(Yicai) March 25 -- Some 20,400 kindergartens have closed in China over the past two years, mainly as a result of the nation’s declining birth rate, Yicai calculated using official figures. Over time, the decline will also impact elementary, middle, and high schools and then colleges.

China had 274,400 kindergartens last year, compared with 289,200 a year earlier and 294,800 in 2021, according to the Ministry of Education. 

The closures closely relate to the decline in births. Nine million babies were born in 2023, down from 9.6 million the previous year, 10.6 million in 2021, 12 million in 2020, 14.7 million in 2019, and 15.2 million in 2018. 

Kindergartens in rural areas and regions with a population outflow are most affected, Ding Changfa, an adjunct economic professor at Xiamen University, told Yicai. Most public kindergartens in urban areas are less impacted thanks to better educational conditions, while private ones are more affected, he added.

Around 92,800 elementary schools will be needed in China by 2035, down from 144,200 in 2020, Qiao Jinzhong, an adjunct professor at the higher education research academy of Beijing Normal University's Faculty of Education, predicted based on a model developed by his team. Demand for middle schools will drop by 3,800 to 47,900, he added.

There will also be a surplus of about 1.5 million elementary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, based on the current teacher-student ratio, according to Qiao. Middle school teachers will first be in shortage and then in excess, he added.

Good universities will not have issues enrolling students, Ding said. The most impacted will be some private ones, including vocational and undergraduate colleges, he noted, adding that some public colleges lacking distinctive attributes and competitiveness may also face enrollment difficulties.

Editors: Xu Wei, Martin Kadiev