(Yicai) Feb. 27 -- The 21st German Federal Parliamentary election has concluded. During the voting, Gu Xuewu, tenured chair professor of political science and international relations at the University of Bonn and director of its Center for Global Studies, told Yicai that the momentum of anti-establishmentarian forces is uncontainable.

The German election may further exacerbate anti-establishmentarianism, even though the Alternative for Germany is unlikely to become the largest party in the short term, as the national conservative political party may win the elections in two to three cycles, Gu noted.

Preliminary results released by the German Federal Election Commission on Feb. 24 show that the alliance between the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, with Joachim-Friedrich Martin Josef Merz as the chancellor candidate, received 28.6 percent of the votes, the AfD secured 20.8 percent of the votes, and the Social Democratic Party, to which German Chancellor Scholz belongs, received 16.4 percent of the votes, an historic low for the party.

When asked whether US President Donald Trump's administration and its policies would further fuel the development of right-wing forces in Europe, Gu said: “To put it bluntly, today's America is tomorrow's Europe.”

The Uncontainable Momentum of Anti-Establishmentarian Forces

Yicai: How do you define the establishment of anti-establishmentarian forces in Europe? Can we see any evolutionary trends through the German election?

Gu Xuewu: Generally speaking, I am not inclined to use labels like 'far-right' or 'far-left' to describe political parties, such as the AfD. The right-wing label attributed to them is given by the establishmentarian forces.

The so-called right-wing parties we are discussing do not consider themselves as right-wing. They never claim to be right-wing but say they represent the 'true mainstream public.' Therefore, when discussing these concepts, I usually avoid using the term 'right-wing.' Instead, I prefer a more neutral distinction between establishmentarian and anti-establishmentarian parties.

The parties I refer to as anti-establishmentarian mainly include the groups labeled as 'right-wing,' 'far-right,' or 'far-left' by the establishmentarian forces, such as the AfD. Although these groups are commonly seen as far-right in public opinion, they have strong left-wing elements as well. Thus, using traditional classifications like 'right-wing,' 'far-left,' or 'centrist' to divide Germany's or Europe's political parties is clearly no longer applicable.

From my perspective, Germany's and Europe's political landscape should be divided into only two major camps: the establishmentarian and the anti-establishmentarian. The rivalry between these two forces is in a continuous state of development.

Yicai: How effective has Germany's establishmentarianism been in resisting anti-establishmentarianism?

Gu: The rise of right-wing forces in Europe is ongoing and has grown ever stronger. However, Germany's so-called establishmentarianism is trying to make a comeback and resist the fierce offensive of the anti-establishmentarian forces. But for now, their response can only be described as passive defense, lacking the ability to launch an effective counterattack. Therefore, it is inaccurate to say that Germany's establishmentarianism has come back.

The anti-establishmentarian forces are putting up a tenacious resistance. Overall, their presence in Europe and Germany has reached about 30 percent. If we look at Germany's election polls, the AfD's support rate is around 22 percent, and the left-wing anti-establishmentarian forces also account for 7 to 8 percent of the support rate, adding up to nearly 30 percent. Across Europe, the strength of the anti-establishmentarian parties is even greater. For example, in the European Parliament, the left-wing and right-wing groups have formed an anti-establishmentarian bloc accounting for 35 to 40 percent of the seats.

Whether the establishmentarian forces in Germany can hold on depends on two factors. First, the degree of external support to the expansion of anti-establishmentarian parties, including the intensity and intention of intervention. Second, whether the establishmentarian forces can quickly absorb the political propositions of anti-establishmentarianism internally and put them into practice to form a national will. Speeding this process will directly affect the establishmentarians' ability to successfully counter the anti-establishmentarian offensive.

The offensive of Germany's anti-establishmentarian forces is very strong, and with the influence of external factors such as the United States, Germany's political future remains unpredictable. Germany has not yet shown a trend of the entire political situation returning to establishmentarianism.

