With the continuous disclosure of listed companies' interim reports, the latest positions of public funds and social security funds have gradually surfaced. In terms of changes in fund holdings, the move to swap positions is not small. Some analysts believe that capital grouping is still the focus that investors need to pay attention to. From the perspective of increasing positions of public funds and social security funds, optical modules, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and other industries can be configured opportunistically.

01 optical module:

Domestic substitution is expected to accelerate

Under the huge demand for data communication, the further transformation of data centers to large-scale and centralized will drive the rapid development of high-speed and medium-and long-distance optical modules. At the same time, with the development trend of AIGC clear, high computing power demand catalyzes higher rate of 800G, 1.6T optical module demand.

800G optical module as the AI computing base, demand continues to exceed expectations, the core leading manufacturers performance expectations are expected to continue to improve.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the upstream industry chain of optical modules such as optical chips may be in short supply next year against the background of higher-than-expected demand, and related companies are expected to accelerate customer verification breakthroughs. AI computing power construction and cloud computing demand resonance, 800G optical module to open a new cycle of mass production, 800G large customer demand guidance is expected to continue to exceed expectations, optical module leading manufacturers continue to expand capacity to cope with high demand. With 800G accelerated release revenue growth, the scale effect continues to improve the profitability of companies in the industry, superimposed on the proportion of high-rate product revenue increased, the profitability of companies in the industry or still have a large expected difference, performance expectations are expected to continue to be revised. At the same time, 800G upgrade cycle drives the rapid growth of demand for optical chips and ceramic shells, and overseas production capacity is limited to accelerate the process of domestic substitution. At present, overseas leading manufacturers are still high-speed optical chips, ceramic shell mainstream suppliers, limited by capacity bottlenecks can not meet the growing industry demand, domestic substitution process is expected to accelerate.

in the future, the demand for 800G Ethernet upgrade in the cloud computing center will gradually open, and the demand for 800G at the superposition overseas reasoning end will gradually explode, and the high growth of 800G product cycle is expected to be maintained. AI accelerates the arrival of 1.6T cycle to help medium-and long-term growth, and 1.6T will start small batch next year to promote the upgrading of optical modules. Societe Generale Securities analyst Wang Nan suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the industry chain-related targets, Zhongyi Xucheng, Tianfu Communications, Xinyisheng, Dingtong Technology, Zhaolong Interconnection, China Porcelain Electronics and so on.

Potential Stock Selection

(300308)

Increased profitability

the company expects to achieve a net profit of 0.3 billion -0.42 billion in the second quarter, up 9.1-53% year-on-year, with a median of 0.36 billion, up 31% year-on-year. The profitability of the company's core business has increased, mainly benefiting from the gradual increase in the proportion of high-end products such as 800G and the continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the product gross profit margin and net profit margin have been further improved. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the demand for 800G from overseas customers has grown rapidly since the beginning of this year, especially in the AI field. Since the end of March, different customers have successively added orders for AI optical modules. The company 800G and other new products occupy the first-mover advantage and higher share, leading position consolidation. Judging from the delivery rhythm, the company expects a significant increase in shipments of 800G in the second half of this year and next year, and the company expands its production capacity as planned to ensure the smooth delivery of orders.

Tianfu Communication (300394)

Net margin hits new high

the company's performance increased significantly month-on-month, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth in demand for high-rate products, which led to the continuous expansion of production and volume of some of the company's product lines; at the same time, exchange rate fluctuations in the first half of the year and the preferential policy of plus deduction for research and development expenses had a positive impact on the performance. In addition, the company's forward-looking layout of light engines and CPO direction, is expected to benefit from AI development of catalytic light engines and CPO continued to increase. Great Wall Securities pointed out that the company's net sales interest rate for the second bureau in 2023 was 37.67, and the net sales interest rate for the first half of the year was 35.24. Compared with the company's interim report since 2017, the net sales interest rate for the first half of 2023 reached a new high, and the profitability continued to develop well. With the development of AI for the network side architecture upgrade required high-speed optical module demand is strong, the company as a high-speed light engine mass production enterprise, the future is expected to achieve rapid development.

