JinkoSolar (688223): TOPCON has gradually emerged as a leading player, and its global layout has enhanced its competitiveness
DATE:  Aug 31 2024

On August 30, the company released its 2024 interim report, achieving revenue of 47.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of -12%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -69%; The net profit after deducting non-attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -94%. Among them, Q2 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 24 million yuan and a net profit of 26 million yuan. In April, a fire accident occurred on the roof of the first phase of the slice battery workshop of the company's Shanxi base, affecting the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 of -647 million yuan.



Shipments continued to grow with the support of TOPCon's superior production capacity and global channel layout. In the first half of the year, the company achieved module sales of 43.8 GW, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and module shipments continued to rank first in the industry, of which about 35.9 GW of N-type modules. In the first half of the year, overseas market shipments accounted for about 65% of module products, 71% of overseas revenue, and about 50% of the market share in the Middle East market, where demand has been released, and Pakistan has signed orders of more than 4GW throughout the year. The company expects to ship 23-25GW of modules in Q3, and is confident to meet the full-year shipment guidance of 100-110GW, and is expected to continue to lead in market share.

Deepen the production capacity layout in the Middle East and enhance global competitiveness. In July, the company announced that it had signed a "Shareholders Agreement" with RELC, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's public investment fund PIF, and VI, a Saudi green energy investment company, to invest US$985 million to build 10GW of high-efficiency cell and module production capacity, with the company holding 40% of the shares.

Under the background of pressure on the profitability of the industrial chain, the advantages of TOPCon products are highlighted, and the efficiency and cost continue to lead and consolidate the leading position. Q2 The price of the industrial chain fell to a low level, the profitability of the main industrial chain was under pressure, and the company's gross profit margin decreased by 2.0 month-on-month, and PCT decreased to 7.60%. The company continued to promote cost optimization through technological upgrading, and in Q2, it still achieved positive profitability against the background of asset impairment of 434 million yuan, which is at the leading level in the industry. At present, the average test efficiency of the company's TOPCon cells for mass production has exceeded 26.1%, considering the efficiency and power advantages of TOPCon modules, as well as the cost optimization space brought about by subsequent technological advances, the company is expected to maintain the profit gap and consolidate its leading position with the advantages of TOPCon products and technologies under the background of pressure on the industrial chain.

According to our latest forecast for industrial chain prices, we have lowered the company's 24-26 net profit attributable to the parent company to 14.9 (-63%), 39.8 (-26%), and 54.6 (-23%) billion yuan, taking into account the company's technological advantages and leading global channel layout, and maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk Warning:

Deterioration of the international trade environment; New technologies are not progressing as expected; The RMB exchange rate fluctuates.

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