21st Century Business Herald reporter Zhang Sainan reported from Shanghai

The

semiconductor industry, which is already in the recovery cycle, has become the "most beautiful boy" in the industry sector with the blessing of the upward atmosphere of the market.

On September 30, the total full-day turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 2.61 trillion. In the Wind industry sector, the semiconductor concept rose by 14.82%, becoming the largest gainer.

In terms of individual stocks, Liancheng CNC (835368. BJ) 30CM daily limit, National Technology (300077. SZ), VeriSilicon (688521. SH), Aiwei Electronics (688798. SH), Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316. SZ), Dongwei Semiconductor(688261. SH), Fumanwei (300671. SZ) and nearly 30 other companies have a 20CM daily limit. None of the stocks in the sector fell, and the company with the smallest decline was ST Huawei (600360.SH), which also rose 4.91%, almost touching the daily limit.

The sector rebounded strongly from the bottom

Affected by downstream demand, the overall performance of the semiconductor industry was sluggish last year, and the performance of A-share industry chain companies was bleak. Since the beginning of this year, the trend of performance recovery has further emerged, although the market performance has been reflected, but on the whole, the valuation of the industry is still at the bottom.

In comparison, the Wind Semiconductor Index will be about 4,500-5,000 points at the end of 2023, and it will decline significantly since 2024. Just two months before the start of this round of market, the sector index fell from 4,200 points all the way to below 3,500 points, and at the end of September 2024, the index reached a minimum of 3,420 points, which can be seen in the downward degree.

Since September 24, the plate market has started, and in only two trading days on the 27th and 30th, the plate has pulled more than 800 points, directly rushing to more than 4,600 points, which is the highest point this year.

In addition to the market sentiment, the upward cycle of the semiconductor industry may be the fundamental reason for the sector to lead the rally.

According to the data disclosed by SIA in July 2024, in July 2024, the monthly sales of global semiconductors reached 5.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.74%, which has recovered to the highest level in recent years. Among them, the semiconductor sales data in the Americas and China have recovered significantly, with the sales amount in the Americas hitting the highest in recent years, and the sales volume in China has gradually recovered from the low point in early 2023.

Judging from the performance of the A-share semiconductor industry chain in the first half of the year, the recovery trend is obvious. Among the 101 companies in the Wind semiconductor industry, 52 companies increased their attributable net profit year-on-year in the first half of the year, compared with only 39 companies that rose in the same period last year. In the first half of this year, the net profit increased by more than 100%, and a total of 22 companies saw a year-on-year increase of more than 5 times, including Changchuan Technology, Allwinner Technology, Weir Shares, Montage Technology, and Jingjiawei.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, in the second quarter of this year, the net profit of 74 companies increased quarter-on-quarter, with the highest increase of more than 160 times. 28 companies, including China Resources Micro, Changchuan Technology, Tuojing Technology, Neusoft Carrier, Jingjia Micro, Ashtron, and Ming Microelectronics, rose by more than 100% in the second quarter.

In the first half of the year, the trend of industry recovery is confirmed. SMIC, a leading wafer foundry, believes that in the first half of 2024, the demand in the global market will gradually recover, all links in the industrial chain will gradually improve, and wafer foundry will usher in a certain demand rebound for key industries at the front end of the industrial chain. In the short term, the inventory situation of leading companies in consumer electronics and other products is better than the same period in 2023, which increases confidence in the overall industrial recovery in 2024.

The second half of the year is expected to be positive

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the forecasts of the two leading foundries are representative. SMIC's third-quarter revenue guidance is 13%-15% sequentially and gross margin in the range of 18% to 20%. Hua Hong expects third-quarter sales revenue of $500 million to $520 million, with gross margin in the range of 10% to 12%. The company's second-quarter revenue was $478.5 million, with a gross margin of 10.5%.

According to Zhao Haijun, co-CEO of SMIC, the main reasons for the growth include: first, due to the influence of geopolitics, the demand for localization has accelerated, which has made the chip set production capacity in several major market areas in short supply, and the production capacity of 12-inch nodes is very tight, and the price is good; Second, the company's expansion this year is in 12-inch products, the added value is relatively high, the new expansion capacity has been fully utilized and brought income, and the optimization and adjustment of the product portfolio has been promoted. Based on the above reasons, the company's average unit price in the third quarter is expected to increase quarter-on-quarter, and drive the gross profit margin to increase quarter-on-quarter.

A number of industrial chain companies are expected to improve. Montage Technology expects to deliver about 600,000 PCIe Retimer chips in the third quarter of this year, a further significant increase sequentially. Zhichun Technology disclosed that the company expects new orders in 2024 to range from 5.5 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan (excluding long-term orders from 5 to 15 years), and process equipment orders to range from 1.5 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan. The company's process equipment delivery target is 1.3 billion yuan in 2024.

Xinjie Energy previously told reporters at the Shanghai market performance meeting that China, as the world's largest consumer of power semiconductors, is expected to continue to increase the demand for high-performance power devices produced by the company with the increase in incremental application scenarios and demand brought by emerging markets such as new energy vehicles, AI, photovoltaic and energy storage.

Wingtech Technology said that after the semiconductor has undergone cyclical adjustments, the company's semiconductor business is expected to show a positive trend in the next one to two years. Since the second quarter of this year, the industrial and consumer electronics markets have gradually recovered, and the demand for power semiconductors in industrial automation and robotics has also increased. In the future, the company's business will usher in incremental development in multiple segments.

Market research firm Omdia predicts that the total revenue of the global semiconductor industry in the third quarter of this year will reach $175.866 billion, an increase of about 8.5% from $162.18 billion in the second quarter.