(Yicai) Nov. 8 -- The impact of Donald Trump’s reelection as US president on the international trade landscape will hinge in part on the personnel choices he makes for his trade team, especially for the key role of US Trade Representative, according to the head of a Chinese think tank.

During his first administration, which ran from January 2017 to January 2021, Trump repeatedly threatened to withdraw the United States from the Geneva-based World Trade Organization.

“Though the final decision does not rest solely with Trump, his performance during his first term shows a clear negative attitude toward international organizations,” Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, told Yicai.

This stems from Trump’s belief that these organizations restrict the US’ freedom of action, Tu said, noting that the possibility of the country leaving the WTO is actually “relatively small.”

Robert Lighthizer, Trumps’ previous trade representative, hoped to establish a WTO that operates mainly within a small circle of Western countries, thereby splitting and excluding some members, including China and Russia, Tu noted, but the design of the WTO system made it hard to achieve this goal.

US allies also hope that the world’s biggest economy will stay in the WTO, Tu said, as the formation of smaller multilateral trade systems would still require the WTO framework.

Trump’s choice for trade representative this time will be particularly important, Tu noted.

Strategic Value

The strategic value of the WTO for the United States is no longer primarily based on its trade relationship with China, Tu said, and though the US may worry that if it leaves the WTO, China could take over its leadership role, this is not the most central consideration.

"More importantly, the WTO remains the most effective platform for the US to manage its trade relationships with over 160 other partners,” Tu said. “If the US were to exit the WTO, it would face the enormous challenge of rebuilding trade relations with these countries.

“Establishing new bilateral trade frameworks would not only be time-consuming and labor-intensive but also unlikely to achieve the efficiency of the existing multilateral mechanism,” he said. 

"Therefore, staying within the WTO framework allows the US to maintain its freedom of action while enjoying the benefits of the multilateral trade system,” he added. “This is particularly important.”

‘Widespread Concern’

There is “widespread concern” within the WTO about Trump’s return to the White House, Tu pointed out.

“During Trump's first term, many members, including those from Europe, attempted to communicate and coordinate with the US, but with little success,” he said. “So the WTO now has to prepare for the worst-case scenario." 

Another impending issue is the WTO’s leadership. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala's four-year term expires next August, and should the US opposes her reappointment, the WTO will have to find a candidate who is acceptable to the US, Tu noted.

Much uncertainty surrounds whether or not the other WTO members would be willing to accept a candidate chosen by the United States, he said.

Editor: Tom Litting