Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index Crawls Back Above Halfway Mark
He Xiao
/SOURCE : yicai
Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index Crawls Back Above Halfway Mark

(Yicai Global) Dec. 6 -- The Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index, which measures how top thinkers believe the Chinese economy performed in the month prior, hit 50.01 in November after a sub-50 score a month earlier.

Three quarters of the chief economists surveyed believe the China economy will remain under pressure in future, while 100 percent expect the positive fiscal policy and neutral monetary policy to continue.

Key takeaways and average predictions from the survey, compared with figures from the previous month, were

-  The growth rate in the consumer and producer price indexes slowed.

-  The CPI annual growth rate fell to 2.39 percent from 2.5 percent.

-  Total retail sales grew 8.83 percent, up from 8.6 percent.

-  Average annual growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.82 percent from 5.9 percent.

-  Average growth rate of fixed asset investment rose to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent.

-  Average growth rate of real estate development investment dropped to 9.48 percent from 9.7 percent.

-  Annual export growth fell to 10.63 percent from 15.6 percent.

-  Annual import growth fell to 14.19 percent from 21.4 percent.

-  Trade surplus rose to USD35 billion from USD34 billion.

-  New loan amounts jumped to CNY1.1 trillion (USD160 billion) from CNY679 billion.

-  Social financing total rose to CNY1.4 trillion from CNY729 billion.

-  Annual growth of M2 grew to 8.04 percent from 8 percent.

-  China's forex reserves fell to USD3.03 trillion from USD3.05 trillion.

The average of the economists' expectations for the yuan put it at 6.92 against the dollar at the end of this year, while forecasts for the end of next year varied from a 5.03 percent loss to a 6.3 percent gain.

Editor: James Boynton

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