Will China's Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate be Lower Than That of Nominal GDP?
Yicai Global
DATE:  Feb 18 2020
/ SOURCE:  yicai
Will China's Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate be Lower Than That of Nominal GDP? Will China's Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate be Lower Than That of Nominal GDP?

Yes, but the gap between the two will not be large.

Economic growth is the basis of fiscal revenue growth. When the economy expands, the rate of fiscal revenue growth is higher than the pace of economic growth, and during a downturn, it may be lower than the economic growth rate.

In recent years, as economic growth continues to slow, fiscal revenue growth has been slower than nominal growth in gross domestic product, especially last year. Affected by large tax and fee cuts to the tune of CNY2.3 trillion (USD335.5 billion), fiscal revenue growth hit a three-decade low, much slower than the nominal GDP growth rate.

Economic growth may slow further in 2020, but the possibility of the government sanctioning new large tax and fee reduction policies during the year is rather low. However, tail-end factors brought by last year's cuts will still slash several hundred billion yuan in fiscal revenue this year. Adding other factors, the growth rate of fiscal revenue in 2020 is expected to remain under pressure and the annual growth rate will be slower than nominal GDP growth.

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Keywords:   Prediction 2020