Xinyisheng (300502)

Further improvement in competitiveness

As the world's leading optical module leader, the company is the core supplier of overseas cloud giants and equipment manufacturers, and is expected to continue to benefit. At the same time, the company's Thai factory is under construction, the establishment of the Thai factory on the one hand to expand the company's global layout, the future is expected to cover more overseas customers. On the other hand, it can further supplement the company's production capacity and lay a solid foundation for the future release of high-end products. CITIC Securities pointed out that the company's leading layout in high-end products is expected to be the first to benefit from the trend of high-end modules driven by AI. At the same time, Alpine's equity delivery has been completed, the future is expected to further improve the company's silicon optical module and coherent optical module market competitiveness. The company's product leadership, has been ready for the future release of high-end modules, we are optimistic about the company's future performance growth potential.

Tai Chen Guang (300570)

Data center high-density connection outbreak

The company is the world's fiber optic high density connection (MPO) major enterprises, production capacity ranked in the world's top three, MPO products are all supplied to North America, mainly for data center construction. With the large-scale construction of Al data centers, MTP/ MPO high-density fiber optic connectors are used to connect servers and switch ports. The optical port density is further improved due to the hard demand for high-efficiency and high-speed interconnection between nodes in the supercomputing cluster. Guosheng Securities believes that high-density fiber optic connectors are the company's core flagship products, providing large data center construction for North American cloud manufacturers. With the rapid development of large model training and general AI driven by ChatGPT, the certainty of supercomputing demand has exploded. The company's 2023-2025 net profit is expected to be 2.33/4.32/0.508 billion yuan, AI computing power era company is expected to usher in a new round of double-click, maintain a "buy" rating.

02 New Energy Auto:

Stronger growth certainty

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the completion of automobile production and sales in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month. Among them, the performance of new energy vehicles continued to shine. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.6 and 31.6, and the market share reached 32.7. Some analysts pointed out that the new energy vehicle industry competition intensified, edge brands or face clearance, industry concentration is expected to increase. In order to cope with the cost pressure of the industry, the localization rate of the new energy industry chain is expected to continue to improve. Overall, as penetration continues to rise and concentration increases, the industry's future performance growth is more certain.

Lu Rixin, an analyst at orient securities, pointed out that after long-term adjustment, the plate has fully responded to the factors such as the deterioration of the pattern, the slowdown of growth rate and the decline of profits. At the same time, looking forward to next year, after the prices and profits of all links return to reasonable, the volume end of the industrial chain will still maintain considerable growth, and the plate is still expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 20%-30% under the stable, bring significant earnings per share end, in addition to some links began to clear, exports continue to improve, energy storage to maintain strong, multiple factors to enhance the positive logic, and the current industry company valuation is generally about 20 times, as time enters the second half of the year, short-term fundamentals to good + annual valuation switch are expected to bring considerable income space.

From the perspective of segmentation, Bank of China Securities analyst Zhu Peng believes that new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to grow at a high rate in 2023, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. It is suggested to pay attention to BYD, the domestic leader, as well as Yinlun shares benefiting from BYD, Tesla, Ideal and Huawei's industrial chain and new technologies, as well as Top Group, Xusheng shares, Selis, Qin 'an shares, etc. In the field of intelligent network connection, the penetration rate of intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and intelligent chassis has increased rapidly, with emphasis on the parts suppliers with increased penetration rate and strong domestic substitution, pay attention to light court information, etc.

Potential Stock Selection

BYD (002594)

Medium-and long-term investment value

With a number of self-developed core technologies, the company has created highly competitive new energy vehicle products, which have gained a firm foothold in the mainstream price belt of the mass market and achieved stable profits. With the launch of the Tengshi, looking up sub-brand, brand high-end is one of the future points of view, the company is expected to continue to expand the market space, improve the net profit of bicycles. CITIC Securities pointed out that it is expected that a series of new models are expected to be launched and delivered in the second half of the year. The new models are expected to continue to promote the company's sales volume and upgrade the product matrix to high-end. Export sales reached 18000 vehicles in July, a record high in a single month. Globalization is another major attraction in the future. The development of overseas markets is expected to open up the company's long-term growth space. As a leader in new energy vehicles, the company has strong certainty in sales and profitability. High-end and globalization are the company's future highlights and have medium-and long-term investment value.

