Will Global Trade Grow Faster Than Global Nominal GDP?
Yicai Global
DATE:  Feb 18 2020
/ SOURCE:  yicai
Will Global Trade Grow Faster Than Global Nominal GDP? Will Global Trade Grow Faster Than Global Nominal GDP?

No.

Global trade growth will recover modestly to 2.7 percent, according to the latest prediction from the World Trade Organization, while the International Monetary Foundation forecasts global economic growth will rebound to 3.4 percent in 2020, and that global trade will still grow slower than global nominal gross domestic product.

Reasons behind the change lie in the emergence of trade protectionism and the transition in the global value chain as a whole, two trends which may continue in 2020. It also remains to be seen whether the global trade conflict will escalate or spread to other parts of the world in 2020. 

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Keywords:   Prediction 2020