life, but the price is higher, and unqualified lithium batteries frequently cause fires, "both have their own application scenarios, and it is difficult to replace each other, and the final choice should be handed over to consumers." ”

Li Xiang also believes that in the short and medium term, lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries will coexist in the market.

However, from a long-term perspective, with the continuous iteration of lithium batteries or similar technical routes, the gradual upgrading of various performance, the gradual improvement of cost performance, the gradual improvement of the industrial chain, and the gradual improvement of the recycling and recycling system, it will be possible to replace lead-acid batteries.

Li Xiang said that with the continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium batteries, the price difference between lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries for electric bicycles has been very close, "From the current technological development trend, the price of lithium battery version of electric bicycles can be expected to catch up with lead-acid battery models." ”

In terms of the company's technical layout, Li Xiang said that Xinnengan has been involved in lithium battery and similar lithium battery, such as sodium battery and other technical routes, and will continue to adjust according to user needs, market direction and maturity of various materials in the future. However, there is currently no plan to lay out the technical route of lead-acid batteries.

Tianneng shares at the same time layout of lead and lithium batteries. However, according to the relevant person in charge, in the field of electric bicycles, Tianneng shares are still dominated by lead-acid batteries, and lithium batteries will be more used in other fields such as energy storage. Tianneng shares financial report shows that last year, the company achieved revenue of 47.7 billion yuan, of which lead-acid battery products contributed 98% of the company's operating income.