In the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has repeatedly debated technical routes such as single crystal polycrystalline and P-type N-type. With the continuous development of the industry, the topic has gradually turned to cost and efficiency.

however, in early September this year, the words of Zhong Baoshen, chairman of photovoltaic leader Longji green energy (SH601012, stock price 26.26 yuan, market value 199.1 billion yuan), put the dispute over photovoltaic technology route on the "challenge stage". Zhong Baoshen said at the 2023 semi-annual performance presentation meeting that "BC (back contact) cells will be the absolute mainstream of crystalline silicon cells in the next 5-6 years".

One stone stirs up thousands of waves, and the TOPCon (tunneling oxide layer passivation contact) battery, which is currently in the mainstream position in the market, also "has something to say".

in the Pujiang night talk forum held a few days ago, CTO Jin Hao of jingke energy (SH688223, stock price 9.97 yuan, market value 99.7 billion yuan) said that in terms of cost, TOPCon still has an absolute leading edge in the next 3-5 years, while BC not only has high cost, but also is more difficult for enterprises to realize.

jingke energy haining factory exhibition hall photo source: every reporter Huang xinlei photo

BC Battery VS TOPCon Battery

As the BC battery "Wang Po", Longji Green Energy is also full of confidence when "selling melons. According to Zhong Baoshen, the BC technology route currently introduced by the company is HPBC (High Efficiency Composite Passivation Back Contact Technology). There are mainly two mainstream power products -580W and 590W(182 version). It is expected that by the end of 2024, the company will introduce PRO (professional) version of HPBC, and its performance will be further improved.

Public information shows that BC battery is essentially because there is no grid line on the front of the product. No matter the sunlight is incident from any angle, there will be no grid line reflection, resulting in a substantial increase in power generation efficiency. However, from a technological point of view, this method also greatly increases the manufacturing difficulty.

However, compared with the photoelectric conversion efficiency, the difference between the BC battery and the TOPCon battery is not large. According to Longji Green Energy, the production efficiency of its HPBC products has exceeded 25%, while the highest efficiency of Jingke Energy TOPCon Battery Laboratory is 26.4, and the average efficiency of large-scale production is over 25.5. Through the introduction of laser SE platform, the average efficiency of TOPCon battery production is expected to increase to 25.8 by the end of the year.

Zhong Baoshen said that for HPBC technology, the company is based on a single-sided direction, but the subsequent HPBC PRO version will be a product with advantages on both sides. In photovoltaic power generation, if the front efficiency exceeds the opponent's 5% and the back is 20% lower than the opponent's, the comprehensive calculation of power generation has already exceeded the opponent's, mainly because the scattered light on the back is only about 6% of the front.

"Therefore, the effect of the efficiency difference on the power generation is much lower than that of the front. When the efficiency of the front is high enough, the gain difference of the power generation on the back will be offset." Zhong Baoshen said.

Longji green energy photo source: every reporter Zhang Jian photo

Jin Hao disagrees with this. He believes that BC is more suitable for single-sided batteries. Due to too much shielding on the back, it is very difficult to achieve a double-sided rate of more than 50% and the cost is very high. If the double-sided comprehensive power generation income is calculated, even if BC can be about 5W more on the front, the power generation effect on the back is inferior to TOPCon.

in addition, Jin Hao said that it is very difficult to reduce the cost of BC batteries. for example, in terms of consumption reduction of silver paste and flaking of silicon wafers, judging from a pilot line of BC mass production owned by jingke, the company judges that the cost difference between BC and TOPCon will be above 0.1 yuan/W in the next two to three years.

"Under the background that ground power stations generally choose cost-effective products, BC will hardly have corresponding vitality in two or three years or even longer." Jin Hao said.

according to the reply of jingke energy on the investor interaction platform on September 11, the maturity of BC battery technology still needs to be improved, and there is still a big gap between the cost and economy of integration and TOPCon. The company is concerned about the progress of a variety of technical routes, in the TOPCon route has a wealth of continuous efficiency means, synchronization has also been stocked based on TOPCon BC technology, will be based on the maturity of technology and customer demand in a timely manner to put on the market.

in terms of yield, Longji green energy's HPBC product has reached a yield of 95%. although it is lower than PERC's yield of 99% and 99.2, the company believes that if the product can reach a yield of 93%, it can be produced continuously on a large scale.