Silver Wheel Shares (002126)

New Energy Business Accelerated Improvement

The company is a leading enterprise in domestic automotive thermal management and a leading enterprise in heat exchangers. It has formed a product system of 1+4 + N, and the product matrix is constantly enriched. In recent years, the proportion of passenger cars and new energy customers has continued to increase, rising to 42% and 20% respectively in 2022. As new energy customers continue to develop and overlay the value of bicycles to increase, new energy revenue growth space is large. Western Securities pointed out that the company's production capacity continues to expand and its international competitiveness continues to increase. The current passenger car heat pump air conditioning projects, battery and chip thermal management projects under construction are conducive to the continuous improvement of the company's competitiveness in the new energy field. The company's products cover from engines, batteries, motors, electronic control to body thermal management, exhaust gas treatment, and can provide customers with a full range of products worth hundreds to thousands of yuan. With the obvious growth trend of thermal management integration, the value of bicycles is expected to continue to increase.

Bethel (603596)

Product line continues to enrich

The company has been working in the field of braking for many years, entering the supply chain of several OEMs through foundation brakes, andWe have accumulated rich experience in the development of braking products in a number of fixed points. The company's braking products have high reliability and strong scale delivery ability, which has gradually deepened the cooperative relationship with customers. The company continued to optimize its product and customer structure, and the number of new fixed-point projects increased year-on-year, laying the foundation for subsequent sustained growth. Guolian Securities pointed out that the company's products have been broadened to the steering field, and the product structure of the automotive chassis system has been gradually improved and the product line has become richer. At present, the company has laid out the chassis braking, steering and ADAS business, the future company is expected to play a synergistic effect between products, for the host plant to provide a full range of product solutions, including sensors, smart driving controllers and wire-controlled actuators, is expected to grow into a platform-based auto parts enterprises.

Longitudinal and Longitudinal Constant Run (688326)

Comprehensive business layout

the company is more comprehensive in technology coverage and strategic layout, with full stack solution capability covering hardware, underlying software, operating system and middleware, core algorithms and other aspects, and a comprehensive business layout including intelligent driving domain, body and comfort domain, power domain, chassis domain, intelligent network connection and other automotive fields, which can occupy a greater advantage in industry competition, to provide customers with better service. Debang Securities pointed out that since the mass production of ADAS products in 2016, the company's business scale has continued to grow at a high speed. Relying on Mobileye, TI and other chip leaders to build product competitiveness, the company has become a domestic intelligent driving electronic products leading manufacturers. The company continues to increase research and development, and actively develop new technology solutions such as the integration of the line, is expected to rely on high-quality technology and services to achieve rapid expansion of business scale.

03 Semiconductor :

Industry showing signs of improvement

The bottom of the semiconductor cycle is showing signs that the recovery of consumer demand is still uncertain, and we need to pay attention to the progress of the recovery of downstream demand in the second half of 2023. Some analysts pointed out that according to the disclosed performance, the revenue and net profit of most semiconductor companies in the second quarter increased month on month, showing signs of industry improvement. Industry point of view, since December 2021 semi-conductor sales growth reached its peak, this round of business climate sinking has continued for a long time, the semiconductor industry fundamentals "bottoming" has been basically completed, this consecutive months of stable ring growth or will bring a ray of dawn for the semiconductor industry bottoming out. At present, the country's emphasis on the integrated circuit industry to upgrade, industrial policy is expected to increase, the process of domestic substitution is expected to accelerate.

China Development Securities analyst Deng Wei pointed out that looking forward to the third quarter, with the supply side of the production reduction efforts to increase, as well as the second half of the year into the traditional peak season of the electronics industry, demand continues to recover slowly, the storage industry is expected to take the lead out of the bottom of the cycle, thus driving the recovery of the industrial chain. It is recommended to grasp the certainty, pay attention to the improvement of the crop rate month-on-month, the policy dividend to enjoy more fully, and benefit from the domestic substitution of continuous release of the sealing test, foundry, equipment and other sub-areas.

