(Yicai) Nov. 8 -- Donald Trump's re-election as the president of the United States could deliver a blow to China's iron and steel industry but solar power companies could stay relatively safe, according to industry insiders.

With Trump's win, steel prices could face larger downward pressures, Ge Xin, deputy director at Lange Steel Information Research Center, told Yicai. Domestic steelmakers may face even more severe losses in the future than this year, Ge added.

Only a small portion of Chinese steel products are exported directly to the US, Ge said. But Trump could hike tariffs on major downstream products using steel from China, such as engineering machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, he added.

China's steel exports to the US have been falling in recent years. The US market makes up less than one percent of China's direct steel exports. Meanwhile, China has increased such direct shipments to Belt and Road countries, South America, and South Africa.

However, Trump may pressure US allies, requiring them to increase tariffs or collecting anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made steel products, which would weaken demand, Ge said.

The possible tariff additions could make Chinese steel mills increase their exports to deal with the short-term implications, Wu Wenzhang, chairman of steel information provider SteelHome, said to Yicai. But the damage would start showing in the medium to long term, he added.

PV Firms Remain Safe

Trump's next term will have almost no effect on China's photovoltaic exports and is expected to have limited impacts on firms that have set up plants in the US, Chinese institutions predicted.

Not many PV products are directly exported to the US from China due to the existing tariff conditions which are tough, Oriental Securities wrote in a research note. From January to September, China's exports of solar cells to the US made up 0.5 percent of its total. The ratio was 0.3 percent for solar modules. Even Trump's proposal of adding 60 percent tariffs on Chinese-made goods would have almost no impact on China's PV exports, the brokerage added.

Trump is not very likely to terminate the Inflation Reduction Act, a key act of the Biden administration that includes subsidies to spur a shift to green energy, per Oriental Securities. Encouraged by favorable policies, Chinese PV firms such as Longi Green Energy Technology, JinkoSolar Holding, Trina Solar, and JA Solar Technology initiated plans to set up factories in the US last year.

Canceling or diluting the IRA would be difficult, Guolian Securities said, adding that the US remains a premium market for new energy players' expansion.

How much an American president can impact the energy industry is often overestimated, another Chinese institution pointed out. In the early days of presidency, Biden signed executive orders to reduce oil and gas developments, but the follow-up was slow. At last, America's oil and gas capacities continued to grow during Biden's term.

When Trump was president for the first time between 2016 and 2020, the nation's installed capacity of large wind power and PV projects still increased about 56 percent from the previous four-year period.

Editors: Shi Yi, Emmi Laine