(Yicai) April 23 -- Eastern China’s economic powerhouse Jiangsu province is edging closer to becoming the country’s most productive region, nearly overtaking Guangdong, which has held the top spot for nearly 40 years.

In the first quarter of this year, Jiangsu’s gross domestic product reached CNY3.31 trillion (USD453 billion), a 5.9 percent year-on-year increase, according to data released yesterday.

Meanwhile, Guangdong’s GDP came in slightly higher at over CNY3.35 trillion, rising 4.1 percent at constant prices. This narrowed the GDP gap between the two provinces to CNY43.7 billion (USD6 billion), down from CNY49 billion previously.

The southern province that is home to cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan has led as China’s largest provincial economy for 36 consecutive years, having overtaken Jiangsu in 1989. The gap between them peaked in 2019 at CNY933 billion (USD127.6 billion) but has since narrowed as China accelerates its economic restructuring.

With faster growth, Jiangsu, which includes major cities such as Nanjing, Wuxi, and Suzhou, may soon take the lead. In the first quarter alone, Jiangsu added CNY206.8 billion to its GDP, compared to Guangdong’s CNY201.5 billion gain.

Stronger Across the Board 

Jiangsu outperformed Guangdong in the three main pillars of economic activity—investment, consumption, and exports. 

During the first quarter, Jiangsu’s fixed-asset investment edged up by 0.4 percent, supported by a 6.1 percent increase in manufacturing investment and an 8.3 percent rise in infrastructure spending. These gains offset a 12.5 percent decline in real estate investment. In contrast, Guangdong’s fixed-asset investment fell by 6.2 percent, weighed down by a steep 15.2 percent drop in real estate investment.

Retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong grew by only 2.5 percent, lagging behind Jiangsu’s 5.6 percent growth. Both merchandise retail and catering revenues in Jiangsu expanded at a faster pace than in Guangdong.

In foreign trade, Guangdong recorded a 4.2 percent increase—2.9 percentage points above the national average—despite external uncertainties. However, Jiangsu still took the lead with a 5 percent rise in total imports and exports. Notably, Jiangsu’s exports surged by 9.6 percent, while imports declined by 3 percent.

One of Jiangsu’s core strengths is its balanced regional development. The province has five cities with GDPs exceeding CNY1 trillion and six cities in the CNY500 billion to CNY1 trillion range. Even Lianyungang, the smallest among Jiangsu’s 13 major cities, reported a GDP just 17 percent lower than that of Suzhou, the province’s largest city.

Despite Jiangsu’s progress, an economic expert told Yicai that Guangdong’s position as China’s top province is likely to remain secure in the near term. As the national population continues to age and decline, Guangdong’s demographic advantages will help sustain its central role in the country’s economy.

Editor: Emmi Laine