GF Securities released a research report saying that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in August was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry fell slightly. From the perspective of sub-indexes, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index and supplier delivery time index are all below the critical point, and the economy is still slowing down, so it is recommended to wait for fundamental signals. The supply pattern of upstream assets such as ships, rail transit and traditional energy equipment is excellent, and the demand is recovering moderately; Construction machinery and overseas consumer goods manufacturing, as well as the bottom of the general automation domestic demand is expected to stabilize at the bottom, overseas to drive the increase.

Market performance analysis: According to Wind data, the machinery industry index (CITIC) fell 2.89%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.71%, and the ChiNext index fell 2.68% in the current period (September 2-September 6).

The PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month in August. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31, in August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry fell slightly. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point; The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.7% and 46.4% respectively, down 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of sub-indexes, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new orders index, the raw material inventory index, the employment index and the supplier delivery time index are all below the critical point, and the economy is still slowing down, so it is recommended to wait for fundamental signals.

Mechanical dynamics: According to the People's Bank of China, at the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 303.31 trillion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 63.23 trillion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 11.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. In the first seven months, the net cash injection was 539.6 billion yuan.

Machinery industry view: (1) Assets with excellent supply pattern and moderate demand recovery: upstream assets such as ships, rail transit and traditional energy equipment. (2) Domestic demand is expected to stabilize at the bottom, and overseas will drive the incremental areas: focus on the layout of construction machinery and overseas consumer goods manufacturing, as well as general automation at the bottom. (3) In areas where there are changes in the short-term boom and major changes in the industrial side, the layout of semiconductor equipment, 3C industry chain, humanoid robots, etc.

It is recommended to pay attention to: GF Securities gives several core main lines around the investment in the machinery industry in the second half of 2024:

(1) Varieties waiting for the recovery of the cycle: key recommended construction machinery - Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), Zoomlion (000157.SZ), Liugong (000528.SZ), Hengli Hydraulics (601100.SH), Zhejiang Dingli (603338.SH); It is recommended to pay attention to Shantui shares (000680.SZ); General Automation - recommend Anhui Heli (600761.SH), Hangcha Group (603298.SH), Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) (joint coverage of Hedian New Group), Baichu Electronics (688188.SH), Hangyang (002439.SZ), Yizumi (300415.SZ), Haitian Precision (601882.SH), Neway CNC (688697.SH), it is recommended to pay attention to Haitian International (01882); Export industry chain - recommended superstar technology (002444.SZ), Chervon Holdings (02285), Honghua Digital Technology (688789.SH), Jack shares (603337.SH), Miao Exhibition (300795.SZ) (and joint coverage of the trading company), etc.

(2) Excellent supply pattern and cyclical assets: China Shipbuilding (600150.SH), China Dynamics (600482.SH) (and military industry group joint coverage), CIMC (000039.SZ), CNOOC (600583.SH), Jereh (002353.SZ), CNOOC Development (600968.SH), Neway (603699.SH), Naipu Mining Machinery (300818.SZ), CRRC ( 601766.SH), Times Electric (688187.SH).

(3) Growth assets: It is recommended to pay attention to the 3C industrial chain - Saiteng shares (603283.SH), Dingtai Hi-Tech (301377.SZ), United Win Laser (688518.SH), etc.; semiconductor equipment micro company (688012.SH), Huafeng measurement and control (688200.SH), etc.; The humanoid robot sector focuses on green harmonics (688017.SH), Mingzhi Electric (603728.SH), Beite Technology (603009.SH), Wuzhou New Year (603667.SH), etc.

Risk warning: macroeconomic changes lead to fluctuations in demand for machinery products; rising raw material prices suppress corporate profitability; fluctuations in earnings due to changes in exchange rates; The progress of capacity reduction is less than expected.