(Yicai) Dec. 12 -- With Donald Trump heading back to the White House, a tariff conflict between China and the United States seems inevitable. But the pace at which the next Trump administration implements tariff hikes may be slower than the market expects, giving China time to prepare during this buffer period.

Although Trump threatened during his presidential campaign to impose tariffs of more than 60 percent on all goods imported from China, the current situation suggests that he will need to prioritize domestic issues first, such as cutting bureaucracy, so any tariff increases may be gradual.

Scott Bessent, the Wall Street hedge fund investor nominated as US Treasury Secretary, also mentioned in a recent interview that his policy priorities would include fulfilling Trump’s tax-cutting promises, including making the tax cuts from his first term permanent and eliminating taxes on tips, social security benefits, and overtime pay.

Furthermore, public discontent caused by high inflation was one of the main reasons for the Democratic Party's electoral defeat, and will remain a priority issue for Trump’s second term. Imposing big tariff hikes on China in the near term may not be the best strategic choice based under the current circumstances.

For these reasons, China may have a buffer period of about one year. During this time, China should accelerate the restructuring of its industrial chains, address the issues related to the real estate market and local government debt, and stabilize the domestic economy to prepare for the impact of the tariffs that will come later.

Trump’s tariff threats are not solely aimed at China. Other countries and regions, including Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico, are also targets. This could lead to greater divisions between the United States and its allies, offering China an opportunity to improve economic ties with the European Union and Japan.

Developed countries have begun taking steps to respond to the tariff increases. For instance, Japan and the United Kingdom have agreed to establish a new framework of economic “2+2” meetings, involving both their foreign and finance ministers, to help rebuild the international economic order, which has regressed as a result of rising trade protectionism.

In the long run, as long as China focuses on its own affairs and continues to push forward with reform and opening-up, the likelihood of a complete decoupling between China and the US, as well as other developed countries, is not high.

(The author is vice president and chief economist at JD.Com Group.)

Editors: Dou Shicong, Emmi Laine