"At present, the yield level of 95% has been in line with the company's targets, and with the accumulation of experience in the future, the company will continue to improve the yield level of this product, which is expected to reach 96%, 97% or even 98%. HPBC production costs are highly correlated with yield levels and output, and as single-line output increases, yield will continue to improve, then costs will become more and more competitive." Longji green energy aspect said.

according to previous public disclosure by many enterprises, the target yield of TOPCon (SH688472, stock price 14.01 yuan, market value 51.672 billion yuan) is 98%, and the yield of TOPCon components of Zhonglai shares (SZ300393, stock price 11.22 yuan, market value 12.226 billion yuan) can reach more than 99.5.

on September 14, at jingke energy's Haining Jianshan factory, Jin Hao said that the company's TOPCon component yield was above 99%.

component production workshop of jingke energy haining factory. Photo source: every reporter Huang xinlei photo

The battle of routes is a battle of markets

In essence, the dispute over photovoltaic technology routes is actually a dispute over the market and enterprises.

Recently, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised its forecast for the scale of new installed capacity in 2023, with global PV new installed capacity expected to be raised from 280-330GW to 305-350GW and China's PV new installed capacity expected to be raised from 95-120GW to 120-140GW. According to Solar Power Europe, the number of countries with GW installed capacity will increase from 26 in 2022 to 32 in 2023.

PV InfoLink analyst Zhao Xiang said at the forum that "development beyond expectations" is a word often used in the first half of this year. the new TOPCon capacity planning has sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, and even many foreign investors have begun to enter the photovoltaic circuit. At present, many companies in the industry TOPCon expansion plan has completed equipment bidding, the first half of next year TOPCon effective capacity is expected to exceed PERC.

in terms of market share, Zhao Xiang said that in the first half of this year, TOPCon component shipments reached about 29GW, and it is expected to reach a volume of 110GW throughout the year, with a corresponding market share of about 25%. It is expected that TOPCon's overall shipment will account for 60% next year.

According to JinkoSolar's 2023 semi-annual report, the company achieved revenue of 53.624 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 60.52 percent over the same period last year, and achieved a net profit of 3.843 billion yuan, an increase of 324.58 percent over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company sold 33.1GW of photovoltaic products to the world, of which about 16.4GW of N-type modules, is expected to achieve 70GW-75GW of annual module shipments, of which N-type is expected to account for 60%.

In terms of capacity, it is expected that by the end of 2023, JinkoSolar silicon, battery and module capacity will reach 85GW, 90GW, 110GW, respectively. The battery capacity N-type is expected to account for more than 75%. It is understood that in the first half of the year, JinkoSolar plans to build a large vertical integration base project with an annual output of 56GW in Shanxi. This will be the world's first "super integrated" solar energy factory containing silicon wafers, batteries, and components. It is also the largest N-type integrated production base in the planned industry.

according to jingke energy's reply on the investor interaction platform on September 11, the company's TOPCon products have become the preferred products for most customers due to their advantages such as high conversion efficiency, high double-sided rate, high power generation, low attenuation and low temperature coefficient, and are also the main production capacity layout route for leading enterprises. the company's n-type components have shipped more than 10GW in a single quarter.

Longji Green Energy's 2023 semi-annual report disclosed that the company achieved revenue of 64.652 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 28.36 percent over the same period last year, and achieved net profit of 9.178 billion yuan, an increase of 41.63 percent over the same period last year. In the first half of 2023, the company achieved 26.64GW of single-crystal component shipments, of which 26.49GW was sold to the outside world and 0.15GW for its own use.

Longji green energy revealed in the institutional research, as of August 2023, Longji green energy Ordos 46GW silicon rod, silicon wafer project and 30GW battery project has been put into production, Malaysia and Vietnam part of the overseas production capacity has also begun to put into production. Among them, HPBC battery technology has been put into mass production. After a difficult climbing and debugging process, the designed yield and efficiency targets have been reached.

In addition, Longji Green Energy has expanded its production projects with 30GW HPBC batteries and 30GW TOPCon batteries, which have been put into production and are in the stage of continuous capacity improvement. The 30GW HPBC battery project is expected to reach full production by the end of 2023, and the TOPCon battery project is expected to reach full production by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

At the same time, as to whether competitors can quickly deploy BC technology in the future, Longji Green Energy said that other companies will also encounter difficulties in BC technology. The company has carried out a very complete and large number of patents on BC products. From batteries to packaging, the company has a total of more than 100 patents on this technology, which is conducive to the protection of the company's technology.

Source of cover image: Visual China

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