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(Yicai) April 7 -- The global commodity market declined for two straight trading days after President Donald Trump announced the "reciprocal tariffs" on all US trading partners on April 2, leading to various price pressures and intensifying market expectations of a global economic slowdown, according to experts.
The unexpected new tariffs have significantly increased costs for other countries to trade with the US, boosting expectations for global economic growth to slow and weakening demand for commodities, Li Mingyu, deputy director of Xinhu Futures Research Institute, told Yicai.
"The tariffs have suppressed short- and medium-term demand in the global copper market," noted Wang Yunfei, head of Shandong Gold Futures' investment consulting department. The deglobalization trend will weaken global commodity demand in the long term, leading to a bearish outlook for copper prices, Wang added.
"Even after market sentiment stabilizes, the deteriorated trade environment will continue to suppress investment and the recovery of demand, exacerbating the recession risk," according to Wang.
The decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries+, a group of 22 oil-exporting countries that decide the global price of crude oil, to hike production by an average of 411,000 barrels a day starting next month has further dampened market sentiment in the global oil market, which was already overshadowed by the "reciprocal tariffs," leading to a further price drop, said Yang An, oil head at Haitong Futures.
After the sharp drop in crude oil futures, the market effects are expected to transmit to downstream chemical products, including purified terephthalic acid and ethylene glycol, an expert from the chemical sector said to Yicai.
The unexpected US tariffs, combined with the countermeasures that several countries have implemented or will propose, have raised the risks of inflation and demand contraction, and thereby on global economic growth, Xiao Yufei, head of Nanhua Futures' non-ferrous metals research team, told Yicai. This has led to the prices of copper, nickel, tin, and other major commodities tumbling, making them particularly vulnerable to tariffs impact, Xiao said.
Although non-ferrous metal prices will likely gradually stabilize after digesting the tariffs shock, the rise of trade protectionism will continue suppressing future demand, Xiao pointed out.
Investors must stay cautious as the negative sentiment in the global market will spill over into the Chinese commodity futures and stock markets, noted Xinhu Futures' Li, adding that there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of panic selling.
Editors: Tang Shihua, Martin Kadiev