On the contrary, establishmentarianism seems to be falling into a state of anxiety and confusion. The phenomenon of early elections in Germany is a manifestation of this situation. The so-called 'early elections' actually reflect the huge internal divisions among establishmentarian forces, almost to the point where governance cannot be sustained. That is why Germany has seen such a rare early election.

Establishmentarians cannot agree on the direction and methods of governance and have no choice but to seek to hand over the decision-making power to the people through early elections, which is precisely what anti-establishmentarian forces hope to see. Therefore, the claim that establishmentarianism is coming back is premature at this stage.

Today's America Is Tomorrow's Europe

Yicai: Will the Trump administration and its policies further fuel the development of right-wing forces in Europe?

Gu: In my view, the most direct way to put it is 'today's America is tomorrow's Europe.'

The Trump administration does not represent the traditional right-wing forces but rather an anti-establishmentarian force. So-called populism is, in fact, a reaction against elitism. Even though Trump himself belongs to the elite class in terms of economic status, politically, he sees himself as having little connection with the 'deep state' elite class. From former President Roosevelt to former President Biden, these individuals represent the 'elites' he opposes, whom he believes are the root cause of the US decline.

The Make America Great Again movement led by Trump is essentially an anti-establishmentarian populist movement that has achieved great success. And its next goal is to expand globally.

The rise of anti-establishmentarianism in the US has already affected Europe's political situation. After successfully 'occupying' the White House and Washington, D.C., the next target will be to extend this ideology globally. The core of this movement is to change the international political landscape by opposing traditional elitism, and the actions of tech leaders like Tesla's Chief Executive Elon Musk are a manifestation of this trend. In fact, Musk's promotion of the AfD on his social media platform X reflects their intention to globalize this anti-establishmentarian idea.

This is not just a regional phenomenon but a global trend. With the widespread use of big data, artificial intelligence, and social media, the speed and scope of information dissemination have greatly increased, accelerating the spread of anti-establishmentarian ideas. For example, the AfD's party congress election of Alice Weidel as chancellor candidate was livestreamed globally on X, demonstrating the immense influence of this force.

Therefore, the policy impact of Trump's election is far-reaching. The Trump administration has already turned Washington into a stronghold of anti-establishmentarianism. Next, he hopes to expand this model to major European countries and promote anti-establishmentarian forces to gain more political influence in Europe.

The influence of this movement cannot be underestimated. What we are seeing now may only be the beginning. In the future, anti-establishmentarianism may spread from the US to Europe and even further to other regions. We will have to wait and see.

Yicai: Has Trump's election sounded the alarm for Europe's establishmentarianism? Will it force the establishmentarians to reflect on and adjust their policies to face the challenge?

Gu: The issue is not whether the alarm has been sounded, as this situation has already occurred to a very significant degree. The establishmentarians are not unaware. In fact, they realized this as early as Trump's first election in 2016, when the 'alarm' went off. However, Trump's election did not immediately lead to a profound reflection by the establishmentarians. Instead, many mistakenly thought it was just a temporary fluctuation. So, after the Biden administration took office, the establishmentarians let their guard down.

But when Trump made a comeback, the issue was no longer about sounding the alarm but about how to deal with this increasingly intense challenge. The real problem facing the establishmentarians now is how to effectively counter the fierce offensive of anti-establishmentarian forces. As I said earlier, the power transition of anti-establishmentarianism is, in a sense, a rational and peaceful process. Even though these political struggles are not violent, their impact is extremely profound.

Europe may experience more elections, especially after the next one or two rounds, when the power of the anti-establishmentarian movement may rise significantly. From a European perspective, the national political landscape may undergo fundamental changes.

Among the European Union's 27 member states, establishmentarian parties in six countries have faced significant challenges, including nations like the Netherlands and Italy. As for Germany, despite the challenges from the anti-establishmentarians, I believe the political situation is relatively stable, particularly because the CDU and the CSU still command about 30 percent of voters, which means that although the anti-establishmentarian movement has gained ground, it has not yet posed a decisive threat. However, the situation in Germany is still evolving, and it is possible that the anti-establishmentarian parties may further expand their presence in the parliament in the future.

Editor: Chen Juan, Futura Costaglione