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1. Star Chain (Starlink) is the world's largest low-orbit satellite constellation with significant scale effects: Star Chain is one of SpaceX's four major projects and has developed into the world's largest low-orbit satellite Internet constellation. In 2023, the star chain launched a total of 1984 satellites, a total of 5650 have been launched. Starchain satellite manufacturing costs less than $2000/kg, leading the world, Falcon 9 is the main launch vehicle of the star chain, the launch cost is expected to be optimized to $17 million/time, leading the peer. Low cost is the embodiment of scale effect, but also for the subsequent deployment of domestic low-orbit satellite Internet combed the price benchmark.
2. star chain has completed the closed-loop business model, showing the great application prospect of low-orbit communication satellites: the c-end applications of star chain commercial applications include households, saloon cars and boats, and the B- end applications include fixed locations, mobile equipment, maritime affairs and private planes. direct mobile phone connection service is expected to be opened this year. As of November 2023, the number of users reached 2.3 million, serving more than 60 countries around the world. The fee is based on the terminal traffic package, with a basic terminal of $599 per unit and a basic traffic package of $120 per month, and the company announced in November 2023 that it had broken even. According to our estimates, Star Chain's forward revenue may exceed $60 billion, covering 70 million users.
3. disassembling the principle of the star chain working system: the star chain satellite uses phased array antennas to form multiple beams to help the satellite connect multiple terminals, and the terminal focuses the beams to the satellite; The second generation satellite V2.0 mini is equipped with 4 phased array antennas, with a theoretical downlink capacity of 60-80Gbps and 4 inter-satellite laser communication modules. Musk announced in 2023 that the V2 mini satellite network capacity may reach 165Tbps. According to NSR analysis, the first generation of stars covers an area of about 1000 km2 and has a delay of about 40ms. The future V2.0 star or weight 2 tons, delay less than 20ms, communication capacity of 170Gbps. On the ground side, Star Chain has deployed 150 relay stations and the second generation terminal has 16 channels embedded.
4. global satellite operators are actively laying out low-orbit communication constellations: at present, the constellations of global low-orbit satellite internet mainly include star chain, Amazon Kuiper, Eutelsat OneWeb and Telesatlightspeed; The latter three constellations have planned 3236, 648 and 198 satellites respectively. In addition, Intelesat, SES, Viasat and other traditional head constellations are also planning to put into low orbit. Commercial prospects and scarce track resources are the core driving forces for the accelerated layout of a subject.
5. China accelerates the layout of low-orbit satellite Internet constellation: According to our estimates, the global market space for satellite manufacturing exceeds $100 billion, and the market space for application is about $200 billion. China has accelerated the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations. In 2023, it has successfully launched many experimental satellites, newly planned "G60 star chain" and the first star has been offline, private rocket technology has made continuous breakthroughs, Wenchang commercial launch site station 1 has been completed, and many mobile phone manufacturers at the application end have planned to open direct mobile phone satellites. It is expected that the country will launch low-orbit communication satellites on a large scale in 2024, and the industry will usher in a high -1, among them, it is suggested to pay attention to domestic phased array chip/component suppliers [Cheng Chang Technology (001270.SZ)], [Guobo Electronics (688375.SH)], satellite communication load core supplier [Xinke Mobile (688387.SH)], and ground terminal supplier [Haige Communication (002465.SZ)]].
Risk Warning: The construction of low-orbit satellite constellation is not as fast as expected, the development of satellite Internet application scenarios is not as good as expected, frequency orbit resources are heavily occupied, and there is uncertainty about the integration of satellite communications and 6G.
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