According to SIA data, the year-on-year decline in global semiconductor sales narrowed for 2 consecutive months and achieved month-on-month growth for 4 consecutive months, with China's sales narrowing and month-on-month growth for 4 consecutive months, reaffirming that the bottom of the current semiconductor cycle has passed. Guoxin Securities analyst Hu Jian said, taking into account the second half of last year, the terminal active inventory and cycle down the low base effect, continue to recommend the sub-sectors of the leading long electric technology, Tongfu micro-power, Jingchen shares, Shengbang shares, core friends micro, SMIC and so on. In addition, August is the semi-annual report intensive disclosure period, it is recommended to pay attention to the second quarter revenue benefit downstream re-stocking and domestic substitution of leading enterprises Zhuo Shengwei, Ai for electronics, Weir shares, micro-companies and so on.

Potential Stock Selection

(600584)

Performance increased month on month

the company's capacity utilization rate has been repaired since the second quarter, the net profit of the parent company increased by 205.72-296.69 percent month-on-month, the performance inflection point is clear, back to the growth track. Northeast Securities pointed out that the company as the world's third, mainland China's first outsourcing testing manufacturers, the leading position is solid. At the same time, it has industry-leading advanced semiconductor packaging technology in important fields such as 5G communications, high-performance computing, consumer, automotive and industrial. Overall, the company's advanced packaging technology accumulation and layout is the company to seize the downstream emerging demand release opportunities, to help the performance continued to pick up. In addition, the company continues to develop advanced packaging while gradually promoting the rapid growth of demand for automotive electronics, 5G communications, high-performance computing, storage and other high value-added market strategic layout. The product structure is continuously optimized and has stronger performance flexibility.

Tongfu Microelectronics (002156)

Capacity continues to expand

the company is the fifth OSAT manufacturer in the world and the second OSAT manufacturer in mainland China. it has built the top 2.5D, 3D packaging platform and super-large FCBGA research and development platform in China, which can provide customers with wafer-level and substrate-level Chiplet sealing and testing solutions. Multi-layer stack NANDFlash and LPDDR packaging realize stable mass production. In Nantong, Hefei, Suzhou, Penang, Xiamen and other places of layout, production capacity continued to expand. Northeast Securities pointed out that the company has continuously strengthened its in-depth cooperation with AI giants such as AMD with its advanced technological advantages such as 7nm, 5nm, FCBGA and Chiplet. In 2022, more than 50% of its revenue will come from AMD. At the same time, the company is AMD's largest packaging and testing supplier, accounting for more than 80% of AMD's total orders. In the future, as AMD continues to grow, the company will continue to benefit from it.

Jingchen shares (688099)

Profitability Recovery

The company's automotive electronic chips have entered a number of well-known car companies at home and abroad, and have been successfully mass-produced and commercialized. Series of chips using advanced process technology, built-in up to 5Tops neural network processor, some products have passed the car regulations certification. Haitong Securities pointed out that the scale effect generated by the company's revenue growth further led to the recovery of profitability. In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 30.4373 million yuan, and in the second quarter, it achieved a net profit of 154.2743 million yuan, an increase of 406.86 from the previous quarter. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the consumer electronics industry, while the company relies on its own global stable high-quality customer base and SoC platform advantages, further increase the expansion of advantageous products, accelerate the introduction of new products and the development of new market opportunities, the company expects the third quarter revenue is expected to further increase month on month.

Zhuo Shengwei (300782)

Start the secondary growth curve

The company has long been committed to RF front-end chip design and product sales, covering RF discrete devices and RF module product lines. The company's gross margin has always been stable at more than 50%, and profitability has remained at a high level. In addition, the company continues to increase its research and development efforts, with research and development costs accounting for up to 12.22 percent in 2022. Societe Generale Securities pointed out that the global RF front-end high-end market is mainly dominated by US and Japanese companies. The world's top five manufacturers occupy more than 80% of the market, domestic substitution still has a large space. In recent years, benefiting from national policy support and domestic substitution dividends, it is expected that the rate of RF localization is expected to accelerate in the future. As a domestic RF front-end leader, the company fully covers the RF discrete and RF module product line, customer coverage is comprehensive, with the core high-performance filter production line mass production, the future independent research and development of PAMID is also expected to be launched, or will become the company's secondary growth curve.