Optimism Increases Among China’s Economists for Full-Year GDP Growth, Survey Shows

Optimism Increases Among China’s Economists for Full-Year GDP Growth, Survey Shows

He Xiao

Date: Thu, 10/12/2017 - 20:19 / Keywords: Survey, GDP, CPI, CNY
Optimism Increases Among China’s Economists for Full-Year GDP Growth, Survey Shows
Optimism Increases Among China’s Economists for Full-Year GDP Growth, Survey Shows

(Yicai Global) Oct. 12 -- Economists raised their projections for full-year gross domestic product growth from 6.65 percent to 6.76 percent, according to Yicai Global’s latest survey of chief economists. Annual GDP growth for the third quarter will be around 6.75 percent, lower than the 6.9 percent seen in the second quarter, they forecast.

The Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index was 51.08 this month, marking the 14th straight month above the 50 mark. Sentiment among respondents suggests that the economy may not slow as sharply as previously predicted.

Nearly all economists surveyed do not expect China’s central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio across the board within the year, and predict a continuation of stable and neutral monetary policy. M2 money supply and new loan growth are expected to rise in September following two months of decline.

New loan growth is set to be higher than that seen in August, while aggregate financing to the real economy will fall compared with the previous month. 

The yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar appreciated and then depreciated in September, and economists predict the rate to fall to 6.66 by the end of October.

The average forecast for the consumer price index for September, which will be officially announced next week, is 1.57 percent, down from the 1.8 percent seen in August, while the average prediction for growth in total retail sales of consumer goods was 10.14 percent, 0.04 percentage point higher than the August figure.

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Keywords: Survey, GDP, CPI, CNY